BURMESE GOVERNMENT HEADS FOR THE HILLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001295

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMESE GOVERNMENT HEADS FOR THE HILLS

REF: A. RANGOON 1276


B. RANGOON 1275

C. RANGOON 1265

Classified By: P/E Chief W. Patrick Murphy for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: As the first week of the GOB's relocation of
the capital to remote Pyinmana comes to a close, it appears
the move will encompass a more significant portion of the
government than most observers initially expected. Up to a
dozen ministries are already on the move, with more offices
and senior military officials to follow. Despite GOB verbal
announcements to diplomats and stringers on November 7, the
official media has made no mention of the move, leaving the
Rangoon rumor mill to fill the void on motivations. Leading
theories, as far-fetched as they seem, point to the advice of
astrologers or fear of a foreign invasion. Although the
relocation is itself a stunning development, even for a
regime notorious for its lack of predictability and logic,
the well-educated civil service seems to be complying -- like
sheep. End Summary.

EXODUS: MOVEMENT OF GOB PEOPLE!


2. (SBU) Rangoon civil servants, residents, and foreign
observers appear stunned at the widening scope of the
military regime's relocation of Burma's "administrative
capital" to remote Pyinmana. When the GOB began "Phase I" of
the relocation on November 6, few believed that more than a
handful of offices would be affected. As of November 10,
however, significant portions of at least 10 ministries have
already moved, with apparently more close behind.


3. (U) Among the ministries already on the move to Pyinmana,
located over 240 miles north of Rangoon, are Foreign Affairs;
Information; Home Affairs; Health; Communications, Post, and
Telegraphs; Hotels and Tourism; Energy; National Planning and
Economic Development; Progress/Border Areas and National
Races and Development Affairs; Transport; and Commerce.


4. (SBU) Although contacts at several of these ministries
have indicated that some personnel may remain in Rangoon to
staff small "branch offices," in many cases it appears that
entire departments and divisions are relocating. Among the
more bizarre relocations (and there are many) is the
"Seamen's Employment Control Division" (SECD) of the Ministry
of Transport. The SECD processes thousands of Burmese
seamen, most of whom arrive and depart the country via the
port of Rangoon. They will now have to make the two-day
round trip inland to Pyinmana to obtain their required
permits.


5. (C) On November 9, the Rangoon Division military
commander, Lt Gen Myint Swe, told the Charge that he, too,
would relocate to the new capital in his capacity as Chief of
Military Affairs Security (septel). This was the first
indication we've had that senior military officials will also
join the migrating civil service. Chinese diplomats told
Emboff that SPDC Chairman Than Shwe intends to stay in
Rangoon, but senior ministers are not immune. The Minister
of Health, for example, told us on November 8 that he expects
to move soon and that he "thinks" the GOB will provide
housing and office space for his numerous staff (ref B).

WHAT MOVE?


6. (SBU) Even though diplomats and stringers were advised of
the relocation on November 7 (ref C),the official media have
reported not a word, despite dozens of daily convoys headed
north, loaded with civil servants and government furniture.
Most of those making the move received than 48 hours
notification. All family members must stay behind in
Rangoon, and some reports say that the GOB expects them to
vacate government-provided housing within the next few months.


7. (C) Initial reports from Pyinmana indicate minimal
infrastructure, with up to five or six government employees
sharing small dormitory-style rooms. According to several
contacts, the GOB has responded to a handful of AWOL cases by
quickly filing charges under Section 5(J) of the Emergency
Provisional Act of 1950, which allows for administrative
sentencing, without trial, for periods up to seven years
prison confinement.


8. (C) MFA officials confided to us that their Burmese
Embassies abroad are now "temporarily" cut off from
headquarters and "must rely on each other for assistance."
The MFA's Americas Division Director, a former diplomat in
Washington, called us on November 9 to say good-bye and joked
that future invitations to U.S. Embassy functions should be
accompanied by an air ticket.

WHAT MOTIVATION?


9. (C) The regime's virtual blackout on meaningful news has
simply fed the already robust Rangoon rumor mill on
motivations for the bizarre relocation of the capital. Much
of the focus has been on the likelihood that SPDC Chairman
Than Shwe, and he alone, made the decision, driven by whim,
astrological advice, and/or self-aggrandizement. (Note: Ref
A inadvertently identified Pyinmana as the hometown of SPDC
chairman Than Shwe. He has spent time on military assignment
in Pyinmana, but his actual hometown is Kyaukse, located
further north in Mandalay Division. End Note.)


10. (SBU) Virtually every one of Burma's ancient kings, and
Than Shwe fancies himself as having kingly qualities, moved
the country's capital after assuming the throne. An early
twentieth century book on Burma, compiled from old
manuscripts on the building of Mandalay as a throne capital,
advised that "this Royal habit of relocating the capital was
placing a great strain on all creatures, monk and men, and
animals, horses, cows, oxen, dogs, cats, not to mention the
loss of lives of turtles and fish and shrimp in the abandoned
moats."


11. (C) Though improbable, much of the speculation on motives
has also focused on a view popular among locals that the
regime fears a potential foreign invasion. In this regard,
NLD leader U Lwin's historical information on his own
government role in the 1960s and 1970s is quite telling: in
every military exercise in which he participated, Pyinmana
was the location of choice for a hypothetical war-time
command center in the event of attack by India, China, or
even the United States (ref A).


12. (C) According to press sources, a stringer for Reuters
asked the Minister of Information at the GOB's November 7
press conference if the relocation to Pyinmana was related to
any concern over a possible U.S. attack on Burma (a common
rumor in Rangoon). The Minister replied, "How do you know
about this? Did they inform you in writing?" An MFA
official recently requested Emboff to procure a copy of
"Stealth," a 2005 action movie staring Jamie Foxx which
features a fictional air assault on a Rangoon Ministry of
Defense facility. The official reported back that she had
provided the video to her superiors, at their request, and
commented that she hoped "this movie didn't have anything to
do with the sudden move."

COMMENT: FOLLOW THE LEADER


13. (C) The regime's sudden relocation of the capital has
stunned observers of a military regime notorious for its lack
of predictability and logic. Although there has been some
grumbling, the GOB's civil service, many of whom are well
educated professionals, seems quietly resigned to heading
north - like sheep. Some diplomats speculate that the
regime's literal retreat to the hills of Pyinmana might be
the straw that breaks the camel's back, already weighted by
the SPDC's repression, corruption, and mismanagement. Huge
fuel price increases and rising inflation, however, have not
sparked any major outcry. As the first week of the
relocation comes to a close, we don't see any visible signs
that this latest perplexing regime decision will lead to
revolt, either. End Comment.
VILLAROSA