ITALY: BERLUSCONI ANNOUNCES MAY 2006 ELECTIONS,

UNCLAS ROME 001442

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALY: BERLUSCONI ANNOUNCES MAY 2006 ELECTIONS,
ELECTION TIMETABLES AND PARAMETERS

REF: ROME 1409

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SUMMARY
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1. PM Berlusconi told journalists April 26 that Italy's
next national elections would be held in May 2006.
Berlusconi said he had already discussed the date with
President Ciampi. In fact, if the current Parliament
completes its full term, Italy in 2006 will face an
unprecedented situation, with the terms of the President,
Parliament, and Government all expiring within weeks. We
foresee that President Ciampi will be extended in office,
with his successor chosen by the new Parliament after
elections. Parliament will be dissolved, in March to permit
May elections. After the elections, the Government will
resign, regardless of which side wins, to be replaced by
ministers of the winning coalition. END SUMMARY.

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ELECTORAL LAW
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2. In national elections, about 50 million Italian electors
are eligible to vote for a new Parliament. That Parliament
selects a new President of the Republic, upon expiration of
the sitting president's seven-year term. Timetables are
established for national and presidential elections, but
there are no precedents for the current situation, when the
President of the Republic, Parliament, and by extension the
Government, all reach the end of their terms around the same
time.


3. By tradition, strengthened by provisions of the 1994
electoral reform law, the sitting government's mandate ends
and a new government is formed when the new Parliament takes
office. Under the 1994 electoral law, coalitions indicate
their candidate for prime minister on the ballot, making the
vote a clearer indication of voter preference for the post.
In fact, though, an individual votes for a coalition and for
the candidate representing his/her parliamentary district.
Italians do not vote directly for the prime minister.
Before the 1994 reform, the prime minister was not
specified, and the President of the Republic could nominate
a prime minister essentially of his choosing, after
consulting with the Presidents of the Chamber and Senate and
other political leaders. The role of the voters was close
to nonexistent.

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CIAMPI'S TERM AND PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION
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4. President Ciampi's mandate expires May 18, 2006. Unless
he resigns well ahead of that date, the new president will
be elected by Italy's next parliament within 35 days of
national elections. President Ciampi has already indicated
he will not resign before the end of his mandate, so we can
predict he will be extended in office.


5. Thirty days before the mandate of the President of the
Republic expires, the President of the Chamber of Deputies
must summon all parliamentarians (both Chamber and Senate)
and 58 regional delegates in joint session to vote for
Italy's next president. (Nineteen of Italy's 20 regional
councils, roughly equivalent to our state legislatures,
select three members each to represent them. The small
region of Valle D'Aosta gets a single representative.) This
does not apply, however, if Parliament is already dismissed
or if there are less than three months before its full term
ends. In those cases, the President of the Republic is
elected by the new Parliament within 15 days of its first
meeting. (Parliament must meet within 20 days from the date
of national elections.) In the meantime, powers of the
departing president are extended.

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PARLIAMENT'S TERM
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6. The current parliamentary term expires May 30, 2006.
The President of the Republic formally declares Parliament
expired (as opposed to being dissolved early) and calls for
new elections. Elections must be held not less than forty-
five days (the legally mandated minimum electoral campaign
period) and not more than seventy days (as dictated by
Italy's Constitution) from the date the parliamentary term
expires.


7. This means Italy's next national parliamentary elections
would be held between July 14 and August 8, 2006. However,
elections in Italy are usually held not later than June,
before school summer closure, to maximize voter turnout.
This suggests an early dismissal of Parliament. The


President of the Republic cannot dismiss Parliament during
the last six months of his mandate unless it also coincides
with the last six months of the legislative term, as in this
case. To fulfill Berlusconi's indicated mid-May election
plan, the current Parliament would have to be dissolved in
mid-to-late March 2006.

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AND THE GOVERNMENT'S TERM
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8. Parliament is elected to a five-year term, but the
Government is technically an entity without a set term. To
become effective, a newly appointed government must receive
a vote of confidence from both chambers of Parliament. Once
confirmed, the government remains in office until Parliament
revokes its confidence or the government resigns. However,
governments have traditionally resigned after a new
President of the Republic is elected and after national
elections. Thus, the current Berlusconi III Government can
be expected to resign after national and presidential
elections -- even if the center-right were to win with
Berlusconi as its standard bearer.

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COMMENT
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9. Italy's next Parliament will have to select a new
President of the Republic and form a new government before
summer recess in August. If elections occur in May, June
and July 2006 look to be busy months for Italian
politicians.
SEMBLER


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2005ROME01442 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED