ITALIAN AMBASSADOR TO TEHRAN SHARES INSIGHTS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 000897

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2015
TAGS: KNNP PARM PREL TRGY MNUC IR IT IAEA
SUBJECT: ITALIAN AMBASSADOR TO TEHRAN SHARES INSIGHTS ON
IRANIAN POLITICS AND SOCIETY

REF: DUBAI 838

Classified By: Pol M/C Tom Countryman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Italy's Ambassador to Iran believes that most
Iranians favor better relations with the United States, but
at the same time support Iran's efforts to obtain nuclear
capabilities. The upcoming Presidential elections could help
resolve this dilemma by offering prospects, if Rafsanjani
were to become President, of more constructive cooperation
with the United States. The Ambassador also offered
suggestions on how the United States could better target its
programs aimed at promoting reform in Iran, and said that the
G-8 offers a valuable forum for discussing Iran, since it
would help reign in Russia. End summary.

Nukes or Better Relationship with the US?
--------------


2. (C) Italy's Ambassador to Iran, Roberto Toscano, told Pol
MC and PolOff during his recent visit to Rome that most
Iranians list improved relations with the United States as a
top priority. The only other equally pro-American country,
he said, is Cuba. At the same time, however, an equally
large majority of Iranians view their nuclear program as an
issue of national pride. They look at Pakistan and "other"
regional countries with nuclear capabilities and ask, why not
Iran, a major power in the region? Toscano acknowledged that
the Iranian government's quest for nuclear capabilities puts
it at odds with the desire of most Iranians to have a better
relationship with the US. Iran faces the dilemma of how to
choose between these two incompatible goals, he said, and the
West needs to help force their hand.


3. (C) On Iranian interference in Iraq, Toscano said he
believes that the Iranian government recognizes that a stable
Iraq is in its own interests. Toscano suggested that the G-8
would be an excellent venue in which to discuss Iran, not
least of which because it would draw Russia in. He didn't
understand why the UK resisted this idea.

Presidential Elections Offer Glimmer of Hope
--------------


4. (C) Toscano said that Iran is having difficulties coming
up with two viable conservative candidates (he dismissed any
chances of a reformist candidate) for the June Presidential
election. Rafsanjani, he said, would be the lesser of the
evils, and would offer better chances for improved relations
with the United States. He argued that Rafsanjani wants to
reestablish dialogue with the United States, and, as someone
who could actually bring some power back to the Presidency,
would have some say over the nuclear program. In the
meantime, the mullahs are hanging on to power as long as they
can and, at least until the elections, any renouncement of
the nuclear program would be "political suicide." There will
therefore be no resolution on the nuclear issue before the
elections.

Iranian Society: Potential But No Will For Political Reform
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Toscano described Iranian society as having a young,
educated, and sophisticated population. Iranians travel
abroad extensively and the better off often maintain separate
homes (along with separate passports) in London, Paris, etc.
Unfortunately, however, after decades of "revolution," most
people are resigned to the current political situation and do
not believe that anything will change or that there are
adequate political mechanisms to promote change. Young
people cannot reconcile the country's wealth with the
widespread poverty and blame it on the mullahs' blatant
kleptocracy. And, Toscano said, they are right.

US Should Shoot For More Bang for the Buck
--------------


6. (C) Toscano offered suggestions on how US programs could
have a more effective impact on cultivating reformists in
Iran. Iranians, he said, already have plenty of access to
the outside world through satellite TV, the internet,
international travel, etc. Rather than throw money into
radio broadcasting (along the lines of the VOA program during
the Cold War),Toscano advocated more strategic funding
initiatives, such as sponsoring purely cultural exchanges and
other events that can help rekindle Iranian interest in
political activism. He cited the visit of a US philosophy


professor as having been a major event, intellectually and
politically. Toscano was working on an idea to bring in a
group of Italian Christian Democrats to show that a
faith-based party can play a role in politics without having
religion dominate its agenda.

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2005ROME00897 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL