ITALY: ON IRAQ CENTER-LEFT MOVES RIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 003936

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS IZ IT IRAQI FREEDOM ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALY: ON IRAQ CENTER-LEFT MOVES RIGHT

REF: A. ROME 3376

B. ROME 3467

C. ROME 3763

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: DS Party Secretary Piero Fassino says that
if a Center-Left government comes to power next spring it
would withdraw troops from Iraq in close coordination with
the Iraqi government, the U.S. and other allies. A DS
Official told us that Center-Left PM candidate Romano Prodi
had approved Fassino's statement in advance. Reformist
members of the Center-left have embraced Fassino's proposal,
but the Greens and Italian Communist party, both member's of
Prodi's Union coalition, have threatened to abandon the
coalition if Italian troop withdrawal from Iraq is not
immediate. END SUMMARY.

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CENTER LEFT TAKES MODERATE VIEW ON IRAQ DEPLOYMENT
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2. (C) Democrats of the Left (DS) Party Secretary Piero
Fassino, seen as a potential Foreign Minister in a future
Center-Left government, said in a November 6 interview,
"Together with the Iraqis, the Americans, and the British we
will discuss a calendar for withdrawal useful to the Iraqi
transition" if the Center-Left wins the Spring 2006
elections. At a party conference one week later, Fassino
said that troop withdrawal would be gradual and in
consultation with the Iraqi government. Fassino's phrasing
differed slightly from Center-Left leader Romano Prodi's
standard line that if elected, he would "establish an agenda
to withdraw its military from Iraq and engage the country in
reconstruction." Head of the DS Office of International
Affairs Lucciano Vecchi assured Poloff that Fassino had
cleared his comments with Prodi in advance.


3. (U) Other leaders of the "reformist" component of the
Center-Left coalition have since echoed Fassino's comments.
Daisy Party leader Francesco Rutelli immediately confirmed
Fassino's statement that the Center-Left would discuss the
withdrawal with allies and with the government of Iraq.
Radical party leader and former EU Commissioner Emma Bonino
welcomed the newly enunciated position of the Center-Left.
She had previously said, "Today, pulling out of Iraq would
only mean putting the country in the hands of headhunters and
civil war...We were against the war...but once war was
declared we must chose which side to take." Italian Social
Democrat (SDI) leader Enrico Boselli responded similarly,
that, " We must understand what is happening to Iraq's
fragile democracy and not leave it in the hands of
terrorists."

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RADICAL LEFT STILL FAVORS IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL
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4. (SBU) Fassino's comments sparked a strong negative reply
from radical fringes of the Center-Left coalition. Il
Manifesto, the newspaper for the extreme left Communist
Renewal Party (RC),strongly criticized Fassino's comments in
a November 8 editorial, saying it is one thing to say a
Center-Left government would fix a calendar and something
else to say any troop withdrawals would be coordinated with
the Americans, "who are in no hurry to leave." The
Center-Left's three radical members, the Communist Renewal
(RC),Italian Communist Party (PDCI),and the Greens continue
to call for the immediate withdrawal of all Italian troops
from Iraq.


5. (SBU) Communist Renewal leader Fausto Bertinotti has
generally been considered the radical left's spokesperson on
the issue of Italian troop withdrawal. However, his tone has
moderated slightly since his striking defeat in the
Center-Left's October 16 primary (REFS A and B). He
responded to Fassino's comments that Fassino should be
careful not to "cause confusion" and not to "play with
words." Press commentators suggest Bertinotti has toned down
his rhetoric in order to avoid a public dispute with Prodi.
The Green's Pecoraro Scanio, trying to appeal to the pacifist
left, said November 15, "On April 10, he (Prodi) will
announce the withdrawal of our troops from Iraq." He
continued, "It has to be clear to our allies that if there is
no withdrawal, then there is no government by the Union,
because we would pull out." Scanio says a withdrawal must
take no more than two or three months.

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COALITION PLATFORM DEBATE A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME
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6. (C) Daisy Party Foreign Affairs Adviser Luca Bader told
Poloff that the Union is currently negotiating the coalition
platform, which the Union will present on January 21.
According to the press, PDCI Foreign Affairs representative
Jacopo Venier stormed out of a November 24 platform
negotiation on Iraq. Venier was quoted saying, "The text
they have proposed is unacceptable. Sandro Bondi (FI) could
sign it." Venier said he was dissatisfied with the line
proposing, "We will immediately propose to our Parliament
that we withdraw our contingent from Iraq, defining, in
consultation with Iraqi authorities, the modalities, with the
goal of ensuring security." Venier said the PDCI's position
remains that troop withdrawal must be immediate and
unconditional. Venier complained that he was told the
language could not be changed because the DS and Bertinotti's
RC had already agreed on it.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) COMMENT: With active encouragement from Iraqi
President Talibani (REF C),Washington visitors, and the
Embassy, the reformist component of the Center-Left coalition
has publicly moved to a policy on Italian troop deployments
in Iraq that is nearly indistinguishable from the Berlusconi
government's policy: troop withdrawal in consultation with
the Iraqi government and its allies with a lingering
commitment to civil reconstruction. The issue is whether
Prodi and his moderate allies could force that policy on the
radical left in the event of a Center-Left victory. Opinion
polls show the Center-Left's lead has narrowed from eight
percentage points in August to within the range of
statistical error in the most recent polls. Ironically, a
close victory by the Center-Left would strengthen the
extremist parties' relative importance to the coalition and
give Prodi less flexibility. END COMMENT.
SPOGLI