CODEL HAGEL MEETINGS IN KSA FOCUS ON IRAQ, IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 RIYADH 009342

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2015
TAGS: OVIP PINR PREL PTER SA IZ IR
SUBJECT: CODEL HAGEL MEETINGS IN KSA FOCUS ON IRAQ, IRAN
AND ISRAEL/PA

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael Gfoeller for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) On November 30 and December 1, Senator Chuck Hagel
(R-NE) led a delegation including Senator Tom Carper (D-DE)
and Representative Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) to the first
Senate-level visit to Saudi Arabia in over two years. The
delegation received a warm welcome in meetings with King
Abdullah bin Abd al-Aziz, Crown Prince Sultan bin Abd al-Aziz
and Foreign Miniser Saud al-Faisal. In addition, the
delegation also met during their stay with the Assistant
Minister of Petroleum, Abdulaziz bin Salman, addressed an
American Business Group breakfast, and convened a press
roundtable. The three main official meetings focused largely
on developments in Iraq, Iran's regional role, and
Israel/Palestinian issues. The CODEL explained their
seven-country visit through the Middle East was intended to
guage local perceptions of developments. The Saudi
leadership, while troubled by continuing violence in Iraq,
emphasized the U.S. responsibility to bring stability to and
counter Iranian influence in Iraq, and pledged to do what
what they could to help. The Saudis also showed surprising
receptivity to a revived Roadmap process in light of PM
Sharon's recent defection from Likud and declaration to
pursue a peaceful way forward. The Saudi Majles al-Shura
Secretary General, Sheikh Saleh, joined the group for their

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official meetings, and the Majles encouraged the delegation
to sustain contacts between the respective legislative
bodies. End summary.

===========================================
Iraq: Still in Turmoil but Optimism Growing
===========================================


2. (C) The King expressed his dismay over continuing loss of
life - both Iraqi and American - in Iraq; a feeling echoed by
the Crown Prince and Foreign Minister. All leaders, however,
urged the U.S. not to withdraw forces or lose focus until
Iraq was stabilized. The King, in typically grand
terminology, emphasized that settlement in Iraq would be
impossible without justice prevailing first. The Crown
Prince was more specific. He explained that Iraq was
different from other Arab countries in that it was divided
between Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurds. This, perhaps, made
achieving unity more complicated, but he urged the
legislators to use American power to help make Iraqis feel
united. In response to Senator Hagel's view that a key to
stabilizing Iraq after the December 15 elections was ensuring
positive engagement by regional countries, the Crown Prince
said that the KSA was against intervention in the internal
affairs of others, but that this does not mean that Saudi
Arabia would not assist financially and morally. What Iraq
needs, he continued, was assurances to the Iraqi people that
they would be ruling themselves.


3. (C) The Foreign Minster provided the most detailed
analysis on Iraq. He began by updating the delegation on the
Cairo Iraq Reconciliation Conference of November 18-20. FM
Al-Faisal noted that all of Iraq's factions - and a broad
array were present in Cairo - were now more aware of the
potential for Iraq's dismemberment without active engagement
to cease sectarian conflict. If only the Shia and Sunni in
Iraq could resolve their differences, a majority of Iraq
would be committed to unity. With these two Arab elements of
the Iraqi population in place, it would be possible to form
an army, erect a government, and allow the U.S. to finish its
mission in Iraq. FM Al-Faisal was now more hopeful - after
all parties had gathered "under one roof and at one table"
and talked - of a stable political process moving forward.
While he was now confident that the Sunnis would participate
fully, he emphasized again that the SAG wants to maintain an
"equal distance" from all parties, as any perception that the
Saudis were advocating the Sunni position would destroy the
entire enterprise.


4. (C) In response to Senator Hagel's question on the
importance of the final resolution from the Cairo meeting
advocating the withdrawal of U.S. forces, FM al-Faisal
replied that he did not view the reference to American
withdrawal as negative as the U.S. itself wanted to withdraw
under the right conditions. In his personal opinion,
however, he noted that the U.S. should consider increasing
troop levels in the short term to ensure the political
process concludes successfully. This, he concluded, would
make the overall period U.S. troops were needed in Iraq
shorter. In response to Senator Carper's question on the
progress of Iraqi security forces and prospects for their
self-sufficiency, al-Faisal replied that a political
settlement must precede the formation of an effective Iraqi
army. If the Iraqi military was divided along sectarian
lines, and the people did not trust the army to forego acts
of reprisal for past wrongs, the army would lack the will and
capacity to keep the peace and defend the nation. FM
al-Faisal was optimistic on the prospect of creating a
capable Iraqi army built upon settlement of sectarian issues.
Of all the Arab states, Iraq had the best army, with a good
officer corps, and he noted that such an able force could be
created again. Without a political settlement first,
however, he saw the security situation - and the process of
creating an effective, legitimate army - remaining
"stalemated." On perhaps his most optimistic note, he
suggested that, once the army is established, the problem of
terrorism in Iraq will "wither away."


