ITALY: SENATE PRESIDENT PERA WORRIED ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 003276

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY: SENATE PRESIDENT PERA WORRIED ABOUT
BERLUSCONI'S ELECTION PROSPECTS AND THE CENTER-LEFT'S
FOREIGN POLICY

REF: A. ROME 3081

B. STATE 180461

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Spogli for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Ambassador met September 28 with Senate
President Marcello Pera at Pera's request. Pera was
pessimistic about PM Silvio Berlusconi's ability to win next
year's general elections, but believes there "is still time"
to pull off a victory. He criticized Berlusconi's failure to
develop concrete plans, described coalition problems stemming
from the debate over center-right leadership, and said the
Catholic Church would play an important role in next year's
elections. Pera said a center-left victory would be
disastrous for U.S. foreign policy interests; a view we
believe is overstated. Pera hopes to visit the U.S. again in
January. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The Ambassador met September 28 with Senate President
Marcello Pera, at Pera's request. Pera expressed
appreciation for the high-level reception he received during
his recent trip to Washington and said that it is a sign of
the closeness of the current U.S.-Italian bilateral
relationship. Pera, a close ally of PM Silvio Berlusconi,
told the Ambassador he is pessimistic regarding next year's
general election but said there "is still time" for the
governing center-right coalition to achieve a victory.
However, he said he is concerned Berlusconi believes too much
in "miracles" and in his own charisma and that Berlusconi
does not understand the need to deliver concrete programs.
Pera described Berlusconi's succession problem: both National
Alliance (AN) leader Gianfranco Fini and Union of Christian
Democrats of the Center (UDC) leader Pier Ferdinando Casini
aspire to replace Berlusconi and are jockeying for position
hurting coalition unity. According to Pera, Berlusconi needs
to find a way to tell Fini he is next in line while
reassuring Casini that his time will come.


3. (C) Pera stated "values" will play an important role in
the upcoming elections and said the Catholic Church will
figure significantly into the political debate. He noted, as
an example, that the Church has already inserted itself
actively into the recent debate over civil unions for
homosexuals. Pera, who co-wrote a book with Pope Benedict XVI
when he was still Cardinal Ratzinger, told the Ambassador he
has already met twice with the new Pope.


4. (C) In Pera's view, a future center-left government led by
Romano Prodi would be beholden to far left politician Fausto
Bertinotti--leading to disastrous foreign policy decisions.
He said he is "worried" Prodi would go too far to accommodate
Bertinotti in order to keep his government from falling.


5. (SBU) Finally, Pera said he would like to visit the U.S.
again in January 2006 and suggested he would like to travel
to the west coast. The Ambassador offered to assist in
arranging meetings at the Hoover Institute and with
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

6, (C) COMMENT: Pera, a relative neophyte in politics despite
his high position in government, is often pessimistic and
somewhat melodramatic. He is growing increasingly concerned
that Berlusconi will fail to rally Italians in next year's
elections and paints a more starkly negative picture of a
potential center-left government's foreign policy than we
believe is warranted. In this meeting, Pera seemed to be
hoping in vain the Ambassador would ask what the U.S. could
do to prevent a center-left victory. END COMMENT.
SPOGLI


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2005ROME03276 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL