KACHIN CEASE-FIRE LEADERS GEAR UP FOR THE NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000107

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM BM
SUBJECT: KACHIN CEASE-FIRE LEADERS GEAR UP FOR THE NATIONAL
CONVENTION

REF: USDAO RANGOON BM 240926Z JAN 05

Classified By: DCM Ron McMullen for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. Kachin Independence Organization (KIO)
leaders, meeting with Emboff to gauge current U.S. policy
toward the GOB ahead of the upcoming National Convention
session, view their relationship with the GOB as basically
unchanged following former PM Khin Nyunt's ouster. The KIO
considers a December assassination attempt on the leader of a
Kachin splinter group as an internal power struggle over
commercial interests. End Summary.

KIO WILL AGAIN PARTICIPATE IN THE NC


2. (C) On January 21 Poloff met with Col. Zau Seng (aka U
Gaw Yi Zaw Hsaing),Vice-Chairman of the Kachin State Special
Region 2, and Dr. La Ja, Secretary of the KIO Central
Committee. Daw Seng Raw, Program Director of the
Kachin-based Metta Foundation (an independent local NGO),
also joined the meeting, which took place at the request of
the KIO leaders.


3. (SBU) Col. Zau Seng said that the KIO plans to
participate in the upcoming National Convention (NC) that
recommences in mid-February. He said that the KIO will be
sending the same 5 delegates who attended the May-July 2004
session (Note: The KIO, and the two other Kachin cease-fire
groups, NDA-K and KDA, are each allowed to send 5 delegates
as "special invited guests" for a total of 15 delegates and
each group may select its own delegates. End Note.)


4. (C) The KIO representatives wanted to know if the U.S.
positions on the NC, NLD, and ASSK have changed. Poloff
assured them that the U.S. position has not changed and that
we still recognize the legitimacy of the 1990 elections and
that NLD MPs-elect should be sitting in parliament, not in
jail. Col. Zau Seng also inquired about what role the United
States sees for the NLD and ASSK after the NC. Poloff
restated that all political parties should be allowed to
participate in the process and, without the release of ASSK
and the participation of the NLD, any subsequent elections
could not be viewed as a genuine opportunity to achieve
national reconciliation.


5. (C) The KIO representatives expressed that the basic
relationship between the SPDC and KIO remains essentially
unchanged following the ouster of former PM Khin Nyunt.
However, they admitted that it was requiring greater effort
and time to get acquainted and develop communication lines
with the Military Affairs Service (MAS),which has replaced
the role of Khin Nyunt's OCMI for liaising with the
cease-fire groups (CFGs).

WHO DONE IT?


6. (C) Col. Zau Seng discussed an attempted assassination of
the NDA-K leader Zahkung Ting Ying on December 10, 2004 (Ref
A). The KIO representatives said they offered to carry out a
joint investigation with the NDA-K, but their offer was
rejected. The KIO interlocutors believe it was an inside job
and the result of an internal power struggle, possibly due to
conflicts related to logging concessions with Chinese
entrepreneurs. To date no arrests have been made.

SPDC PROMOTES THE NATIONAL CONVENTION AMONG THE CFGs


7. (C) Official GOB media reported that Col. Zau Seng and
his party met with SPDC Secretary-1 (S-1),Lt. Gen. Thein
Sein, on January 23 to discuss the NC, the 7-step road map,
national reconciliation, and development goals. (Note: Col.
Zau Seng did not mention to us that he would be meeting with
S-1 during the same trip to Rangoon. End Note.) An
additional Kachin leader, Rev. Saboi Jum, participated in the
S-1 meeting and told us on January 24 that "significant gaps
exist between the SPDC and the Kachin positions" on the
drafting of a new constitution.


8. (C) Comment: The SPDC appears to be diligently working
to shore up support from the various ethnic groups and CFGs
leading up to the NC and to ensure their participation (S-1
also met in Hpa-an on January 10 with Pado Aung San, former
KNU Minister of Forestry who defected in 1998). There are no
signs, however, that the SPDC is ready to make any overtures
to the NLD, and there are no indications the SPDC is on the
verge of relaxing its grip on ASSK. End Comment.
Martinez