SOMALIA - ITALY REQUESTS USG VIEWS ON SITUATION;

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 001012

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2015
TAGS: PREL SO IT
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - ITALY REQUESTS USG VIEWS ON SITUATION;
IGAD AMENDED PEACE PLAN

REF: A) STATE 47850 B) ROME 00950

Classified By: Pol M/C Thomas Countryman for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (U) This cable includes a request for guidance. See
paragraph 6.


2. (C) Summary. According to the MFA, U.S. and
international concerns regarding frontline state
participation in IGASOM (ref A) had been heeded by IGAD. An
unofficial draft report (paragraph 7) on the March 22 core
group (Italy, UK, Sweden, EC) meeting outlines divisions
among the Somalis and presents the core group,s suggestions
on how to move the peace process forward. End Summary.


3. (C) MFA Somalia Desk Officer Stefano Dejak told PolOff
March 23 that the amended IGAD plan specifies that initial
troop deployment will be undertaken by Uganda and Sudan with
remaining IGAD countries (frontline states (FLS)) providing
logistics, equipment, emergency assistance and training.
Dejak expressed Italian and core group satisfaction that
concerns regarding frontline state troop deployment had been
heeded by IGAD. He also stated that, although there are
divisions, the Somalis generally responded favorably.
According to Dejak the amended plan will be approved by IGAD
and the AU Peace and Security Council and will come to the
UNSC for approval "sooner than expected."


4. (C) Dejak remains concerned over disagreements within
the Somali TFG, exemplified by President Yusuf's rejection of
the Assembly's vote endorsing IGAD deployment without FLS
troops. Italy hosted a core group meeting March 22 to discuss
the situation and to develop a plan of action. Dejak
provided PolOff with an unofficial draft readout (text in
paragraph 7) from the meeting.


5. (C) Dejak expressed concern that if the peace process
fails, fundamentalist groups will thrive and could work to
transform Somali society much like the Taliban did in
Afghanistan. With the likely approval of the amended IGAD
plan and the possible relocation of the TFG this summer,
Dejak stated that "developments are coming to a head8 and
that therefore the core group and the U.S. must make a
concerted effort to move the peace process forward.


6. (C) Dejak expressed great satisfaction with the recent
USG public statement and demarche on Somalia, but added that
Italy and the core group countries want to ensure that they
and the U.S. are &on the same page strategically and
tactically.8 He stated that &Italy and the core group want
to work in an integrated manner with the U.S. Mission in
Nairobi and are eager to know the USG,s frank analysis on
recent developments.8 Specifically, Dejak requested
feedback on the USG,s reaction to the amended IGAD plan and
wanted to know if the USG would support approval of the plan
at the Security Council.


7. (C) Rough Draft of core group report on latest
developments in Somalia. Note internal numbering.

Begin Text:

"Following the decree issued by Yusuf late Sunday rejecting
the parliamentary vote on FLS on legal grounds, and pressure
on the Speaker to vacate his residence at the Regency Hotel
in Nairobi (suspected political pressure from Kenya),the
Speaker made it known that he and a
considerable number of MPs (suspected to be around 100) would
leave (their Hotels) to Mogadishu immediately according to
the Charter (Moga Capital). Gedi moved during yesterday to
counter this attempt by mobilising authority to him from the
Council of Ministers to decide on where the TFIs should
relocate inside Somalia. A stormy and divisive
discussion apparently ensued in the cabinet meeting resulting
into a walk-out by some 10 Hawiya (powerful) Ministers. The
remaining members of the council (some 64 ministers,
assistant ministers and ministers of state) voted unanimously
in favour of establishing Baidoa and
Jowhar as operational sites until the issue of the capital is
adequately addressed. Gedi announced this in a press
conference late in the afternoon. The Hawiya leaders also
contested the continued lack of procedures in cabinet
meetings (yesterday's was the first in two months; no written
procedures have been developed or approved; and Council is
attended unconstitutionally by assistant ministers and deputy
ministers with equal voting rights).


At the same time, Italy hosted an informal meeting in the
morning of yesterday to discuss the fast deteriorating
situation (present: IT, UK, SW, UN, EC later joined by US).
The meeting agreed that immediate informal visits to the
Speaker and Gedi should be rushed calling for restraint and
cessation of reactionary statements with the view to
de-escalate the situation and provide an environment for
dialogue.

The group made the same points to both leaders:

That:

Only a lose - lose situation will result from a division in
the institutions with the IC not recognising either of the
two sides;

Inclusivity and reconciliation remain the two pillars for the
peace process and its success and must be restored
immediately as the institutions are transitional in nature
and decisions must remain consensual derived on the basis of
reconciliation and compromise;

Both legal and political issues are the cause of the
division, and that focus should be established on the
political angle of the problem leaving aside the legal issues
since all parties are guilty of respecting rules and
resolution will not be to the satisfaction of all parties;

The IGAD Council communiqu did provide new space and fresh
grounds upon which new proposals could be built for the
parliament to debate away from the divisive issue of FLS
deployment;

All efforts must go to restoring the image of the TFI after
the unacceptable confrontation that ensued on 18th March.

The Speaker accepted to consider an opportunity for
reconciliation, but wanted to avoid, under every
circumstance, a return to debate in Parliament on the FLS
issue as this will again become a scene of division. Gedi had
a difference story: he told via his Planning Minister (an
influential cabinet Minister highly connected to the
President) that the most powerful leaders among the
Mogadishu-based Hawiya have become too arrogant, rejecting
compromise on "operational sites" (Baidoa and Jowhar in
addition to Mogadishu) even after the Council approved the
inclusion of the Mogadishu Plan into the TFG relocation
plans; willingness to appoint a special monitoring committee
for Mogadishu; and allow adequate time for its implementation
(90 to 120 days). The contention came over the need to move
the TFIs to sites other than Mogadishu during this period
Gedi informed. The PM said that it was
clear that these Hawiya leaders were not going to accept any
compromise allowing TFIs to operate in any location inside
Somalia other than Mogadishu and for any reason, preferring
Nairobi instead. The Hawiya kept on stating that Mogadishu is
named as capital in the charter and only the parliament can
make changes to this issue. Gedi wanted to
rest that authority (for naming operational sites other
than Moga) with him.

The international informal group will today meet the Hawiya
leaders who abandoned the session yesterday.

Observations:

Senator Raffaelli identified three issues require address
after achieving a temporary stand-down agreement for
dialogue:


1. Constructing a new proposal using the opportunity IGAD
provided (phase one no FLS deployment).

a. The proposal will have to credit viable parts of the
Mogadishu Plan into the national TFG relocation plans to
avoid giving the impression that Mogadishu is a clan
property/issue.

b. Phase One should be allowed adequate duration
accommodating the implementation of reconciliation in
sensitive parts of Somalia and progress in Mogadishu.

c. Commencing planning for ceasefire and disengagement on
countrywide basis.


2. Identifying the approaches to be employed for dialogue


among the divided parties on this new plan, with the view of
taking it to parliament for fresh debate having secured
agreement on a compromise vote.


3. Consolidating transparency and accountability in the
procedures of conduction of dialogue and decision-making
process in both Parliament and Council of Ministers
interaction to the satisfaction of all parties." End Text.



8. (U) Khartoum Minimize Considered.

SEMBLER


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2005ROME01012 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL