SINGAPORE PM LEE'S BURMA VISIT: BEATING AROUND THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000400

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON BM SN
SUBJECT: SINGAPORE PM LEE'S BURMA VISIT: BEATING AROUND THE
BUSH

REF: A. SINGAPORE 936


B. SINGAPORE 911

C. RANGOON 379

D. RANGOON 358

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Singapore Prime Minister Lee visited Burma
on March 30 and, contrary to international press reports and
a preview by his foreign minister of an anticipated tough
approach (ref A),he apparently did not directly urge Burma
to give up its turn to chair ASEAN in 2006. However, we're
told, PM Lee was satisfied that his more ambiguous approach
yielded an SPDC willingness to "take into account ASEAN's
collective interests" and to discuss the issue at the
upcoming ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Cebu. We have
low expectations that "soft" ASEAN approaches will lead the
SPDC generals to give up their much anticipated turn to chair
ASEAN; they'll only do so on their own terms and in their own
perceived best interests. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On April 4, Singapore Ambassador Thambynathan
Jasudasen provided the COM and P/E chief with a readout of
the March 30 visit to Burma of Prime Minister Lee Hsien
Loong. According to Jasudasen, PM Lee's "introductory" visit
consisted of four parts: a lunch with ten local businessmen
closely linked to Singapore trade and investment; a meeting
with Prime Minister Lt Gen Soe Win; a meeting with SPDC
Chairman Sr General Than Shwe; and an official state dinner.

"Give Us Your Dollars;" "Give Us Your Skies"


3. (C) PM Soe Win, joined by four GOB ministers, gave PM Lee
a standard SPDC lecture on regime activities and
achievements, with a particular focus on economic issues.
Singapore, Soe Win said, accounted for over $1.5 billion in
investments in Burma, but the GOB wanted to reverse a
precipitous decline in recent years. PM Lee, taking on board
input from the Rangoon-based businessmen, said that Burma
needed to complete an investment guarantee agreement and
address the problems of current investors before trying to
secure new ones. PM Lee also added that "there is severe
competition for Singapore dollars, especially from China and
India."


4. (C) The two Prime Ministers also discussed tourism (Lee
pressed for more open skies, noting that Laos and Burma were
the only countries in the region where Singapore airlines
were restricted to a single destination) and human resources
training (Singapore has trained nearly 2,000 Burmese civil
servants since 1991 and is prepared to expand the program if
the GOB so desires). On the East Asia Summit, PM Lee put
forth GOS views that in order to distinguish the forum from
"ASEAN Plus Three," the Summit should also include other
countries such as India, Australia, and New Zealand. Amb.
Jasudasen said that PM Soe Win agreed on the need to be
inclusive, but did not elaborate further, leaving "uncertain"
the GOB's view on the precise mechanism for the Summit.

Beating Around the Bush


5. (C) Jasudasen noted that neither side specifically raised
or mentioned the ASEAN chairmanship, scheduled to rotate to
Burma in 2006. Instead, PM Lee used a "business angle" to
address the issue, suggesting that the region's economies are
increasingly integrated and, consequently, more closely
linked politically. "Therefore," Lee told Soe Win, "within
ASEAN, we can't put up walls." PM Soe Win, according to
Jasudasen, said that the GOB would "take into account"
ASEAN's collective interests and the ASEAN Foreign Ministers
"will meet and discuss these issues" in Cebu (April 10-12).


6. (C) PM Lee's subsequent meeting with SPDC Chairman Than
Shwe, who had been briefed by PM Soe Win on the latter's
encounter with Lee, was a shorter, "though nearly identical"
version of the Soe Win meeting. Than Shwe told Lee that he
was aware the two Prime Ministers had discussed "and agreed
upon" various bilateral and multilateral issues. Than Shwe,
consistent with previous meetings with visiting officials
(ref D),was joined by the SPDC's top brass (except for S-1
Thein Sein, who was busy wrapping up the recent session of
the National Convention),but dominated the meeting and was
the only one who spoke from the Burmese side.
Speak Loudly and Carry A Small Twig

7. (C) The COM raised international press coverage of PM
Lee's visit, noting that many reporters had characterized
Lee's message to the SPDC as "urging" or "pressing" Burma to
give up its rotation to chair ASEAN. Jasudasen agreed that
such an assessment was not entirely accurate, but said "it
would be a never-ending task to correct every single media
inaccuracy" and, he added, "this message helps domestically
in Singapore where the PM is under pressure from members of
Parliament to do something" about Burma.


8. (C) Amb. Jasudasen assessed that "only three or four ASEAN
countries" (Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and maybe the
Philippines) would consider suggesting that Burma "step
aside" in 2006. Describing Singapore as "the hatchet man,
always doing the dirty work," Jasudasen said that Laos,
Vietnam, and Cambodia would vehemently object to any
tinkering with the rotation "because they could be the next
target" of concerns over human rights and democracy issues.

Comment: Wink, Wink, Nudge, Nudge


9. (C) Amb. Jasudasen noted that PM Lee and PM Soe Win also
held a 15-minute "four eyes" bilateral discussion without
aides or interpreters and "it is not fully certain what was
discussed." While it is possible that Lee was unambiguous in
his private tete-a-tete with Soe Win, the readout we received
tells us it is more likely that Singapore soft-peddled the
ASEAN chair issue with the SPDC and happily let the press
characterize the GOS's approach as "pressure." Jasudasen
said that PM Lee was "quite satisfied" that the GOB had
signaled an openness to take on board "ASEAN's interests" and
is "prepared to discuss" related issues in Cebu.


10. (C) The Burmese generals know that there is no ASEAN
consensus on the issue of bypassing Burma for the ASEAN chair
rotation. They will use that to their advantage at upcoming
regional meetings (Cebu and Kyoto) and we don't envision they
will go quietly into the night on the basis of various
"discreet prods" and "gentle nudges" (to quote a few press
reports). The only way we see the generals giving up their
much-anticipated glory of chairing ASEAN is if they do so on
their own terms and in their own perceived best interests.
End Comment.
Martinez