Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05RANGOON1036
2005-09-08 11:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rangoon
Cable title:  

BURMA: HOST COUNTRY AVIAN INFLUENZA PREPAREDNESS

Tags:  PINR SOCI PGOV PHUM EAID EAGR BM 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001036 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2015
TAGS: PINR SOCI PGOV PHUM EAID EAGR BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: HOST COUNTRY AVIAN INFLUENZA PREPAREDNESS

REF: A. STATE 153483

B. RANGOON 988

Classified By: Poloff Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b, d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001036

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2015
TAGS: PINR SOCI PGOV PHUM EAID EAGR BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: HOST COUNTRY AVIAN INFLUENZA PREPAREDNESS

REF: A. STATE 153483

B. RANGOON 988

Classified By: Poloff Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: This cable contains responses to questions
sent to post (ref A) on the level of preparedness of the
Government of Burma (GOB) for a possible outbreak of Avian
Influenza. Official GOB data is difficult to obtain and is
often not reliable. Our responses are based on the best
information currently reliable. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The questions and Post's responses follow:

Q: WHERE DOES PREPARING FOR AN AVIAN INFLUENZA (AI) PANDEMIC
RANK AMONG GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES? WHO AND WHAT WOULD MOST
INFLUENCE THE COUNTRY TO GIVE THE ISSUE A HIGHER PRIORITY?

A: AI currently does not appear to be a high priority among
government leaders. A few articles have appeared in
newspapers describing AI outbreaks in neighboring countries
and in 2005, state media published a WHO press release on the
global threat of AI, but it does not appear to be a topic
that the top leadership considers on a regular basis. If
neighboring and other ASEAN countries impress upon Burma that
it is in the regional interest to give more attention to AI
issues, and that an outbreak would have negative effects on
trade and tourism in Burma, the GOB might make AI a higher
priority. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and
the World Health Organization (WHO) are two key international
organizations (IOs) that could exert positive influence on
the GOB to make AI a priority.

Q: DOES THE GOVERNMENT HAVE A STRATEGY FOR PREVENTING AI FROM
BECOMING A PANDEMIC AND CONTAINING A PANDEMIC ONCE IT OCCURS?
IF THE COUNTRY HAS A STRATEGY, HOW CAPABLE IS IT OF
IMPLEMENTING IT?

A: We do not believe that the GOB has a serious plan for
dealing with an AI pandemic. According to FAO in Burma,
there is only one center in Rangoon that can test for the AI
virus. It reportedly has the capability of classifying the
virus from H1 through H15. There is no clear plan in the

field for identifying, reporting, and transporting suspected
cases to Rangoon for testing. It would likely take days or
weeks from the first detection of dead animals in the field,
or a suspected human case, until the test results could be
determined in Rangoon. According to FAO, the GOB has not
prepared advance media messages that could be broadcast to
the country to advise people what to do in the event of a
suspected outbreak, how to handle dead animals, or what
personal hygiene measures are important. Even if a strategy
is devised, the infrastructure for implementing it from the
central to the grassroots level is very poorly developed.

Q: WHAT MEASURES HAS THE GOVERNMENT TAKEN TO DATE TO PREPARE
FOR A PANDEMIC (STOCKPILING ANTIVIRAL MEDICATIONS, CONDUCTING
SURVEILLANCE, DEVELOPING HUMAN VACCINES, ETC.)?

A: We are not aware of any plan by the GOB to stockpile
Tamiflu for widespread use, though it is reportedly available
on an extremely limited basis through a few high-end health
care providers for wealthy clientele. It is possible that
the GOB may have some limited stockpiles for use by the upper
echelons of the government. We are unaware of any regional
stockpile plan that includes Burma. We understand that there
has been at least one instance where a Burmese border
checkpoint intercepted a shipment of over 2,000 newly hatched
chickens that were being smuggled into Burma from Thailand
and exterminated all of them. We do not believe Burma has
any capacity to develop human vaccines.

Q: HOW CAPABLE IS THE COUNTRY OF DETECTING AND RESPONDING TO
AN OUTBREAK, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS?

A: According to the FAO, the Livestock Breeding and
Veterinary Department has positioned a government veterinary
officer in every district, but they lack transportation and
budget to travel to rural areas. They must depend on
voluntary reporting by community leaders and citizens in the
field. There very likely would be a significant time lag
from the onset of an epidemic until this information reached
the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries in Rangoon,
particularly from remote areas where GOB infrastructure is
minimal.

Q: HOW TRUTHFUL WILL THE GOVERNMENT BE IN REPORTING THE SCOPE
OF ANY OUTBREAK?

A: Based on the GOB's response during previous crises, we
have low expectations that they will provide any useful,
timely information. According to the U Maung Maung Nyunt,
Director General of the Livestock Breeding and Veterinary
Department, Burma does not export poultry products so the GOB
has no economic reason for trying to cover up an outbreak.
In reality, however, there is no independent press and regime
does not report negative news, in part because of cultural
superstitions that a natural disaster or epidemic is a sign
of divine disfavor of current rulers.

