SCENSETTER FOR NSC TOWNSEND'S VISIT TO ROME

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 003787

SIPDIS

NSC FOR TOWNSEND; DEPT FOR S/CT, EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015
TAGS: KOLY PTER PREL IT
SUBJECT: SCENSETTER FOR NSC TOWNSEND'S VISIT TO ROME


Classified By: DCM Anna Borg, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary. Your visit to Rome comes at an opportune
time to press the Italians for increased detail and
transparency about their security plans for the 2006 Winter
Olympic Games in Turin. The Italian Ministry of Interior,
which has been tasked with coordinating security for the
Games, remains extremely sensitive about its ability to
accomplish its goals without U.S. assistance. You should
stress with the Italians that this request for transparency
does not indicate a lack of confidence in their ability, but
that their continued unwillingness to share details is
undermining a previously well-earned reputation in Washington
for cooperation on counterterrorism You should also thank
the Italians for their continued cooperation on combating
terrorist financing and discuss ways to enhance that
cooperation. End summary.

Political Scene
--------------


2. (C) National elections are tentatively scheduled for
April 9. PM Silvio Berlusconi's center-right coalition is
down in the polls, undermined by internal leadership spats
and continued economic stagnation. The center-left also is
plagued by internal disputes which, if it wins, will make
effective governance difficult, but former European
Commission President Romano Prodi recently won a triumphant
electoral victory in the primaries. Pending electoral law
changes may slightly increase the odds for the center-right,
and it is too early to deal Berlusconi out. However, most
political observers predict Prodi's center-left coalition
will win in April.


3. (U) Italy is our strongest ally in continental Europe.
It is the third largest contributor of troops to MFN-I and
funds reconstruction and justice projects in Iraq, leads
ISAF, a PRT and a justice initiative in Afghanistan, just
took over KFOR command in Kosovo, pledged $3 million to the
UN Fund for Democracy, indicated it will fund the new
Foundation for the Future for Middle East democracy
initiatives, co-hosts Democracy Assistance Dialogue
initiatives with Turkey and Yemen, and provided earthquake
and hurricane relief for Pakistan and New Orleans.


4. (C) The center-right has already accused Prodi of
encouraging terrorist attacks on Italy through reckless calls
for rapid withdrawal of Italy's troops from Iraq. However,
Italian public opinion remains overwhelmingly opposed to the
war in Iraq and Berlusconi will be under increasing pressure
to make public statements about plans to withdraw troops.
Despite campaign rhetoric, the center-left has assured us it
will coordinate any troop withdrawals with us and with the
Iraqi government. The center-right also believes it has an
edge in using concern about terrorist attacks and growing
unease about illegal (especially Muslim) immigration as
campaign issues.


5. (C) High public debt, a large deficit, rising social
welfare costs and a stagnant economy are limiting
Berlusconi's ability to maneuver in the face of growing
domestic economic discontent. Pocketbook issues will drive
the campaign and be Berlusconi's biggest challenge, although
Prodi has yet to offer any credible alternative economic
policy. The draft budget now being debated by the Italian
Parliament may include painful cuts in many sectors. This
includes potentially dramatic (to about .85% of GDP) cuts in
the defense budget and a 20% reduction in the overseas
deployment budget that could undermine Italy's ability to
sustain its overseas commitments.

Turin Olympics
--------------


6. (C) Following the London bombings, the GOI approved a
stronger anti-terrorism law and began a crackdown of arrests
and deportations of illegal immigrants and suspected
terrorists. However, Italy continues to be targeted in
fundamentalist websites, and many Italian officials expect
Italy will be attacked in the near future. They are worried
specifically about a potential attack during either the
February Turin Olympics or the spring elections.


7. (S) There have been no direct threats against Americans
at the Games; however, anarchist groups remain active and
there are Islamic extremist cells capable of becoming
operational in Italy. We, along with the British, the Dutch
and the Canadians, are increasingly concerned that we have
insufficient detail about Italian plans to prevent or react
to incidents during the Games, either in Turin or in Italy at
large. The Italian Ministry of Interior, which has been
tasked with coordinating security for the Games, remains
extremely sensitive about its ability to accomplish its goals
without U.S. assistance. To adequately plan for any
shortfalls in Italian operations, however, we need to first
review those plans. You will be meeting with Interior
Minister Pisanu, Chief of Police DeGennaro and MOI Chief of
Public Order (including Olympics) Tagliente. With them, you
should reiterate our request to see their detailed
operational security plan for the Games. We recommend that
you stress that this request for transparency does not
indicate a lack of confidence in their ability, but that
their unwillingness to share details is undermining a
previously well-earned reputation in Washington for
cooperation on counterrorism.


8. (S) Mission Italy has established a USG Olympics Office
in Turin, which will include a 24/7 Joint Operations Center
and a Threat Information Center to coordinate security
liaison for unarmed DSS, FBI and USEUCOM security personnel
with Italian law enforcement officials, coordinate with the
USSS support for VIP visits, and provide Washington with
integrated interagency sitreps during the Games. The Turin
Office will also coordinate logistical support for
approximately 260 USG TDY personnel working both the Olympic
Games and the Para-Olympic Games, provide American citizens
services and manage press/public diplomacy for the USG
presence at the Games. Embassy Rome has established the
Galileo Center, an interagency intelligence unit, to collect
threat information and disseminate it in a format releasable
to Italian law enforcement authorities. With the support of
DOS S/CT and FSI, Mission Italy will conduct two crisis
management exercises in December, one in Turin focused on
Olympic scenarios, and one in Rome focused on the possibility
of attacks during Games elsewhere in Italy.

Terrorist Finance/Asset Freeze for WMD Proliferators
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Italy is second only to the U.S. in the number of
names it has contributed to the UNSC 1267 Committee for asset
freeze. (Comment: Italy has submitted over a third of all
the names on the 1267 Committee list of individuals.) We can
significantly strengthen our ability to work effectively with
Italy on terrorism finance and money laundering through
increased policy-level dialogue. Specific issues of interest
would include: (1) Italy's plan to submit a bill to
Parliament which would specifically authorize freezing
non-financial TF assets; (2) obtaining Italian support to
help build an international mechanism to block property of
WMD proliferators and their supporters; and (3) continue to
refine our cooperation on sharing and evaluating our
prospective TT names to the UNSC for asset freeze.

SPOGLI