ECUADOR: PROTESTS GROW, BUT GOVERNMENT STABLE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000254

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: PROTESTS GROW, BUT GOVERNMENT STABLE

REF: A. QUITO 236


B. GUAYAQUIL 132


1. (SBU) Summary: The political scene is heating up again
here, as pressure mounts on the government to reverse the
overhaul of judicial institutions by the Ecuadorian congress.
The opposition is preparing a major protest march in Quito
for February 17. President Gutierrez' proposed referendum to
select a new court is in trouble with his congressional
allies. Former vice president Leon Roldos is gathering
signatures for a rival referendum, and some in the leftist
opposition are suggesting a compromise with Gutierrez.
Though none of these proposals are yet politically viable, we
are encouraging the GoE and the opposition toward dialogue
and compromise. We continue to support civil society efforts
to defend democratic institutions, and have warned the GoE to
discard any options which would dissolve the Ecuadorian
congress. End Summary.

President's Referendum in Trouble
--------------


2. (U) President Gutierrez introduced his proposed
referendum to congress on January 21. The ten-question
referendum was sent to the Constitutional Affairs committee,
with a request that it be declared a matter of national
urgency. The referendum includes measures to select a new
de-politicized Supreme Court, Supreme Electoral Tribunal,
Constitutional Court, and National Electoral Court, through a
new electoral college including representation from civil
society. If congress agrees, by a simple majority vote, that
the president's referendum is a matter of national urgency, a
procedural clock would start ticking, which would lead to a
binding referendum within 60 days.


3. (SBU) It is unlikely that the president's referendum
proposal, at least in its current form, will actually take
this route. The opposition is solidly against it, declaring
it a hoax and move to extend presidential powers. More
seriously for the president, the president's referendum is in
trouble within his governing alliance (Ref A).


4. (SBU) Most notably, Abdala Bucaram's PRE and Alvaro
Noboa's PRIAN object to further changes in the court. The
PRE wishes to use this court to clear its fugitive leader of
pending legal charges. The PRIAN, which currently has the
judges to block any such move, objects to what it perceives
to be the leftist composition of the electoral colleges
proposed by Gutierrez. Intense negotiations within the
governing alliance are ongoing, and Gutierrez released to the
press a letter to his political partners threatening to end
the alliance if congress refuses to act on the referendum.
Presidential insiders assure us privately that Gutierrez has
no such intention. He is, however, considering alternate
means to move forward, including proposing a referendum on
whether to dissolve congress. We have and will continue to
warn the GOE against any such move.

Opposition Rallying Themselves
--------------


5. (SBU) On January 26, Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot led an
anti-government march in Guayaquil, focused on local
complaints, which attracted around 70,000 participants (Ref
B). The march was deemed a success by opposition and media
commentators, despite the announced goal of mustering 200,000
protesters. Civil society and opposition leaders in Quito
promptly postponed a Quito anti-government protest scheduled
for February 2 to February 17, to attract greater support and
permit better planning. Organizers include a civil society
umbrella protest group called Civic Convergence for
Democracy; the Quito municipality, under mayor Paco Moncayo;
and the main political parties of the opposition: the
Democratic Left (ID); Pachakutik; and, most recently, the
Social Christian Party (PSC). Organizers hope to attract at
least 50,000 to a march in colonial Quito starting at 1500 on
the 17th. The opposition is being careful to say the march
is in defense of Ecuadorian democracy, rather than to
overthrow the Gutierrez government. No government-sponsored
counter-march has yet been announced, but one is expected.


6. (SBU) Meanwhile, Leon Roldos, a former vice president and
the third-place finisher in the presidential contest in 2002,
launched his own quixotic attempt to gather a million
signatures on his own 4-point referendum proposal. Roldos'
referendum includes the replacement of the current Supreme
Court with a new one selected by civil society, as well as
other unrelated issues. The constitution prohibits any such
initiative from a private citizen, reserving the right to
propose constitutional changes for the president only.
Roldos has told us he believes that the moral force of a
million signatures would compel authorities to permit his
referendum to go forward. Many interpret Roldos' campaign to
be the opening salvo of his 2006 presidential campaign, which
he has not denied.

Room for Compromise?
--------------


7. (SBU) Few if any political actors are openly discussing
the possibility of compromise over the court issue.
Opposition members generally urge the USG to apply
international pressure to get Gutierrez to reverse the
congressional stacking of the courts. An interesting
exception is Andres Vallejo, the Quito municipal council
president and an 'eminence gris' in the ID.


8. (SBU) Vallejo told PolChief on January 28 that the ID
(and some in the PSC) would be willing to offer President
Gutierrez a "guarantee of stability" in exchange for real and
immediate de-politicization of the courts. The stability
guarantee would permit Gutierrez to abandon his current
allies without fear of another impeachment process supported
by the main opposition. This scenario would involve the
members of the deposed Supreme Court resigning, permitting
the selection of new magistrates by existing formulas, or
even by the newly-formulated selection procedures
incorporated in the president's referendum proposal. Asked
if talks were ongoing between the ID and the government along
these lines, Vallejo said no. The president would need to
come to the opposition to pursue this option.

Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) Anti-government Ecuadorians have sought to enlist
the USG to resolve their constitutional controversy, in the
process demonizing Gutierrez alternately as an inept dolt or
a Machiavellian schemer, with Chavez-like pretensions. We
have thus far resisted taking the bait, while reiterating the
Ambassador's public and private statements of the imperative
of political stability and strengthening democratic
institutions. We have encouraged Ecuadorians to work
together to sort out their own constitutional issues. We
have also encouraged the government, opposition and civil
society to seek alternatives to strengthen judicial
independence. It took some time for these haphazard efforts
to get organized, but they now appear to be gathering steam.
The February 17 march will showcase the re-activation of the
main opposition parties, building on the momentum generated
by Nebot's successful Guayaquil march. In response,
President Gutierrez has acknowledged mounting pressure for
another change in the judiciary, and signaled his willingness
to change the court again, through his proposed referendum.


10. (SBU) With the fate of the president's referendum
proposal in trouble with his own allies, the Ambassador will
encourage Gutierrez and selected members of his team
(including presidential secretary Carlos Polit) toward
compromise. The first step in this direction would be for
Gutierrez to re-open lines of communication with willing
elements of the opposition to seek a workable compromise.
The Ambassador will also warn again against any further
democratic setbacks (i.e. no dissolving congress). Assuming
Gutierrez and his team can find a way to resolve the court
issue, we see recent anti-government protests more as an
opening salvo in the 2006 presidential race than a credible
effort to bring down this government.
Kenney