Q: HOW WILLING AND CAPABLE IS THE GOVERNMENT OF IMPOSING
QUARANTINES AND SOCIAL DISTANCING MEASURES (CLOSING SCHOOLS,
PUBLIC GATHERINGS, MASS TRANSIT)?

A: This is one area where the authoritarian regime has
demonstrated strong capacity. If the GOB is convinced of the
importance of imposing quarantines, they will effectively do
so.

Q: WHAT ARE THE CRITICAL GAPS THAT NEED TO BE FILLED IN ORDER
TO ENHANCE THE COUNTRY'S DISEASE DETECTION AND OUTBREAK
RESPONSE CAPABILITIES? WHAT IS THE COUNTRY'S GREATEST NEED
FROM THE USG OR INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS?

A: The greatest need is probably training for officials from
the central to the grassroots level. Raising awareness among
the general populace is also urgently needed. While the
government claims to have adequate testing equipment in
Rangoon, well-equipped regional centers are also needed, so
that outbreaks can be more quickly verified. Furthermore,
Burma's general health care system has some well-qualified
personnel, but is woefully lacking in medical resources. The
GOB would be unable to manage an AI pandemic.

Q: WOULD GOB LEADERS BE RECEPTIVE TO MESSAGES FROM U.S.
LEADERS THROUGH A BILATERAL APPROACH, AT A MULTILATERAL FORUM
SUCH AS THE UN OR APEC, OR THROUGH BILATERAL CONTACTS WITH
ANOTHER COUNTRY?

A: Currently strained relations between the GOB and USG would
likely make a bilateral approach problematical; however, an
outbreak of AI might prove to be a catalyst for greater
dialogue. A multilateral organization, such as WHO or FAO,
or working through intermediary countries such as ASEAN
members, would probably be the most effective approach at
this time. China has the most influence.

Q: WHO IS THE KEY "GO-TO" PERSON OR OFFICE FOR USG OFFICIALS
TO INTERFACE WITH?

A: From the GOB the best person to interface with is the
Minister of Health Dr. Kyaw Myint. He is about the only
civilian minister in the current government. U.N. agencies
and international NGOs consider him forward-looking and a
rare official here who seems to have a genuine concern for
the welfare of the Burmese people. The Director General of
the Livestock Breeding and Veterinary Department, U Maung
Maung Nyunt, is another potential GOB interlocutor. If
obtaining regular access to GOB officials is a problem, USG
officials can also work with the FAO, WHO, UNDP, and other
international NGOs in Burma to address AI issues.

Q: HOW WELL INFORMED IS THE POPULATION ABOUT THE AI THREAT
AND ABOUT MEASURES THEY SHOULD TAKE TO MITIGATE THE THREAT?

A: Public awareness about AI is extremely low in Burma due to
a lack of independent media and minimal AI coverage in
official media. The GOB urgently needs to inform the public
about how to mitigate an AI pandemic. Absent GOB action,
international radio media, including VOA, Radio Free Asia,
BBC, and the Democratic Voice of Burma, could play a vital
role in raising awareness of AI issues via their Burmese
language broadcasts.

Q: IS THE GOB ALREADY WORKING WITH ANY INTERNATIONAL
ORGANIZATIONS OR OTHER COUNTRIES ON THE AI ISSUE? ARE
GOVERNMENT LEADERS LIKELY TO ASK FOR ASSISTANCE FROM THE
UNITED STATES OR OTHER COUNTRIES?

A: The FAO, and to a lesser extent, the WHO, have been in
dialogue with their GOB counterparts on AI issues. The
Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries also maintains contacts
with the World Animal Health Organization (OIE). The
Japanese government has provided testing equipment and some
AI training to the GOB. Burma also cooperates modestly with
its ASEAN counterparts on AI issues, although Burma was
absent from the special ASEAN meeting held in early 2005.
Q: WOULD ITS MILITARY ENFORCE QUARANTINES?

A: Yes, the military is the most logical organization in the
country for enforcing quarantines and would do so, if so
ordered.

Q: WHAT WOULD IT WANT FROM THE UNITED STATES IN RETURN FOR
ITS EFFORTS?

A: Given the poor health infrastructure that exists in Burma,
coupled with many health challenges faced by the population,
the GOB would welcome material assistance from almost any
source. The GOB's wariness of foreign influence probably
means that technical expertise would be less welcome than
financial or material assistance.

Q: WHAT MECHANISMS ARE AVAILABLE FOR PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION TO THE POPULATION, PARTICULARLY IN RURAL AREAS,
AND HOW EFFECTIVE ARE THESE MEASURES?

A: Radio and, to a lesser extent, TV are the best media for
reaching people in rural areas, particularly in their own
ethnic languages. Both domestic and international media can
also play a significant role in broadcasting health messages
to the Burmese population.
Villarosa