ECUADOR: FACTS ON SUCCESSION AND STATE OF EMERGENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000794

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: FACTS ON SUCCESSION AND STATE OF EMERGENCY


Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reason 1.4 (b&d)


1. (C) Summary: With political instability a chronic
problem in Ecuador, and in the face of imminent
anti-government strike action, we are providing background
information on constitutional provisions for a presidential
declaration of a state of emergency and for presidential
succession. The GOE appears calm in the face of partial
protests starting April 13. We have no information to
suggest that President Gutierrez is considering declaring an
emergency or will leave the Presidency. End Summary.

Presidential Succession Rules
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2. (SBU) The Ecuadorian Constitution (Art. 167-168) states
that the President will cease his functions under any of the
following circumstances: the end of the period for which he
was elected; death; renunciation accepted by the national
Congress; physical or mental incapacity (legally proven and
declared by Congress) that prevents the President from
carrying out his role; destitution after a political
impeachment; and by abandonment of his/her post, as declared
by the national Congress. Once the President has been
declared absent, his/her term is to be completed by the Vice
President. If neither the President nor Vice President are
able to finish the term, this role temporarily falls to the
president of Congress. The president of Congress must then
convoke the Congress to elect a new national President within
ten days.

State of Emergency
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3. (SBU) According to the Constitution (Art. 180-182),the
President may declare a nationwide or partial state of
emergency in the case of imminent foreign aggression,
international war, extreme internal unrest ("grave conmocion
interna"),or natural disasters. Once a state of emergency
has been declared, the President may take all or some of the
following actions: call for early collection of taxes and
other fees; redirect government funds (excluding health and
educational funds) towards national defense or disaster
relief efforts; relocate national government headquarters;
establish a nationwide or local security zone; censor media
communications; limit the Constitutional rights of freedom of
expression, freedom of association, home privacy, mail
correspondence privacy, free transit within Ecuador and
internationally, and the prohibition against forced testimony
against relatives or spouses; call up all military reserves
and deploy police; call for mobilization or demobilization as
needed; and close or open ports.


4. (SBU) The President must notify Congress within 48 hours
of the publication of a state of emergency decree. The
Congress has the power to revoke the decree, if it feels
justified. The state of emergency decree is valid for a
maximum of 60 days; however, it can be renewed. Once the
causes of the state of emergency have passed, the President
must decree its end and notify the Congress of this
immediately.

Both Provisions Tested
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5. (SBU) The current Constitution dates to 1998, and both of
these provisions were tested when in 1999-2000 President
Mahuad declared a state of emergency and later left his post
in face of a coup attempt. After the withdrawal of military
support for a brief triumvirate, Mahuad was replaced by
Congress with his VP, Gustavo Noboa, who served out Mahuad's
term.

Comment
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6. (C) A declaration of a state of emergency would give
President Gutierrez the power to prevent a national strike by
calling out the military and suspending rights of expression
and movement. However, doing so would be foolish, and would
clearly heighten the sense of crisis and galvanize
anti-government opposition. We have repeatedly counseled
Gutierrez and his advisors to respect the right of expression
and dissent, most recently during CJCS General Myers' meeting
with Gutierrez on April 11 (SepTel). Gutierrez was quick to
express commitment to maintaining these freedoms.


7. (C) The current political crisis over the Supreme Court
and ex-President Bucaram's return has generated calls by some
opposition members (including from leaders of the main
indigenous organization) for Gutierrez to resign and be
replaced by VP Alfredo Palacios. Given Ecuador's turbulent
political situation, we cannot rule out this possibility.
However, at this time we believe threatened strike action is
highly unlikely to lead to Gutierrez' resignation.
KENNEY