ITALIANS WONDERING IF THEY'RE NEXT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 003512

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PINS ASEC IT ANTITERRORISM FORCE PROTECTION
SUBJECT: ITALIANS WONDERING IF THEY'RE NEXT

REF: ROME 3137

Classified by Political Minister-Counselor David D. Pearce,
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary. Both center-right and center-left
politicians remain focused on the possibility of a major
terror attack in Italy in coming months. An adviser on
Middle East Affairs in the prime minister's office told us he
sees a high possibility of an Al-Qaida attack somewhere in
Italy during the Olympics in February or just before national
elections here next spring. Italian security forces were
doing everything possible to prevent such a contingency, but
it was difficult to defend against. In the same vein, a
center-left parliamentarian said that while there was no
specific information about a possible attack during the
Olympics or elections, it was the government's analysis that
this could be a particularly "delicate moment". The prime
minister's adviser felt the domestic political fallout of an
attack was unpredictable; Italy was not the UK, nor was it
Spain. He said center-left and center-right politicians
alike tended to be nonpartisan in their support of
counter-terrorism action. Whether the Italian presence in
Iraq came in for increased criticism, in his view, would
depend on the opposition leadership. Other analysts point
out that such an attack -- or even heightened concern and
chatter about the prospect -- could strengthen the
center-right's prospects at the polls. End Summary.


2. (S) An adviser on Middle East Affairs in the prime
minister's office October 18 told Pol M/C he thought there
was a high possibility of an Al-Qaida attack somewhere in
Italy during the Olympics or just before national elections
here next spring. Stressing that he spoke privately, the
adviser noted that the pattern with al-Qaida until now has
been that it follows through on its threats, and Italy has
been specifically cited (reftel). He noted that the Olympics
in February and national elections in the spring (note: April
9 is the expected date for legislative elections. end note)
were obvious targets of opportunity. Italian security forces
were doing everything possible to prevent such a contingency,
but it was difficult to defend against. "I take the train
and metro every day," he said. "It would be very easy for
someone to get a bag of explosives on board."


3. (S) What was less clear, he said, was what the impact
would be of any attack. Italy was not the UK, where the
citzenry quickly rallied behind the government after the
London underground bombings. Nor was it Spain, where the
government had blundered and angered the public by initial
efforts to blame the al-Qaida terrorist action on Basque
separatists. It was not inconceivable that some politicians
on the left would point the finger at the Italian presence in
Iraq as making Italy a target. (Note: The center-right has
also criticized talk of troop withdrawal by center-left
politicians as inviting attacks. End note.) But politicians
of both the center-left and center-right tended to be
nonpartisan when it came to support for counter-terrorism
action. Moreover, he noted, many voters would understand
full well that the aim of an attack would be to undermine the
Berlusconi government and accelerate Italian troop withdrawal
from Iraq. That could actually trigger a backlash of support
for the center-right, as well as higher voter turnout, which
generally favors the center-right.


4. (U) Meanwhile, Italian newspapers reported Interior
Minister Giuseppe Pisanu's meeting October 18 with the
bicameral parliamentary oversight committee for the security
services. Pisanu told the legislators there was no specific
evidence, but the security forces will be especially alert
during the Winter Olympics in Turin and the elections. The
head of the oversight committee, center-left parliamentary
Enzo Bianco, said, "there are analyses, not precise
information. But international terrorism continues to choose
moments of particular exposure for any country, and it's
clear that (for Italy) this could be the most delicate
moment."


5. (S) The prime minister's adviser said it was difficult
to predict the domestic political fallout of any attack;
Italy was not the UK, nor was it Spain. Center-left and
center-right politicians alike tended to be nonpartisan in
their support of counter-terrorism action. The extent to
which the Italian presence in Iraq became a greater issue
would depend on the opposition leadership.


6. (S) Comment: To date, we have no specific threat
information about potential attacks on Americans at the
Olympics, and the interagency Galileo intelligence unit being
established at Embassy Rome for the games will compile
threat, and disseminate law enforcement, information
releaseable to the Italian authorities to assist them in
deterring attacks in Italy. All sides of the political
spectrum here seem to recognize that Italy may be under
heightened threat in coming months. Some, like the prime
minister's adviser, point out that an attack could lead to
stepped-up criticism of the Italian role in Iraq. Others
point out that such an attack could actually backfire and
strengthen the center-right's prospects at the polls. Others
point out that an actual attack, or even heightened concern
about security and terrorism, could generate a higher voter
turnout. This, in turn, would help the center-right, whose
voters tend to be less ideologically motivated than those on
the left. End comment.



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