Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05RIYADH4932
2005-07-14 10:08:00
SECRET
Embassy Riyadh
Cable title:  

SAUDI ARABIA: WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN KING FAHD DIES

Tags:  PGOV PREL SA 
pdf how-to read a cable
P 141008Z JUL 05
FM AMEMBASSY RIYADH
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8033
INFO GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMCONSUL JEDDAH PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
S E C R E T RIYADH 004932 


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL SA
SUBJECT: SAUDI ARABIA: WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN KING FAHD DIES

REF: RIYADH 3517

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador James Oberwetter. Reason: 1.4
(b,d).

S E C R E T RIYADH 004932


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL SA
SUBJECT: SAUDI ARABIA: WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN KING FAHD DIES

REF: RIYADH 3517

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador James Oberwetter. Reason: 1.4
(b,d).


1.(S) Mission has reported previously on King Fahd's
condition. We have no new information of significance to
report at this time other than recent pronouncements that his
condition has "stabilized." However, we believe it would be
prudent to begin to consider what will occur following his
death. As a first step, Embassy therefore presents the
following scenario for a funeral and succession.

--------------
Succession
--------------


2. (C) The announcement of the King's death and the
designation of the new King and Crown Prince will probably be
simultaneous. Prince Khalid bin Sultan describes in his
memoires how the inner Al Saud family council formally pledge
their allegiance (bayah) to the two new leaders in the
minutes/hours following the monarch's passing.


3. (C) For the first time, under the 1992 Basic Law, the King
-- and not the family -- selects the Crown Prince.
Nevertheless, the King's choice for Crown Prince must receive
the approval of the family. In practice, it is doubtful that
there will be a change in the top leadership. That is, Crown
Prince Abdullah will likely ascend the throne and Prince
Sultan will become Crown Prince.


4. (C) The question mark is whether a new Second Deputy Prime
Minister will be announced immediately, as was the case after
King Khalid's death in 1982, when Prince Sultan was
immediately designated Second Deputy Prime Minister. If so,
it would be proof that the succession question had previously
been resolved by the senior Al Saud. However, naming the
Second Deputy Prime Minister is not required.

--------------
Funeral
--------------


5. (C) The actual burial will take place within 24 hours,
most likely in Riyadh. There is a remote possibility,
depending on time of day of death, that the late King's
remains would be transported to Jeddah for burial in Mecca.
This would still have to meet the 24-hour burial requirement
and also represent a break with tradition. The late King
Khalid's burial was a chaotic affair: throngs of people lined
the streets around the Grand Mosque and Al-Oud cemetery in
Riyadh. However, we should not anticipate many public signs
of grief. Conservative Saudis believe in submission to God's
will in all things, including death.


6. (C) Arab (Muslim) leaders who are able to arrive in Riyadh
in time, or are fortuitously already present, will attend the
funeral. Non-Muslims may not. However, Muslim funerals,
especially in conservative Saudi Arabia, dispense with the
ceremony often seen in the West and elsewhere. Thereafter,
foreign non-Muslim delegations will arrive to offer their
condolences and pay their respects to the new leadership.
Unlike Western societies, or more Westernized Arab countries,
there is no set protocol or ritual to govern the handling of
these foreign delegations. Saudi Arabia's Bedouin traditions
will prevail, and there will be a tremendous rush of Saudi
notables who will compete for access to the new leadership.


7. (C) In 1982, Vice President Bush, Secretary of Defense
Weinberger, Senator Charles Percy of Illinois, Senator J.
Bennett Johnston of Louisiana, Representative William
Broomfield of Michigan, Representative Clement Zablocki of
Wisconsin, General Lew Allen Jr., Air Force Chief of Staff,
Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security
Affairs Robert McFarlane, and Joseph Twinam, Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs
comprised the official U.S. delegation. They arrived within
48 hours of the announcement of the King's death.


8. (C) Following the funeral, the new King will almost
certainly address the nation on television. The government
will likely call for a brief period of official mourning,
probably three days. During that time, the King and many of
the surviving sons of King Abd al-Aziz will receive pledges
of loyalty from other royal family members, the armed forces,
the ulama (religious leaders),tribal leaders, and ordinary
citizens - a process involving literally thousands of people.
Provincial governors will swear loyalty oaths on behalf of
the King. When not receiving oaths, the King and new Crown
Prince will meet with visiting dignitaries. Government
offices and most commercial enterprises will close for three
days.


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