ECUADOR: THE WAY FORWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000878

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: THE WAY FORWARD

Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney. Reasons 1.4 (b&d)


1. (C) Summary: The dismissal by Congress of President
Lucio Gutierrez on April 20 and the swearing in of President
Alfredo Palacio has shifted the political landscape. Palacio
took office sounding notes of contrast with his predecessor,
including respect for the constitution and the letter of
Ecuador's international commitments, greater responsiveness
to the will of the people, and a vow to end impunity and
restore rule of law. With the situation still fluid, we are
taking action on several fronts. First, we will reach out
immediately to the new government privately, while
maintaining public reserve on the legitimacy of the new
government, to open channels to the new government. We will
also maintain close contact with the security forces to
encourage professionalism and restraint, and conduct outreach
to monitor reaction to the new government by the public,
media and elites here and in Guayaquil. This will include
outreach to Congress, Guayaquil political and economic elite,
private sector leaders, media leaders, senior statesmen,
indigenous and groups. In the medium term, and assuming the
Palacio government consolidates itself, we will need to
revisit strategies to support democratic institutions and
advance other USG interests. End Summary.

Dealing with Palacio
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2. (C) Gutierrez was dismissed under Art. 167, section 6 of
the Ecuadorian constitution, which permits dismissal of the
president for "abandonment of duties, declared by the
National Congress." Dismissal was chosen over impeachment
because the former requires a simple majority of 51 and
impeachment 67. The vote in favor was 60-0, with two
abstentions. The constitutionality of the dismissal of
Gutierrez is open to question, but ample precedent exists
here of irregular interpretations of the constitution which
are later legalized to permit government continuity. We have
resisted interpreting the constitution and do not believe the
USG has an interest in judging this issue.


3. (C) Palacio took office contrasting himself with
Gutierrez' discredited actions, swearing fealty to the
constitution and expressing respect for rule of law and
existing GOE commitments, responsiveness to public opinion,
and some concern with aspects of ongoing free trade
negotiations (especially intellectual property issues).

Action Plan: Short Term by Quito and Guayaquil
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4. (C) Government: With protests still possible which could
disrupt Palacio's hold over the presidency, we should not
rush to publicly legitimize the Palacio government.
Privately, however, it is urgent and beneficial to open
channels to the new government. We will do so by calling on
the three ministers already named, on the pretext of
fact-finding, and will use the calls to begin a dialogue
including key U.S. interests. We will do this outreach with
POL/ECON officers, not at higher levels. If requested by the
new president, the Ambassador will engage directly with
Palacio, without pronouncing or endorsing the legitimacy of
the government.


5. (C) Security Forces: The police and military high
command played a role the downfall of the Gutierrez
government, and has pledged fealty to the new government.
Police authorities have made a similar commitment. It is
essential, however, to continue to engage with the military
and police to keep the pressure on for professionalism and
restraint in dealing with the security situation, and to
monitor military intentions and internal tensions. We will
continue to do so.


6. (C) Outreach to Third Parties: In addition, we will
canvass contacts in key sectors: the media, the indigenous
movement, the private sector, selected members of the
dipcorps, senior statesmen and former ministers we respect.


7. (C) Congress: Is cowed by public protests calling for
their ouster, and keeping a low profile. We will monitor
them closely for actions which would affect the stability of
the new government. Palacio has already signaled that he
will not move to dissolve Congress or call early elections,
but has called on them to conduct a process of
self-examination and criticism.

Medium Term
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8. (C) Once the situation stabilizes, we will need to
revisit the question of how the USG can best assist Ecuador
to strengthen its democratic institutions and culture.

KENNEY