Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ROME1409
2005-04-26 15:01:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Rome
Cable title:  

ITALY: BERLUSCONI III SWORN IN; LIKELY TO BE

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR IT ITALIAN POLITICS 
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UNCLAS ROME 001409 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY: BERLUSCONI III SWORN IN; LIKELY TO BE
CONFIRMED THIS WEEK

REF: A) ROME 1291, B) 04 ROME 2630

UNCLAS ROME 001409

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY: BERLUSCONI III SWORN IN; LIKELY TO BE
CONFIRMED THIS WEEK

REF: A) ROME 1291, B) 04 ROME 2630


1. (U) SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- NOT FOR INTERNET
DISTRIBUTION.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------

2. (SBU) A new Berlusconi Cabinet was sworn in by
President of the Republic Ciampi on April 23. If confirmed
as expected by both chambers of Parliament, this will be
Berlusconi's third government, counting his seven-month
stint in 1994 and the just-expired term that made him
Italy's longest-serving post-War Prime Minister. The new
Cabinet shows few changes. It includes the four major
coalition partners of Berlusconi II -- the PM's own Forza
Italia (FI),National Alliance (AN),Union of Christian
Democrats of the Center (UDC) and the Northern League
(Lega). The Cabinet also draws in two micro-parties, the
New Italian Socialists (New PSI) and the Italian Republicans
(PRI),which were associated with this coalition throughout
most of the previous government, but in this line-up have
one ministry each. If pressure on Berlusconi to resign by
AN and UDC was intended to reduce the Northern League's
influence, there are few signs from Cabinet appointments
that this played out. We do not foresee any dramatic
changes in the policies of most concern to the USG when
Berlusconi presents his government program to Parliament on
April 26. Septel will report on what the Government change
means for Berlusconi's economic policies. END SUMMARY.

--------------
THE NEW GOVERNMENT LINE-UP
--------------

3. (U) The government sworn in on April 23 looks much like
the one it replaces:

Silvio Berlusconi (FI),Prime Minister
Gianfranco Fini (AN),Deputy Prime Minister (and Foreign
Minister)
Giulio Tremonti (FI),Deputy Prime Minister (replaced Marco
Follini, UDC)

MINISTERS WITH PORTFOLIO:

Gianfranco Fini (AN),Foreign Affairs
Giuseppe Pisanu (FI),Interior
Roberto Castelli (Lega),Justice
Antonio Martino (FI),Defense
Domenico Siniscalco (Independent),Economics and Finance
Claudio Scajola (FI),Productive Activities (replaced
Antonio Marzano, FI)
Letizia Moratti (Independent),Education, University and
Scientific Research
Roberto Maroni (Lega),Labor and Welfare
Giovanni Alemanno (AN),Agricultural Affairs and Forests
Altero Matteoli (AN),Environment

Pietro Lunardi (Independent),Infrastructure and Transport
Francesco Storace (AN),Health (replaced Gerolamo Sirchia,
Independent)
Rocco Buttiglione (UDC),Cultural Assets and Activities
(replaced Giuliano Urbani, FI)
Mario Landolfi (AN),Communications (replaced Maurizio
Gasparri, AN)

MINISTERS WITHOUT PORTFOLIO:

(Note: Ministers without Portfolio have no independent
budget and little staff. They are created on an ad hoc
basis by the sitting Council of Ministers.)

Roberto Calderoli (Lega),Institutional Reform and
Devolution
Giorgio La Malfa (PRI),European Union Policy (replaced
Buttiglione, UDC, who was "promoted" to the Culture
Ministry)
Stefano Caldoro (New PSI),Implementation of Government
Programs (replaced Claudio Scajola, FI, who was "promoted"
to Productive Activities)
Mario Baccini (UDC),Public Administration
Enrico La Loggia (FI),Regional Affairs
Carlo Giovanardi (UDC),Relations with Parliament
Lucio Stanca (Independent),Innovation and Technology
Stefania Prestigiacomo (FI),Equal Opportunities
Mirko Tremaglia (AN),Italians Abroad
Gianfranco Micciche' (FI),Development and Territorial Unity


(new position)

--------------
THE TALLY
--------------

4. (SBU) AN, Berlusconi's largest partner in terms of
votes (after FI, based on the 2001 national election vote
count),retained the double hats of deputy prime minister
and foreign minister for party leader Gianfranco Fini. AN
also secured the Health Ministry for party heavyweight
Francesco Storace, who lost his re-election bid for Lazio
regional president in the April 3-4 regional elections. UDC
(slightly ahead of Lega in terms of electoral weight within
the coalition) kept its three previous ministers, with
former Minister without Portfolio for European Union
Policies Rocco Buttiglione "promoted" to a full Ministry
(Culture). UDC leader Marco Follini withdrew from his
government role of Deputy Prime Minister, as he promised he
would. Seemingly at odds with AN and UDC demands, the
Northern League kept all three of its ministries, including
the all-important (to League voters) Minister for Reform. A
caustic observer might note that AN/UDC failed to break the
coalition's "northern axis." New allies, PRI and New PSI,
secured one ministry each.


