BURMESE AUTHORITIES ARREST PRO-DEMOCRACY ETHNIC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000185

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINS BM NLD
SUBJECT: BURMESE AUTHORITIES ARREST PRO-DEMOCRACY ETHNIC
LEADERS

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (S) Summary: In what could be a significant setback for
the democracy movement, Burmese security authorities have
arrested several ethnic Shan political leaders and democracy
activists, including Hkun Htun Oo, an influential political
party chief and longtime ASSK supporter. Authorities have
also prohibited the country's leading ethnic political
coalition from commemorating Union Day on February 12. The
regime's motives are unclear, but the SPDC may view ethnic
musings about forming a parallel government, and recent
meetings among ethnic democrats and cease-fire groups, as a
threat to disrupt the regime's "road map to a disciplined
democracy." End Summary.

SUPPRESSION OF DEMOCRATIC ASPIRATIONS CONTINUES


2. (SBU) According to Embassy sources, in the early evening
of February 9, Special Branch (SB) officers visited the
Rangoon residences of Hkun Htun Oo, chairman of the Shan
Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD),and party
secretary Sai Nyunt Lwin, and detained the two pro-democracy

SIPDIS
leaders for questioning.


3. (SBU) Two days later, Hkun Htun Oo and Sai Nyunt Lwin
remain in custody, apparently at SB headquarters, and sources
indicate they may have been charged as "subversive threats"
to the State. Hkun Htun Oo is also a principal leader of the
United Nationalities Alliance (UNA),the country's primary
coalition of pro-democracy ethnic political parties.
Security authorities have also forced the UNA to cancel a
Union Day dinner planned for the evening of February 12 at
Hkun Htun Oo's residence, to which the ethnic parties had
invited NLD leaders and diplomats.


4. (C) On February 10, five SB agents returned to Sai Nyunt
Lwin's house, ransacked the place for two hours, and
reportedly confiscated party documents, including speeches
and statements planned for traditional opposition Union Day
functions. According to NLD sources, Hkun Htun Oo was
scheduled to deliver the keynote address at the NLD's planned
Union Day event for political party members and diplomats.
(Note: As of COB February 11, this NLD event will still take
place and the Chief of Mission and other emboffs plan to
attend. End Note).


5. (SBU) Ethnic pro-democracy party sources also report that
security authorities in Shan State arrested on February 8 two
additional SNLD Central Executive Committee members, Sai Hla
Aung and Sao Tha Oo, who were reportedly traveling from
Taunggyi to Rangoon to attend a party meeting. The two
detained persons are reportedly being held at the SB office
in Taungoo, Bago Division.


6. (SBU) Unverified reports also indicate that on February 7
several pro-democracy activists were arrested in Taunggyi.
They include U Shwe Ohn; Daw Cho Cho Kyaw Nyein (non-Shan),
daughter of former Deputy Prime Minister U Kyaw Nyein; U Thu
Wai (non-Shan),a recently released political prisoner; and
Saya Mying Than, sponsor of the meeting.

COMMENT: ANOTHER BLOW TO DEMOCRACY


7. (C) The arrest of the SNLD leaders could be a significant
setback for the pro-democracy movement, in particular the
apparent arrest of party chief Hkun Htun Oo. He is an
influential political leader who has dominated ethnic
politics for the past 15 years. His SNLD party, longtime
supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi, garnered 23 seats in the 1990
elections, second only to the NLD and ahead of the regime's
proxy political party. Hkun Htun Oo, himself an MP-elect,
has heretofore managed to evade arrest (the vast majority of
MPs and pro-democracy leaders have spent time in jails or in
regime security facilities since the 1990 elections) and his
SNLD party is one of only two pro-democracy ethnic political
parties that have not been "de-registered" by the SPDC.


8. (S) The regime's motives behind the arrest are unclear.
However, members of the UNA coalition have in recent weeks
quietly alluded to undefined plans to announce a parallel
government. If the SPDC caught wind of such talk, and
suspected that Hkun Htun Oo would unveil any such plans on
Union Day, there is no question that a swift reaction would
be in store. Furthermore, Hkun Htun Oo and other UNA members
have in recent months reportedly conducted secret meetings
with leaders of ethnic cease-fire groups, purely, they say,
to discuss generic political issues. However, there is no
doubt that the regime, preparing to reconvene the National
Convention in less than a week, would perceive such
encounters as a conspiracy to disrupt their "road map to a
disciplined democracy." End Comment.
Martinez