BURMA'S KACHIN STATE: RESOURCES CAN'T BUY PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001281

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2015
TAGS: ECON SENV PGOV PHUM PREL PINS BM
SUBJECT: BURMA'S KACHIN STATE: RESOURCES CAN'T BUY PEACE

REF: RANGOON 1256

Classified By: Consular Officer Walter Parrs for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: An uneasy peace presides over remote Kachin
State in Burma's extreme north, a region long associated with
conflict. On a recent trip, Emboff learned that local
democracy activists are active, though severely hampered by
GOB harassment; natural resources remain abundant, but poor
extraction techniques have negative economic and
environmental repercussions; and development cooperation
between the region's most significant cease-fire group and
the Burmese regime has had some results. The Kachin,
equipped with a high degree of self-reliance and natural
resources, aim to preserve their limited autonomy. The
regime, however, is keen to exert full central control over
the region. Conflict, it would seem, is far from over. End
Summary.

KACHIN PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT: BELEAGUERED, BUT ACTIVE


2. (C) During an October trip to Kachin State (reftel),
Emboff met in the state capital of Myitkyina with regional
National League for Democracy (NLD) officials, including
Chairman U La Sein; Secretary U Ne Win; and State Organizer U
Aung Soe. U La Sein explained that, despite continued GOB
harassment and surveillance, the regional NLD continues to
convene, though on an irregular basis. Party events are
closely monitored. The NLD leaders described as their "most
brazen activity" the regular application for official GOB
permission to participate in NLD national celebrations and
anniversaries. Regional military leaders routinely deny the
requests, but U La Sein said defiantly that the NLD will
continue to make the requests in the future, despite the
undesirable attention that such actions draw.


3. (C) Of the 300 plus NLD party members in Kachin State, U
La Sein estimates that no more than 70 are still active.
Most have succumbed to GOB pressure to cease their
association with the party and those who remain active are
scattered around the state with little ability to communicate
with each other. The GOB now employs indirect harassment,
working through the Union Solidarity and Development
Association (USDA),various women's associations, and other
government-controlled groups to isolate NLD members as
pariahs. The technique appears to be working; NLD party
members say they are unable to have substantive contact with
the local population.


4. (SBU) In July, according to the Kachin NLD leaders, 47
party members remained in detention as political prisoners.
As a result of subsequent releases, however, only four
members are currently behind bars: Nyunt Hlaing, Dr. Zaw
Myint Maung, U Kyi Lin, and Myo Aung Than.

RESOURCE RICH, BUT PEOPLE STILL POOR


5. (U) Timber, jade, and gold extraction dominates the
Kachin State economy, and local sentiment on all three
resources is decidedly blue. Jade is still abundant, but
industrial practices have evolved to exclude local Kachin
labor. Large corporations, such as Jade Land, have imported
heavy machinery, eliminating the need for substantial manual
labor. The ensuing unemployment has had a significant
negative impact on the local economy. The GOB controls jade
mining permits, and opportunities for new jade ventures are
not accessible to the average miner.


6. (U) While jade is still abundant, the Kachin believe that
most gold has already been mined. Jade comes from the
mountains, but gold is dredged from rivers using specially
designed trawlers. Those trawlers, operating side by side
across a river, have raked and re-raked the same riverbeds so
yields have declined markedly. Nonetheless, panning for gold
is accessible to anyone, so sifting silt remains a common way
to eke out a living. Over-harvesting of timber is a similar
story. Despite GOB efforts to tighten control over the
industry, Chinese demand for raw timber has led to
environmental degradation, and created opportunities for
opium poppy cultivators to take-over cleared land (reftel).

POST-CONFLICT DEVELOPMENT


7. (SBU) The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO),the
region's most significant armed ethnic group, has gradually
increased efforts to coordinate development initiatives with
the GOB since establishing a cease-fire agreement in 1994.
Under current arrangements, KIO sources told Emboff, the KIO
provides funding for development projects in return for
timber concessions. The most visible development project is
the construction of a new road leading north from Myitkyina
to the Irrawaddy confluence. The KIO contracted a Chinese
construction company for the project because of the low
quality of local companies.


8. (SBU) The KIO and the GOB also cooperate on building new
bridges. The KIO, for example, recently completed all
bridges under 100 ft. long in an area surrounding a hydro
power investment, while the GOB will complete the longer
bridges. The KIO and Jade Land are sponsoring the
hydroelectric project, which consists of two power plants.
KIO officials claimed the first plant will be completed by
year's end; however, many previous deadlines have passed and
few observers supported the KIO claim. The plants, if
completed, will power Myitkyina, Bamo, and some surrounding
towns, leaving areas controlled by the NDA-K, a smaller
Kachin cease-fire group, in the dark and reliant on
electricity imports from China (reftel).

NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN


9. (SBU) In September the Burmese regime posted a new head
of the Northern Command to Myitkyina. Major General Ohn
Myint immediately set out to clean the streets of trash and
to re-pave roads. He reportedly ordered the removal of
arbitrary checkpoints throughout the state and declared a ban
on illegal timbering (with draconian punishments for
transgressors). Overall, the Kachin appear to be pleasantly
surprised with the activist regional commander, but hold
guarded expectations. Maj Gen Ohn Myint is often quoted
around town for proclaiming himself a heavy drinker and a
hard worker, and jokes are made at the expense of the local
civil service for being unable to keep pace with him.

DENGUE OUTBREAK


10. (SBU) According to local sources, including NGO workers,
a dengue fever outbreak in Kachin State has claimed 18 lives
for the year as of September, among more than 600 reported
cases. In a rare occurrence, the state Department of Health
released data on the outbreak to UNICEF, including numbers of
cases.

COMMENT: A RECIPE FOR RENEWED CONFLICT?


11. (SBU) An uneasy peace presides over Kachin State, a
region long associated with conflict. With barely a pause
after the bloody WWII campaign to end Japanese occupation,
much of it fought in Kachin State, civil war broke out in the
region immediately after independence in 1948. The Kachin
have sought autonomy ever since. Although the regime secured
a series of cease-fire agreements in the late 1980s and early
1990s, ending major armed conflict, tensions and rivalries
steadily simmer among the diverse ethnic populations of
Kachin State.


12. (SBU) Kachin State is not unique. Most other ethnic
minority regions face daunting post-conflict development
challenges, if not outright neglect by the central
government. Kachin State, however, has several advantages.
Despite inefficient extraction, the state has significant
resource-based economic potential. The region is also well
known for its self-reliance, a trait, many locals say,
inherited from American Baptist missionaries before they were
expelled from Burma in the 1960s. Equipped with their
self-reliance and natural resources, and determined to
preserve their limited autonomy, the Kachin ethnic groups
confront a regime equally determined to exert full central
control over the region. Conflict, it would seem, is far
from over. End Comment.
VILLAROSA