NLD: "WE HAVE LOST CONTACT WITH ASSK"

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000060

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BM NLD ASSK
SUBJECT: NLD: "WE HAVE LOST CONTACT WITH ASSK"

REF: A. RANGOON 20

B. 04 RANGOON 1612 AND PREVIOUS

C. 04 RANGOON 1591 AND PREVIOUS

D. 04 RANGOON 1563

E. 04 RANGOON 1647

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: As a result of the regime's increasing
restrictions on Aung San Suu Kyi, NLD party leaders report
they now have "absolutely no contact" with the detained
democracy leader. Nothing would indicate ASSK is facing
imminent danger. However, the NLD's information is troubling
in that the party cannot assess her well-being and has no
ability to consult with her on strategy, a further blow to
the pro-democracy movement. Meanwhile the regime announced
that the National Convention will reconvene on February 17,
but has failed to communicate with the NLD or respond
directly to the party's December letter to Chairman Than
Shwe. End Summary.


2. (C) On January 13, P/E chief and Poloff called on NLD CEC
members, including Chairman U Aung Shwe and Secretary U Lwin,
to discuss recent developments. U Aung Shwe said that party
leaders no longer have any means to communicate with Aung San
Suu Kyi at her University Avenue compound, where she remains
under house arrest. Under new arrangements imposed by GOB
authorities in late December 2004 (ref B),ASSK's two
household companions are prohibited from departing the
compound to purchase food and other supplies (designated ASSK
supporters are allowed to deliver provisions to an on-site
Special Branch (SB) officer, but are not allowed to
communicate with the compound residents).


3. (C) Furthermore, U Aung Shwe said that the NLD had learned
that ASSK's personal physician, whose access to ASSK was
recently reduced from daily to weekly visits (ref C),is now
further limited to only one visit per month. (Note:
Information about the physician's access is difficult to
verify as he is no longer permitted to meet with NLD leaders
or with foreign diplomats. End Note.) "We now have
absolutely no contact with ASSK," said U Aung Shwe, "and we
remain concerned about her, particularly her health."
According to mid-level NLD sources, the physician most
recently visited ASSK o/a January 6, but was then hauled in
for questioning by SB officers over the weekend of January
8-9.


4. (C) On a separate issue, we noted that the SPDC had
announced that it intends to reconvene the National
Convention (NC) on February 17. U Lwin said that the NLD had
received no direct overtures from the regime on any matter,
including either the NC or a December NLD letter to Chairman
Than Shwe (ref D). U Lwin observed that the political
situation remains in a status quo: the SPDC intends to plow
ahead without the NLD (or the pro-democracy ethnic parties)
and secure a new constitution that enshrines a preeminent
governing role for the military. He added that the only
unresolved component in the NC process remains whether the
ethnic cease-fire groups (CFGs) agree to participate and sign
off on a new constitution.


5. (C) Comment: We have no information that would indicate
that ASSK is facing any imminent danger or increased risk.
We have made it abundantly clear to the GOB that the regime
is solely responsible for her safety and security, most
recently with the Home Minister in December (ref E).
However, the NLD's information that ASSK is now facing even
tighter restrictions is troubling. In addition to irregular
and unreliable information about her well-being, the party
does not at the moment have the ability to consult with her
about party strategy and pertinent developments, a severe
blow to the pro-democracy movement which relies on her
leadership and decisions. As for the National Convention and
the cease-fire groups, we believe it is highly probable that
the SPDC announced a date to reconvene with a clear
indication that at least the major CFGs intend to return to
the table. End Comment.
Martinez