IRAQ/ITALIAN TROOP DEPLOYMENT: PARLIAMENT EXTENDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 002569

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2015
TAGS: MARR PREL PGOV MOPS EAID MCAP IZ IT IRAQI FREEDOM
SUBJECT: IRAQ/ITALIAN TROOP DEPLOYMENT: PARLIAMENT EXTENDS
FUNDING THROUGH DECEMBER

REF: A. ROME 902


B. ROME 1635

Classified By: Acting Pol M/C Jonathan Cohen for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary. On July 27, the Italian Parliament extended
funding for Italy's mission in Iraq to December 31, 2005, by
a wide majority. With the exception of the Union of
Democrats for Europe (UDEUR),the opposition voted against.
Wide differences of opinion have emerged within the
opposition, ranging from Communist/Green support for
immediate Italian withdrawal from Iraq to mainstream
parties, (Democrats of the Left, Daisy) support for gradual
withdrawal and recognition of a UN mandate through 2005.
Center-left leader Prodi said after the vote that if the
center-left wins the elections in 2006, he will withdraw
Italy's troops. His remarks drew immediate criticism from PM
Berlusconi, DPM/FM Fini, Government MPs, and Chief of Defense
Staff Di Paola. End summary.


2. (U) On July 27, the Italian Senate approved the
Government decree extending funds for Italy's humanitarian
mission (troop deployment) in Iraq for another six months to
December 31, 2005. There were 150 ayes, 92 nays, and two
abstentions. The Chamber of Deputies approved the same
decree on July 21, with 283 ayes, 207 nays, and three
abstentions. The decree is now law. The full center-right
governing coalition voted in favor in both Houses of
Parliament, while most of the left opposed the decree, with
the exception of Clemente Mastella's Union of Democrats for
Europe (UDEUR). (Note: UDEUR had already broken ranks and
voted with the majority parties on the previous extension of
funds to June 30, 2005. End note.)


3. (U) Debate over the decree revealed increasing
differences of opinion within the center-left opposition.
Representing the mainstream sectors of the left, Piero
Fassino, leader of the largest opposition party, the
Democrats of the Left (DS),and Francesco Rutelli, leader of
the smaller Daisy Party, called for a gradual exit strategy
within a multilateral context and a clear definition of
Italy's commitments needed to "concur with the completion of
the process of transition" in Iraq. Communist Renewal (RC),
the Greens, and the Italian Communists (PdCI),who have
always opposed the Italian deployment, continued to call for
the immediate withdrawal of Italian troops.


4. (U) In an effort to paper over these differences,
center-left leader and former EC President Romano Prodi said
July 29 that if the center-left won next year's elections,
Italy's 3,300 troops would be "withdrawn as an occupying
contingent because our task will be to help in the
reconstruction of the country." His remarks drew immediate
criticism from PM Silvio Berlusconi, DPM/FM Gianfranco Fini
and other government MPs, who accused Prodi of
misrepresenting the nature of the Italian mission and
encouraging terrorist attacks on Italy and on Italian troops
in Iraq. Forza Italia's spokesman said that Prodi's
statement was an "invitation for terrorists to go to town."
Speaking in Baghdad July 31, Chief of Defense Staff Admiral
Giampaolo Di Paola was cited in the press as trying to
reassure the troops that they had, and will continue to have,
the "Government's strong support," whatever the outcome of
the elections.


5. (C) Comment. The next Government decree on Iraq funding,
expected to occur in January 2006 -- a few months before
national elections -- is likely to be more politically
charged. Italy's military presence in Iraq remains deeply
unpopular, and Berlusconi will need to demonstrate that the
end is in sight and that a gradual drawdown is possible to
continue to secure the support of his center-right coalition
members. With the elections in mind, Berlusconi has already
announced that Italy will withdraw approximately 300 troops
this fall (reftels). We do not expect Berlusconi to make any
other troop reductions before the end of the year.

6. (C) Comment continued. Prodi is the most likely
candidate to lead a center-left government should the
center-left win next spring's elections. Although he has
refrained from announcing a timetable for withdrawal, he
would be under pressure to appease the more extreme sectors
of his coalition (RC, PdCI, and the Greens) by withdrawing
quickly. Should Italy suffer a terrorist attack before the
elections, Prodi could suffer a reverse Zapatero effect --
i.e., electoral wrath rather than support.

KILNER


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2005ROME02569 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL