SPDC GETS SERIOUS ABOUT A NEW CAPITAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000763

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINS MCAP BM
SUBJECT: SPDC GETS SERIOUS ABOUT A NEW CAPITAL

Classified By: CDA a.i. Ron McMullen for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Amidst a swirl of rumors, evidence is
emerging that the SPDC truly plans to move at least some
portion of the government 250 miles northward to Pyinmana.
The GOB has not publicized the decision or the alleged order
that will have several ministries on the move by July 1st.
Similarly, the reasons for the apparent choice of Pyinmana
are mysterious. However, we've no doubt that they are
somehow tied in with Than Shwe's megalomania and
single-minded pursuit of power for himself and his cronies.
End summary.

Who and When?


2. (C) Rumors are rampant in Rangoon about SPDC earnestness
in moving some or all of Burma's national administration to
the rural town of Pyinmana -- in southern Mandalay Division,
about 250 miles north of Rangoon. For months there has been
speculation about this move, including wispy tales of massive
communication and construction projects in the area -- much
to the benefit of the SPDC leader's closest business
associates. However, apparently the SPDC leadership finally
approved the relocation of the first tranche of ministries
beginning July 1st.


3. (C) Details are very hazy. However, according to a GOB
source the first group of ministries being sent northward
are: Information, Forestry, Agriculture and Irrigation, Posts
and Telecom, and Defense. Other unverified information
includes the Ministries of Energy, Livestock and Fisheries,
and Industry (1) among this first group. Already the chosen
ministries have started shipping equipment, files, and some
personnel. The source told us that total relocation of these
pioneers should be complete by the end of this year. Rumor
has it that the entire military and civil apparatus will be
in place in Pyinmana by the end of 2006. There is no
definitive information on what will be expected of foreign
embassies.


4. (C) Burmese exile press outlets report serious
disenchantment among civil servants who will be expected to
uproot family and homes and move to the custom-built capital.
Pyinmana is not a large town and has none of the services or
amenities that can be found in Rangoon. Currently there is
no civilian airfield near Pyinmana and it is far from the sea
(though the Rangoon-Mandalay rail line and a fine new road
pass through it). Even worse, the planned location of the
new ministries and military headquarters are not in Pyinmana
itself, but 20 or 30 miles outside the town in the foothills
of the Pegu Yoma.

Why?


5. (C) The GOB has not made public its order to the first
ministries to move or even its intention to shift the capital
from Rangoon. Thus, we can only speculate on the SPDC's
apparent choice of Pyinmana. The town has not always been a
backwater. During and after World War II, Pyinmana (as a
central location in the Burman-dominated central portion of
the country) was used as a military headquarters by the
Japanese and Burmese army. For many years it was a hub of
Communist anti-government activities. Today the area around
Pyinmana has some large military installations, but the town
itself is best known for the government agricultural research
school located there.


6. (C) From a larger historical perspective, the move is not
as arbitrary as it seems. It was customary for Burmese kings
to shift their capital periodically for political, economic,
or supernatural reasons. Though Rangoon has been Burma's
capital city since colonial days, it has been administered by
Burmese only since 1948. It is clear that SPDC Senior
General Than Shwe increasingly views himself as the inheritor
of the mantle passed down the centuries by Burma's great
builder kings. Thus through monarchical glasses, a move to
Pyinmana after nearly 60 years in Rangoon is a logical and
consistent step to take.


7. (C) Another, related, school of thought is that the SPDC
leader wants to build a second capital as part of a strategy
to assert more direct control over the country. Currently
the nation is "ruled" by 12 regional commanders who report to
distant Rangoon and who may or may not offer their primary
allegiances to Than Shwe. With a northern capital at
Pyinmana, and a southern commercial capital in Rangoon, the
Senior General could appoint two politically reliable "super
commanders" who would in turn oversee the regional commanders
in their zone. (Note: one oft-heard rumor is that regime
number three and Than Shwe apostle Gen. Thura Shwe Mann has
already been posted to Pyinmana. End note.) Such a system
prevailed in Burma until the late 1950s, and for some years
now regional civil administration officials have been
appointed according to this north-south system (with the
northern "capital" in Mandalay).

Comment: Strange Doings


8. (C) The real size of and motivation behind this apparently
genuine move of the capital will become clearer as time goes
on. There could be linkages to the SPDC's strong-arm
constitutional convention and election expected in the next
year or two. There could even be truth to ideas that
paranoia and fear of a sea invasion are driving the
decisionmaking -- though we are doubtful of this. In any
case the Senior General's secretive, but apparently
comprehensive, plan offers further evidence of his growing
megalomania and of the lengths to which he will go to ensure
power remains with him and his hand-picked followers. End
comment.
McMullen