ITALY: PRODI WINS CLEAR VICTORY IN CENTER-LEFT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 003467

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALY: PRODI WINS CLEAR VICTORY IN CENTER-LEFT
PRIMARIES

REF: A. ROME 3376


B. ROME 3442

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David Pearce
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Former EU Commissioner Romano Prodi confirmed
his role as Center-Left party leader in a decisive victory in
Italy's first ever coalition primaries on October 16. A
surprisingly high 4.4 million voters gave Prodi 74.6 percent
of the vote, versus 14.6 percent for his nearest rival,
far-left Communist Renewal (RC) General Secretary Fausto
Bertinotti. The unexpectedly wide margin of victory confirms
Prodi as coalition leader and gives him a stronger hand
against Bertinotti on the far left. Even so, the already
fractioned Center-Left coalition is showing signs of further
strain in the face of electoral reform legislation that is
expected to weaken coalitions and strengthen party leaders,
not least Prime Minister Berlusconi. END SUMMARY

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PRODI WINS DECISIVE VICTORY, HIGH TURNOUT
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2. (SBU) Former EU Commission President Romano Prodi won the
Center-Left election primaries held October 16 by a
surprisingly decisive margin (REF A). Prodi won 74.4 percent
of the votes, and far-left Communist Renewal (RC) candidate
Fausto Bertinotti received 14.6 percent. Union of Democrats
for Europe (UDEUR) Clemente Mastella took 4.5 percent and
former anti-corruption prosecutor and head of the Italy of
Values Party Antonio Di Pietro won 3.3 percent. In another
surprise, nearly 4.4 million voters turned out for Italy's
first-ever nationwide primaries. Election organizers had
officially predicted one million participants, and party
leaders privately had expressed confidence that turnout would
reach two million.


3. (C) Prior to election day, analysts had said that Prodi
needed to win at least 60 percent of the vote and Bertinotti
less than 20 percent for Prodi to assume the undisputed
leadership of the Center-Left "Union" coalition. Press
commentators and Center-Left party leaders have confirmed
publicly that Prodi's decisive victory and the large turnout
for the Center-Left mean Prodi is the coalition leader
heading into spring 2006 national elections. Center-Right
politicians, including PM Silvio Berlusconi, have tried to
minimize the importance of the primary vote. Marco Casella,
head of a Forza Italia-affiliated think tank, confirmed to
Poloff that the primaries were a great success for the
Center-Left generally, and Prodi specifically. He commented
further that Berlusconi has been unwise to "ridicule" a
process that involved nearly four million Italian voters,
especially since some members of Berlusconi's coalition also
had called for primaries by the Center-Right to determine
coalition leadership.

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VICTORY DOES NOT TRANSLATE INTO CLEAR PLATFORM
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4. (C) Center-Left politicians and representatives from
independent think tanks told Poloff prior to the primary
elections that Prodi, even as the confirmed leader of the
Center-Right, would still have difficulty negotiating a
coalition platform. Daisy party Head of International
Affairs Luca Bader told Poloff that the winner in the
primaries would not assume absolute coalition leadership in
the way that the winner of a U.S. party primary would.
Casella told Poloff that the process of negotiating a
coalition platform will be complicated further as a result of
electoral reform legislation that weakens the ties that bind
coalitions together and strengthens party leaders (REF B).
(COMMENT: The new law will effectively put less of a premium
on pre-electoral coalition bargaining and more weight on
post-election discussions, removing some of the leverage
previously enjoyed by smaller coalition parties. END
COMMENT.)

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COALITION SPLITS ALREADY EMERGING
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5. (U) The Center-Left "Union" previewed potential internal
problems the same day it achieved an important victory.
Electoral reform legislation that will almost certainly be
law by next year's elections essentially obligates Prodi to
either become a member of a particular political party or to
found his own party. On the evening of his victory, Prodi
declared that the tradition of the Olive Party (his previous
election vehicle) is alive and well, and called for the

merger of the Center-Left's two largest parties, the
Democrats of the Left (DS) and the Daisy Party, to form a new
Olive Party. The press reports that DS President Massimo
D'Alemo responded somewhat positively, but that Daisy General
Secretary Francesco Rutelli made it clear that the Daisy

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party would remain independent. At the same time, Italian
Social Democrat (SDI) leader Enrico Boselli said his party
would go ahead with a proposed alliance with the non-Union
affiliated Radical Party. Mastella announced he would break
ranks with the Union position on the electoral reform law and
vote in favor of it when it arrives in the Senate. He also
said the UDEUR might withdraw from the Union after a special
party session in January.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) COMMENT: Prodi's strong victory and the surprisingly
large primary turnout confirm Prodi's position as coalition
leader. However, the divisions in the Center-Left and the
soon-to-be passed electoral reform law have cast doubt over
the importance of pre-electoral coalitions. Casella told
Poloff the real victor is the DS, since it is the party that
produced most of the Center-Left's four million primary
voters. With the Daisy and other center-oriented parties
seeing the possibility of a new "center-center" coalition
emerging over the horizon, Prodi may find it increasingly
difficult to hold his coalition. Bottom line: Prodi is
stronger vis-a-vis the far left, but this is tempered by more
disarray in the Center-Left coalition; Berlusconi and other
big party leaders strengthened by the new electoral law; and
a tightening race for national elections next spring. END
COMMENT.
BORG


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2005ROME03467 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL