Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05QUITO2359
2005-10-18 15:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Quito
Cable title:  

GUTIERREZ RETURNS TO JAIL, PALACIO SOWS UNCERTAINTY

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL EC 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002359 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL EC
SUBJECT: GUTIERREZ RETURNS TO JAIL, PALACIO SOWS UNCERTAINTY

REF: QUITO 2348

Classified By: PolChief Erik Hall for reason 1.4 (b&d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002359

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL EC
SUBJECT: GUTIERREZ RETURNS TO JAIL, PALACIO SOWS UNCERTAINTY

REF: QUITO 2348

Classified By: PolChief Erik Hall for reason 1.4 (b&d).


1. (C) Summary: Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez returned to
Ecuador on October 14 and was promptly arrested and
incarcerated in Quito. Perhaps more destabilizing was an
announcement the same day by President Alfredo Palacio
proposing a national constituent assembly over congressional
opposition. On October 17 Palacio sent the assembly proposal
directly to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, making an end run
around Congress. While some civil society groups and
applauded the proposal, most political parties have reacted
negatively. Palacio's insistence on a reform agenda without
consensus could put his presidency at risk, and his latest
tactic makes him vulnerable to charges of flouting the
constitution. End Summary.

Gutierrez Returns
--------------


2. (U) Gutierrez arrived in Manta at approximately 1930
local time, by chartered aircraft from Bogota. A crowd of
approximately 500 supporters that had gathered earlier
outside the Manta airport was kept from the airport by the
police, and by the time of Gutierrez' arrival numbered around
200, according to press reports. On arrival at the military
side of the airport, Gutierrez, his former aide Fausto Cobo,
and his brother Gilmar Gutierrez were arrested by authorities
on charges of sedition, put on a military aircraft and
transported to the Garcia Moreno prison in Quito, arriving
around 22:00. In Quito another group of 200 Gutierrez
supporters had spent the day marching and being denied access
to the park in front of the palace. Upon his arrival in
Quito, Gutierrez and Cobo were assigned to a normal cell in
the maximum security prison for common criminals. A series
of Gutierrez government officials visited throughout the
weekend, smuggling out video recordings from the prison. A
march to the jail by Gutierrez supporters on October 17
attracted only 20 people, according to the police.


3. (U) Gutierrez' lawyers announced they would request
habeas corpus to release Gutierrez from preventive detention.
Under Ecuadorian law, this request must be made to the mayor
in the place of detention, in this case Quito mayor Paco

Moncayo, a strong opponent of Gutierrez' rule. The lawyers
also announced they would request the judge in the Gutierrez
case to drop the charges against him for lack of proof that
his statements abroad had undermined the security of the
state. Meanwhile, press reported that prosecutors were
formulating new charges against Gutierrez for a range of
crimes while in office, for presentation to the new Supreme
Court once it is conformed. For his part, Gutierrez said he
would not leave prison unless he was exonerated. Gutierrez
opponent Leon Febres Cordero claimed Gutierrez left Colombia
under threat from the FARC.

Palacio Calls for Reform
--------------


4. (SBU) On October 13, some Congressional leaders and
cabinet members discussed Gutierrez' possible return
informally, agreeing to consider declaring a political truce
over the President's reform agenda. President Palacio,
however, spurned the offer by publicly announcing that he
would propose a referendum calling a national constituent
assembly to consider political reforms. On October 17,
Palacio sent his assembly proposal directly to the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal, a move which some in Congress charged was
unconstitutional. Palacio justified the move under article
104 of the constitution, which allows the president to
convoke a referendum when, in his opinion, it deals with
issues of "transcendental importance" which do not reform the
constitution.


5. (U) Palacio's proposal consists of a one-question
referendum, proposed for December 18, which would ask the
public whether they authorize the convocation of a national
constituent assembly to restructure the Ecuadorian state
under a new constitution. It would be established in the
following manner: 100 members, elected proportionally by
province in the first trimester of 2006, including 50 party
representatives and 50 members of civil society, excluding
present government officials or anyone elected to government
posts within the last four years, and, notably, all dismissed
ex-presidents. The assembly would finish its deliberations
before regularly scheduled national elections in 2006.


6. (U) Reaction to Palacio's announcement was mixed. Social
groups who had supported the ouster of Gutierrez praised it
as fulfilling the reform mandate of the people. Independent
presidential candidate Leon Roldos, leading early
presidential polls with 30% support, came out in favor. So
did the fringe leftist MPD party, and the indigenous party
Pachakutik, with the proviso that the FTA with the U.S. be
put up for debate in an assembly.


7. (U) Meanwhile, president of Congress Wilfredo Lucero and
most political party leaders condemned the president's move,
including Democratic Left president Guillermo Landazuri and
Social Christian party leader Leon Febres Cordero, with
Landazuri lamenting Palacio's rejection of former Government
Minister Molestina's reform package and declaring that the
Congress would pass its own constitutional reforms. ID
congressional leader Jorge Sanchez told PolChief on October
17 that the ID would react to Palacio's proposal in congress
on October 18, but stopped short of threatening Palacio's
impeachment.
Comment
--------------


8. (C) By attempting an end run around large party leaders
and Congress, Palacio risks his own presidency, and is aware
of that risk. Acting Minister of Government Galo Chiriboga
stated as much, saying the president was willing to place his
own fate at the hands of the assembly. The Ambassador has
privately stressed to Palacio the risks of this gambit, but
his frustration with Congress and stubborn allegiance to what
he sees as the principles of the movement that brought him to
power has prevailed.


9. (C) The electoral tribunal is headed by Febres Cordero's
PSC and composed of representatives from seven political
parties. Of these, Pachakutik and MPD already support the
assembly, and another, the PRIAN of banana magnate Alvaro
Noboa, is wavering. Noboa is currently second in
presidential polling, at around 15% support, and a two-time
second place finisher. A constituent assembly would open the
possibility of calling early elections, which favors Noboa
and Roldos, the early front-runners (meanwhile, the PSC and
ID have not even announced candidates). A fourth vote in
favor could come from the Citizens New Country group
("Ciudadanos Nuevo Pais"),led by two-time presidential
candidate Freddy Ehlers. The PSC, ID and PRE solidly oppose
an assembly.


10. (C) To convince four members of the PSC-headed tribunal
to approve the referendum will probably require incentives
from the government or strong public support from civil
society. Thus far the public has been unmoved. Polls show
them focused more on economic than political questions, and
pro-reform street action has yet to appear. Gutierrez'
presence adds an unpredictable factor to the mix. Palacio's
insistence on a constituent assembly has provoked party
leaders, but Gutierrez' destabilizing presence has mitigated
their resentment of Palacio. Despite rumored internal
divisions, the military has not taken anti-government action.


Suggested Press Guidance on Constituent Assembly Proposal
-------------- --------------


11. (U) If asked for USG views on a constituent assembly, we
recommend:

-- repeating our commitment to help Ecuador strengthen
democratic institutions, but

-- declaring this to be an internal matter for Ecuadorians to
resolve, and

-- expressing the view that the Ecuadorian people deserve a
democratic system which benefits all.
JEWELL