ITALIANS SHARE USG CONCERNS ON BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 003547

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM EAID PGOV BO IT EUN
SUBJECT: ITALIANS SHARE USG CONCERNS ON BELARUS

REF: STATE 188900

Classified By: Classified by David D. Pearce, Political Minister-Counse
lor, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. On October 24 Poloff met with Antonino
Cascio, Deputy Director of the Office of Eastern European
Affairs of the Italian MFA to deliver reftel points. Cascio
stated that Italy and the EU share the USG opinion that
pressure must be stepped up on the Lukashenko regime in
advance of the 2006 elections. He stated that an action plan
was being developed in Brussels to deal with the elections
and expected that the EU would be prepared to condemn the
current and past elections as being undemocratic and
predetermined. Despite this, the GOI expects very little
change in the status quo in Belarus after 2006. End summary.


2. (C) On October 24, Poloff delivered reftel points on
Belarus to Cascio. Cascio noted that Italy and the EU were
in agreement with the US that pressure must be maintained and
stepped up on the Lukashenko regime. Italy was coordinating
its activities with the EU in order to maintain a united
front against Lukashenko, including support for NGO
activities and maintaining the EU visa ban on key regime
officials. Cascio added that the EU would be focused on
sending observers to Belarus to monitor the 2006 elections.


3. (C) On a bilateral basis, the GOI has worked to find
members of the GOB with which to begin a dialogue. Cascio
stated that although the Italian Embassy in Minsk has not
found any cooperative partners in the regime, there do appear
to be some that are more open to discussion than others. The
GOI had hoped to use its relationship to encourage Russia to
pressure Lukashenko as well. The Russians, however, have not
responded with any initiatives to help introduce democratic
reforms in Belarus. The GOI believes that the Russians'
willingness to discuss the issue is, at the very least, a
step in the right direction.


4. (C) Comment. From the GOI perspective, Italy has done
everything possible, both within the EU and bilaterally to
express condemnation of Lukashenko's undemocratic behavior to
the point of freezing the bilateral relationship. Despite
the widespread international condemnation of his behavior,
Lukashenko has actually stepped up his curtailment of civil
and human rights in the recent past. As a result, the GOI is
pessimistic of the effect any new measures will have on
Lukashenko's grip on power.
SPOGLI