5. (SBU) Most promotions or new appointments came at the
expense of independent ministers or were swaps within a
party. One new minister without portfolio was created, that
for Development and Territorial Integrity -- read "the
South." Berlusconi, however, succeeded in bringing back two
key advisers especially important to him in electoral
campaigns -- Claudio Scajola and Giulio Tremonti.
Tremonti's appointment as Deputy Prime Minister alongside
Fini counts also as a plus for the League, but as a possible
affront to AN (see below). After assigning Productive
Activities to key FI confidante Claudio Scajola, we expect
Berlusconi to reward his quietly exiting loyal follower
Antonio Marzano with some other appointment, likely within
the party. The Scajola appointment, too, must have been the
subject of intense bargaining; most sources suggested AN
wanted this ministry for its own.

--------------
NEW (RE-)ENTRIES
--------------

6. (SBU) Tremonti, one of Berlusconi's most trusted allies
and a senior leader of FI, is an economic and tax expert.
Berlusconi may have had to overcome Fini's objections to
name Tremonti deputy prime minister. Tremonti was forced to
resign as Minister of Economics and Finance in July 2004
after a showdown with Fini, who accused Tremonti of
monopolizing economic policy decision-making and hiding the
true state of Italy's public accounts (Ref B). Tremonti is
seen as a firm supporter of the Lega's devolution/government
reform, which could again create friction with AN and UDC.


7. (SBU) Storace, the new health minister, is co-leader
with Agriculture Minister Alemanno of AN's "Social Right"
(Destra Sociale) faction. Social Right is AN's strongly
populist wing, tending to support "big" government
assistance to the voters. It does not fully support Fini's
leadership. The appointment, however, cements Storace to
the government, leaving him less room to maneuver against
Fini from outside. Although he entered politics at age 14,
this is Storace's first cabinet post. The new Minister said
he would work to bring down the cost of medicine and to
complete talks on the renewal of expired national contracts
for health sector workers, including doctors.


8. (SBU) The new post of Minister without Portfolio for
Development and Territorial Unity is well suited for
Gianfranco Micciche', FI Coordinator for Sicily. In his
most recent position of deputy finance minister, he was
already responsible for southern Italy's economic
development -- which begs the question why AN and UDC didn't
demand a new face. Micciche' is a strong promoter of
policies for the underdeveloped south, however, and giving
the topic ministerial attention is designed to reassure the
two coalition partners of the premier's determination to do
more for the region. Micciche' told reporters that "this
sends out an essential sign (to the south)... I represent a
denial of those who spoke of a FI-Lega axis."


9. (SBU) Mario Landolfi, former AN spokesman who replaces
Maurizio Gasparri as Minister for Communications, is a
relative light weight in the Cabinet, having been a working


level contact for us thus far. He is close to Fini, and he
is also from Campania, in southern Italy.


10. (SBU) Giorgio La Malfa, who replaced Buttiglione as EU
Policies Minister, leads the small but relatively
influential Italian Republican Party. Born in Milan, La
Malfa is close to Berlusconi and was elected to the Chamber
of Deputies in 2001 on the FI ticket.


11. (SBU) Stefano Caldoro, born in 1960, is almost
certainly the youngest minister. Formerly deputy minister
for education, Caldoro is also a southerner. He represents
the miniscule New PSI.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------

12. (SBU) We expect the new Government to win relatively
easy confirmation in confidence votes in the Chamber (likely
late on April 27) and the Senate (expected April 28). The
policies of the new Berlusconi Government will be much like
those of its predecessor, particularly on matters of most
interest to Washington -- Iraq, Afghanistan, the war on
terror. In his presentation before Parliament on April 27,
Berlusconi will have to show not only the voters, but
perhaps more importantly coalition partners AN and UDC, that
the Government recognizes their dissatisfaction with the
state of the economy; this is likely to be the focus of the
Prime Minister's speech. (Septel will report on what the
new Cabinet means for Berlusconi's economic program.)


13. (SBU) While the center-right coalition parties have
reconciled their differences to some degree, this alliance
will be under strain from now until the next national
elections. We still expect elections to be in early 2006,
given that the time for dissolving Parliament to hold
elections in June is almost past. (Italian law requires a
45-day campaign period prior to an election.) After June
comes the sacred summer vacation season, and after that come
fall budget negotiations, neither of which are auspicious
for simultaneous national elections.
SEMBLER


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2005ROME01409 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED