ITALY MAINTAINS STRONG SUPPORT FOR TURKEY'S EU

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 002720

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY MAINTAINS STRONG SUPPORT FOR TURKEY'S EU
ACCESSION TALKS

REF: A. ROME 01979


B. ROME 02372

C. ROME 02422

D. ROME 02178

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Candace Putnam, for
reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (SBU) Summary. Prime Minister Berlusconi's government
continues to steadfastly support Turkey in the run-up to the
expected start of EU negotiations October 3, although Italian
officials acknowledge that the talks will be lengthy and
difficult. Italian officials concede that EU membership for
Turkey has become a tougher sell as the EU works to overcome
internal difficulties, but they maintain that it is important
to solidify democracy there and protect Europe's flank from
the spread of Islamic extremism. Italy's center-left
opposition, however, is unlikely to champion Turkey's cause
if elected in next year's election. End Summary.


2. (C) Over the past several months, Italian officials have
told Poloffs and visiting USG officials that the double "no"
from France and the Netherlands on the EU constitution has
made it harder to stir up enthusiasm for EU expansion. They
acknowledge that the EU is under pressure to bounce back from
the constitutional setback and redefine the Union's future,
but they maintain that relaunching the process of EU
integration and expansion could shake the Union out of its
doldrums. Senior MFA officials suggested months ago that
France would use its "no" vote to slow or block negotiations
with Ankara but that Italy would work to prevent a few big
states from "calling the shots" on the future of the Union
(ref A).


3. (C) MFA Secretary General Vatani told visiting A/S Fried
in June that Italy will firmly support Turkey's bid in the
run-up to the start of EU negotiations in October (ref A).
Italian officials argue that an EU "no" to Turkey could have
negative implications on accession talks for Bulgaria and
Romania, which the Italians want to avoid. (Note: EU
membership for the Balkans is a key Italian foreign policy
goal. End note.) In July 2005, MFA EU Office Director Luigi
Mattiolo told Laborcouns that in-depth EU discussions on the
way forward with Turkey are not likely until the September
Gymnich or perhaps delayed until November (after the German
elections) when the EU could hold an "extraordinary" European
Council meeting (ref B).


4. (SBU) FM Fini's visit to Ankara in July was designed to
publicly reiterate Italy's support for Turkey ahead of the
expected start of formal negotiations. During his visit,
Fini noted that Turkey remains a strategic partner for the EU
and that membership for Turkey serves the Union's interests.
Fini said that Turkey, as a member of NATO, already is
integrated with Europe and the United States militarily and
politically. (During an earlier meeting in Rome with German
FM Fischer, Fini said that embracing Turkey also helps fight
terrorism and the spread of Islamic extremism.) At the same
time, he signaled that EU negotiations will likely be long an
complex--lasting at least 10 years, he speculated--and will
include "timely verifications" and "moments for pause" to
ensure that Ankara complies with EU values before formal
integration. Berlusconi in June agreed that negotiations
could be lengthy, in part, he says, because it will take time
to convince French and Germany publics on the benefits of
having a democratic Muslim country in the EU.


5. (SBU) In contrast to the government's enthusiasm,
center-left leader (and former EC President) Romano Prodi has
suggested that the EU should delay enlargement discussions to
take stock of the Union's future (ref D). In a June
interview with a regional newspaper, Prodi implied that
intra-EU problems fueling grumblings about the Euro and the
rejection of the draft EU constitution, are linked to worries
over further expansion. Prodi explicitly stated that the
"real" concern was not the Euro, but Turkey. He suggested
the EU "rethink" Turkey's future membership because, in his
view, the "conditions" for Turkey's accession in the near and
medium terms no longer exist. (Comment: Prodi has been
consistently lukewarm about Turkey's potential EU membership
but shares the government's goal of pursuing EU membership
for Balkan countries. End comment.)


6. (SBU) Comment: Berlusconi's government remains
consistently "on message" regarding Turkish EU accession and
may already be working behind-the-scenes to build support for
launching accession negotiations in October. However, if
Prodi's coalition wins next year's parliamentary election,
Ankara is unlikely to find an enthusiastic champion in Rome.

SPOGLI


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2005ROME02720 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL