Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05RANGOON1054
2005-09-14 10:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rangoon
Cable title:  

AUSTRALIA SEES GRIM BURMA GETTING GRIMMER

Tags:  PGOV PREL BM AU 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001054 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL BM AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA SEES GRIM BURMA GETTING GRIMMER

REF: A. RANGOON 1053

B. RANGOON 989 AND PREVIOUS

C. RANGOON 332 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: CDA SHARI VILLAROSA FOR REASONS 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001054

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL BM AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA SEES GRIM BURMA GETTING GRIMMER

REF: A. RANGOON 1053

B. RANGOON 989 AND PREVIOUS

C. RANGOON 332 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: CDA SHARI VILLAROSA FOR REASONS 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Australian Ambassador Bob Davis painted a
bleak picture of life in Burma today during Charge's initial
call on him on September 13. His outlook matched the
pessimistic perspectives of Malaysia's and Brunei's
Ambassadors on September 12 (ref A). Davis said that Burma
in 2005 is proving to be a bad place for foreigners to do
business, and an Orwellian nightmare growing even worse for
ordinary citizens. Even those well connected to the regime
are being watched more closely, and all must get advance
approval from Senior General Than Shwe for overseas travel or
meetings with foreign diplomats. The rivalry between regime
leaders over succession and their cuts of business continues
to drive internal politics. End summary.

PARANOIA RUNS DEEP
--------------


2. (C) The October 2004 ouster of Khin Nyunt left the
isolationists in charge of Burmese policy, Ambassador Davis
told the Charge. Even traditional friends of the Burmese
regime find it difficult to gain access to decision-makers
now. The MFA now asks for 3-4 weeks advance notice of
in-country travel and meetings with other Ministries and
reviews each request before forwarding it to Cabinet or a
sub-Cabinet group for final decision (or, often, no decision
and no response).


3. (C) Any Burmese government worker, even at lower levels,
who wishes to travel abroad must receive the personal
approval of Than Shwe. This has a chilling effect on
training and scholarships, since few Burmese want their
personnel folder to be reviewed by the Senior General, who
may question why the nominee is held in high regard by
foreign missions. Likewise, any Burmese organization that
meets with a foreign diplomat in country without advance
permission risks being suspected of subversive aims, even if
the meeting was totally innocent.

THE POWER STRUGGLE
--------------


4. (C) The SPDC remains obsessed with the Khin Nyunt case,
Amb. Davis said. Some of the 5,000 former MI staff and Khin
Nyunt associates the regime whom sought to arrest have gone

underground or escaped to neighboring countries, and many of
the regime's intelligence files disappeared last October.
The SPDC is now trying to replace the files by calling in
people who were arrested or questioned in the past and asking
them to relate their life stories and all their contacts to
new case officers. The suspended sentence/house arrest that
Khin Nyunt and others received is not a sign of judicial
independence or a possible Khin Nyunt comeback, Amb. Davis
believes, but a new regime strategy whereby those under house
arrest can "buy" better conditions for themselves and their
family members.


5. (C) The rivalry between Than Shwe and Maung Aye
continues, Amb. Davis said, although he noted that the
supposed "coup" last month (Ref B) gained notice more from
filial ties than from facts. According to the Ambassador, a
Bangkok-based Burmese exile reporter tried to sell the story
of a leadership crisis to international wire services there
and, when they refused to run it, gave it to his
brother-in-law, the BBC World Service announcer who went
public with the story. The concurrent movement of senior
officials when Maung Aye's daughter gave birth prematurely in
a Rangoon military hospital and the father of Than Shwe's
son-in-law was medevaced to Singapore then fueled the rumors.


6. (C) Amb. Davis said that Maung Aye clearly expects to
move to the Senior General role once Than Shwe,s health or
grasp on power weakens further, while Than Shwe does not seem
comfortable with this prospect and has allowed other
loyalists to rise to increased prominence in recent months,
most notably Joint Chief of Staff Gen. Thura Shwe Mann, Prime
Minister Soe Win (quietly promoted to Major General recently)
and Secretary-1 Gen. Thein Sein.
THE CONNECTED GET RICHER
--------------


7. (C) Judging from the number of Mercedes, Ferraris and
SUVs in the elite parts of Rangoon, the generals and
businesspeople with the right connections continue to enjoy
the good life while the rest of the country regresses. Davis
agreed with the Charge that there seem to be more wealthy
Burmese businesspeople today than was true five years ago,
but the gap between ordinary citizens of Burma and the elite
grows wider every day.


8. (C) The regime likes public works projects, Amb. Davis
said, because cronies get the contracts (such as the two
crony construction companies building the new "capital" at
Pyinmana) and the projects get them into the papers. One
Cabinet Minister candidly told Amb. Davis that the GOB
continues to build power plants, rather than repair the sorry
state of the existing transmission lines, because it is
better to have photo ops at new generating stations than
standing next to new power lines.


9. (C) Australia believes that about 80 percent of foreign
trade and financial transactions involving Burma are not
recorded. A Burmese commercial lawyer told Amb. Davis that
he understands little about the import/export business but
makes $10,000 monthly (with a cut to his military patrons) by
selling duty-free licenses to local supermarkets and hotels
to bring in foreign goods. Amb. Davis said that most
foreign-based investors, especially Singaporeans, had been
badly burned in Burma in recent years and would gladly sell
their remaining investments if they could find buyers (NOTE:
in contrast to the Singaporean Ambassador's assertions in Ref
A).

WHILE EVERYONE ELSE GETS WORSER
--------------


10. (C) The people of Burma tolerate their deteriorating
living conditions, Ambassador Davis said, not because of
Buddhist tolerance or stoicism, but simply from fear. One
may not see as many armed soldiers at street corners as in
other repressive countries, but every citizen can feel the
regime,s power every day. The massacre of 1988 and attack
on Aung San Suu Kyi in 2003, as well as the GOB's frequent
use of indefinite detention, are potent reminders. In most
trials, the accused do not have access to their lawyers and,
when they are, the lawyers are often not allowed to speak or
take notes at the trial. In some cases (ref D),"lawyers"
from Special Branch or military intelligence are appointed
instead of lawyers chosen by the accused,s family. Many
arrested never even get a trial: some have been held in jail
without charges for over 15 years.


11. (C) Amb. Davis urged that international humanitarian aid
to Burma be allowed to freely enter, especially in the public
health, nutrition and education sectors. The people hit
hardest by cancellation of overseas aid efforts are in the
ethnic regions furthest from the center, Davis said. Ethnic
issues still color much of Burmese politics, and the
military's tendency to shoot first and negotiate later has
grown even stronger since Khin Nyunt fell. More than ever,
one must be an ethnic Burman and a Buddhist to have any
access.


12. (C) COMMENT: Ambassador Davis came across as a very well
informed and insightful observer of Burma. Charge cited the
close collaboration at all levels of our embassies in other
posts and pledge to encourage that here (it is already
ongoing). We should have very productive relations. End
comment.
Villarosa