ECUADOR: IS A PALACIO GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABLE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000879

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: IS A PALACIO GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABLE?


Classified By: Amb. Kristie A. Kenney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: A Palacio government could prove
sustainable in the short term (1-3 months),but will come
under increasing pressure to call new elections after its
first month. End Summary.


2. (C) Key factors behind this judgment:

-- Palacio has the support of the military and police high
command.

-- Palacio has the backing of the PSC, with 22 seats, the
largest party in Congress.

-- The elevation of Palacio was also backed by the following
political parties: ID (14),MPD (3),Pachakutik (4),
Socialists (3),DP (3),PRIAN (1) and 10 independents.

-- Palacio will include PSC and ID members in his cabinet.

-- The main indigenous organization (CONAIE) supported
Palacio as Gutierrez' replacement. Key indigenous leaders
tell us that Palacio will be acceptable for 1-3 months only,
however, until new elections can be held.

-- Street reaction has calmed since Palacio was sworn in,
after an initial negative reaction. That reaction appears
directed more at Congress than Palacio, who has emphasized
that he is not a career politician. Radio La Luna has called
on protesters to desist for the moment.

-- Pressures will mount on Palacio to announce early
elections (he has rejected this as unconstitutional, but
could do so by referendum) or should his early decisions
revive street protests. Thus far, his public statements have
mollified the protesters, which have operated independently
of political parties.
KENNEY