5. (C) The Foreign Minister closed by reemphasizing the need
for a political settlement as a condition precedent to
further progress and avoiding Iraq's "dismemberment". The
intent of the Constitutional scholars of Iraq's Constitution
- like those of the U.S. Constitution - was to avoid a return
to tyranny. What the political settlement must do is to
counter the risk of disintegration inherent in the enhanced
freedoms contained in the Constitution. The King also noted
the importance of America taking an informed approach to the
complexities of Iraqi society and politics. He cautioned the
delegation that America should "deploy its power and wealth
wisely", and while he recognized that American interests in
Iraq are noble, he added that one way to avoid problems is to
understand well the circumstances involved and combine such
nuanced understanding with a commitment to justice.

===================================
Iran: Reconciliation Initiative
Amidst Continued Concerns Over Iraq
===================================


6. (C) In response to the delegation's request for Saudi
views on Iran, the King shared that he had met on November 26
with Ali Velayati, International Affairs Advisor to the
Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei. (Note: Velayati served
as Foreign Minister from 1981-1997 and ran for President in
2005.) The King noted that Velayati's visit as an emmisary
of the Supreme Leader represented the first such visit ever
to the Kingdom. The King added that he had discussed a broad
range of issues, and that Velayati had told him that Iran
wanted to broaden and deepen its relations with Saudi Arabia.
The King recalled that KSA-Iran ties had flourished under
former Iranian presidents Rafsanjani (1989-1997) and Khatami
(1997-2005),and that he hoped the new President of Iran,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, would be more sensible than early
indications might suggest. The King recounted that Velayati
had proposed the formation of a joint bilateral committee to
address all aspects of Saudi-Iranian relations. The King
accepted this proposal, and appointed FM Saud al-Faisal to
work with Velayati as co-Chairs of this joint committee. The
King concluded by noting that Velayati was unwilling to
discuss Iran's current relations with Iraq in any detail
during their meeting.


7. (C) The Crown Prince also adopted a slightly less
adversarial tone regarding Iran compared with recent
meetings. While emphasizing continued SAG concerns of
Iranian infiltration into Iraq, and calling on the U.S. to
prevent this, the Crown Prince added that Iran was "our
friend". That said, the Crown Prince added that, even as a
friend, Iran must "remember its place". The Foreign Minister
further detailed the evolving Saudi view of Iran's regional
role. In response to a question from Senator Hagel regarding
Iran's potential involvement in post Iraqi election regional
security arrangement, al-Faisal also began by emphasizing
that current Iranian policies in Iraq were a source of
bilateral friction. The FM said the SAG had incontrovertible
evidence of negative Iranian involvement in Iraq and
recounted that he had shared this view with GOI emmisary
Velayati during his visit, and that the King had been frank
in telling Velayati that the SAG was disturbed by Iran's
current actions in Iraq. Surprisingly, al-Faisal recalled,
Velayati welcomed the SAG's views, noting that "he wanted to
hear from us". Regardless of possibly improved bilateral
communications, al-Faisal reaffirmed that the SAG was aware
that Iran was sending money, people and officials into
Southern Iraq and that Southern Iraqi official activities
were now conducted in both Arabic and Persian. Al-Faisal
concluded his response by saying he hoped that a sense of
community among Iraqis could avoid a confrontation over these
developments.


8. (C) Later on in the discussion, al-Faisal returned to the
issue of Iran in response to a delegation question on
possible ways forward on Iraq. Al-Faisal suggested that the
U.S. and regional parties must "keep Iran engaged" because
"disregarding the Iranians will not make them go away".
Al-Faisal added that he was not advising accommodation,
rather he advocated a policy of facing the Iranians with the
truth. For example, he continued, the Iranian activities in
Iraq and their development of WMD were both destabilizing to
the region. He suggested the U.S. and Saudi Arabia work
together to convince Iran to accept the establishment of
WMD-free zone in the Middle East.


