COURT SAGA CONTINUES, PROSPECTS IMPROVE

UNCLAS QUITO 000585

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KJUS PREL EC
SUBJECT: COURT SAGA CONTINUES, PROSPECTS IMPROVE

REF: QUITO 534


1. (SBU) Summary: There are signs that the three-month
crisis over the packing of the Supreme Court is nearing
resolution. On March 8, President Gutierrez submitted a
simplified referendum proposal to Congress. The opposition
had favored a law to immediately terminate the current
Supreme Court. Despite several attempts, neither the
government nor the opposition mustered the 51 votes needed to
act. The stalemate finally led to dialogue and on March 10
an anonymous compromise proposal circulated combining the two
alternatives. With the possibility of a compromise crossing
the aisles in Congress, the PRIAN still resisting change of
the Court, compromise could cost the government its defensive
alliance. End Summary.

Dueling Approaches; President's New Referendum
--------------


2. (SBU) The president's current referendum has been reduced
from ten to just one question, and proposes to shrink and
replace the Supreme Court with another selected by an
electoral college consisting of 13 civil society
institutions. The PRIAN has objected to the use of an
electoral college and called instead for the controversial
Supreme Court president to resign to restore the court's
legitimacy. Opposition members have criticized the lack of
an immediate cessation of the current court, portraying the
referendum as a trap designed to string out the current
court's term indefinitely. Civil society groups have told us
they would support the president's proposal if it were
modified with a near-term date the current court would cease
to function. Court workers declared an indefinite strike on
March 14, effectively shuttering the entire justice system,
while calling for the Supreme Court to be replaced.


3. (SBU) Presidential legal advisors have thus far refused
to modify the president's new proposal, citing judicial
uncertainty should the current court be terminated prior to
the naming of a new one. Within the government's
congressional alliance, opinions are still mixed. PRE
congressional leader Mario Touma has expressed openness to
dialogue and compromise to change the court. The PRIAN,
however, had publicly opposed any change in the court by
means of an indirect electoral college.

New Compromise Proposal
--------------


4. (U) On March 10, a new, unsigned proposal began
circulating. It combined the termination of the current
court, declared a judicial vacancy, and qualified the
President's referendum proposal as a matter of national
urgency. The proposal reportedly had the backing of the main
opposition parties (PSC, ID and Pachakutik),and members of
the president's PSP and independents.

UN Rapporteur Visit Could Help
--------------


5. (SBU) After initially denying a request for an earlier
visit, MFA Multilateral Affairs U/S Jose Piedrahita claimed
the GOE was looking forward to the visit to Ecuador by UN
Judicial Rapporteur Leandro Despouy. He expressed hope that
Despouy's visit might spur dialogue between opposing factions
in Congress on the court issue. Despouy arrived on March 13
to begin a round of talks and will leave on March 17.

Comment
--------------


6. (SBU) Our efforts to promote dialogue and compromise to
government, civil society and opposition leaders appear to be
paying off. Perhaps taking the Ambassador's March 7 advice
to heart (RefTel),President Gutierrez has noticeably lowered
the level of his anti-opposition rhetoric. Prospects for
dialogue have certainly improved as a result. Much will
depend on the willingness of the government's allies,
especially the PRIAN, to release the current court. We
understand the government's reluctance to accept a transition
period with no top court. But with the justice workers now
on strike, we have effectively entered a judicial vacuum.
There is clearly some way to go yet, but prospects for a
workable compromise are improving.
KENNEY