9. (C) Prince Al-Faisal noted that Iran was a very old and
highly civilized country with a very proud people, but
lamented that "too much pride sometimes leads to flawed
policy, and this has happened with Iran." While he described
Iran as, unfortunately, an "enigma" and a "country of
extremes" whose future actions were difficult to predict, he
suggested maintaining pressure on the Iranian government to
adopt a more peaceful posture. He recounted that the new
Iranian President, Ahmadinejad, had begun his term with a
very negative approach on foreign policy, but that the
Supreme Leader had maneuvered to keep him "out of power" and
that Khamanei was "tired of Ahmadinejad's fanaticism."
Al-Faisal concluded by suggesting hopefully that such a
marginalized figure, who has after three months in office
still been unable to form a cabinet, may not have an
opportunity to implement his declared aggressive policies.
(Comment: Nonetheless, President Ahmadinejad traveled to
Mecca on December 7-8 as the Iranian representative to the
Extraordinary Islamic Summit of the Organization of the
Islamic Conference. Ahmadinejad again repeated the strident
and aggressive tones of his UNGA address at the OIC, when he
took additional swipes at Israel and called the Holocaust a
"myth". This may lead Khamenei to take additional actions to
reduce his firebrand President's negative impact. End
comment.)

============================================= =====
Sharon as Peacemaker: Saudis Surpisingly Pragmatic
============================================= =====


10. (C) The delegation visited Israel earlier in their trip,
and shared their views with the King on developments there.
Senator Carper asked the King's reaction to PM Sharon's
decision to leave the Likud party to form a new centrist
party, which would include Shimon Peres, and was purportedly
dedicated to advancing the Roadmap. The King asked if
Sharon's change of approach may find parallels with a changed
American approach to Israel-PA peace, to which Senator Carper
replied that the U.S. sees PA Prime Minister Abbas as a
partner in peace and emphasized that he needed support.
Senator Carper also thanked the King for Saudi Arabia's
financial support to the Palestinian Authority. The King
replied that he looked forward to America's growing
engagement with the PA.


11. (C) The Crown Prince outlined the SAG views on
Israel-Palestine in detail. He began by recounting Saudi
efforts at the Arab League summit in 2003, which enjoyed
broad support in the Arab League and internationally, to
advance a peace proposal that had foundered under Israeli
objections. He also regretted Israeli opposition to another
Saudi peace proposal from 2000 which called for a UN or
American force to be stationed in the Occupied Territories to
support progress on peace negotiations. If Israel had not
rejected these two proposals, Prince Sultan added, the region
could have avoided the difficulties of the recent past. The
Crown Prince continued that the SAG feared that Israel would
adopt similar obstructionism to delay implementation of the
Roadmap. Speaking frankly, he confided that he did not feel
the Israelis or the Palestinians were comfortable living
under current conditions.


12. (C) Senator Carper agreed, noting that Sharon had left
Likud exactly because he felt it could never be part of a
lasting solution for peace. Carper added that twenty years
ago, those advocating a two-state solution were considered
extremists, and that now PM Sharon was adopting this
approach. The Crown Prince replied that, without doubt,
Ariel Sharon was a clever and courageous man. It was these
two characteristics that led him to tour the al-Qods mosque
which began the current intifada. Now Sharon was able to
correct this mistake and move in a direction which serves
Israel and the Israeli people.


13. (C) The Foreign Minister also accepted the Sharon
decision as a positive development, but noted that it was
important that the Palestinian people's financial situation
improve dramatically for peace to have a chance. Senator
Carper replied that the U.S. was providing increasing amounts
of aid to the PA and enhancing contacts with the Palestinian
business community. Al-Faisal replied that Israel must
forthrightly face the conditions that the Palestinians now
endured, which the FM described as living at "sub-subsistence
levels", dependency, and economic isolation. This, concluded
Al-Faisal, for the best educated population in the Arab
world. Carper replied that the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
and subsequent opening of the Refah crossing were positive
steps in this direction. The FM agreed, and commended the
Secretary of State for her laudable achievement in helping to

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broker this breakthrough. The FM concluded this discussion
by noting that Saudi Arabia would support the PA, and that
"if Sharon comes to us with a peaceful plan, we'll support
him".


14. (C) Comment: All Saudi interlocutors called for greater
engagement between the SAG and the U.S. Congress, and
welcomed more such visits in the future. Post strongly
endorses this view. Not only will such engagement help in
formulating and executing informed bilateral and regional USG
policies, it will assist in mobilizing the Saudi leadership
and the Saudi Majles al-Shura to adopt a more substantive
role for the Majles in deliberations of national policy.
While the Majles lacks the institutional weight of other
centers of power, particularly because it lacks the presence
of Saudi royalty among its membership, it is the body best
positioned - with adequate support from senior Saudi
leadership - to integrate institutionally regional
democratization movements into Saudi society. End comment.


15. (U) Codel Hagel departed post immediately after meetings
and was unable to clear this message.
GFOELLER