AMBASSADOR MEETS GOVERNMENT MINISTER GANDARA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002060

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EC
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS GOVERNMENT MINISTER GANDARA

Classified By: PolChief Erik Hall, for reason 1.4 (b&d).


1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador paid a courtesy call on
Minister of Government Mauricio Gandara on September 1.
Gandara, a lightning rod for growing criticism of the Palacio
government, made light of the chorus of calls for his
impeachment. In a cordial and wide-ranging discussion,
Gandara blamed virtually all crime in Ecuador on Colombians,
expounded on military theory, promoted his own views on
political reform, and committed his ministry to fully apply
the new law against trafficking in persons (TIP). The
Ambassador differed with Gandara's analysis of the Colombian
conflict and offered collaboration against TIP. Though
rumors of his impending ouster are long-standing, we believe
Gandara's days as minister might finally be drawing to a
merciful end. End Summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador's call on Gandara was her first on a
minister since presenting her credentials on August 29. (The
Minister of Government position is first in protocol rank
among Cabinet members here.) She was accompanied by the DCM
and PolChief. Gandara was alone for most of the meeting, but
called in Vice Minister Fernando Acosta when the discussion
turned to TIP.

Colombia the Root of Ecuador's Problems
--------------


3. (C) Gandara, among the Cabinet's most virulent
nationalists, opened with a rant against Colombia.
"Virtually all modern crimes committed here involve
Colombians," he said. Fully 55% of residents of Lago Agrio
(site of the most violent demonstrations during the
provincial strike in Sucumbios province) are of Colombian
origin. There was definitely Colombian involvement in oil
country strikes, although he was vague about what form that
involvement took. A member of the prefect of Orellana's
strike negotiating team was a Colombian missionary, he
claimed.


4. (C) VM Acosta later offered a more reasoned analysis of
recent provincial and local strike activity. The strikes in
Manabi, Orellana and Sucumbios reflect the divide between
provinces with a culture of local tax-raising (Quito,
Guayaquil, Cuenca, Loja, Manta) and those accustomed to
depending only on central government handouts. This pattern
exists even within provinces. Portoviejo, site of the first
of the series of strikes, lies just 40 km from
entrepreneurial (and strike-free) Manta.


5. (C) Burnishing his credentials as a military school grad,
Gandara said the Colombian military should take fixed
positions along the Ecuadorian border and push the FARC
inward. His corollary was that the Colombia conflict is not
winnable militarily. To do so would take an operational
force advantage of 10-1, which the government does not have
over the 40,000 guerrillas. Efforts to stem the flow of
drugs had not raised the price of cocaine on the street in
the U.S. The Ambassador expressed the USG view that the GOC
is making steady progress recovering territory previously
held by terrorist groups. "Yes, at our expense," he
exclaimed.

Politics: My Way
--------------


6. (C) Gandara made light of ongoing impeachment attempts in
Congress against him. "I check with my staff every morning
how many new petitions came in over night." (Note: The
Democratic Left (ID) party recently joined the fringe-leftist
Popular Democracy Movement (MPD) in supporting a non-binding
impeachment process in response to Gandara's handing of the
recent strikes. The Social Christian party (PSC) is publicly
considering doing the same, but for different reasons.)


7. (C) Turning to pending political reforms, Gandara said he
had been against Vice President Serrano's public consultation
process "from the start." The referendum should be moved
forward to the end of September, to respond to peoples
demands for change. What is most urgently needed, he said,
is an immediate return to bicameralism, to create a check on
unconstitutional moves by a single house of Congress. A
reduction of Congress' time in session is also needed, to
limit its capacity for damage. He added a final reform he
plans to suggest to the president: a constitutional change
to strip any striking government official of his/her official
responsibilities. If voted down by the people, he vowed to
leave the government, joking that "the last one leaving turns
out the lights."

Committed to Fighting TIP
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador emphasized the importance of progress
in the fight against TIP, with which Gandara agreed. Now
that we have a new law to enforce, he said, "we must apply it
fully." VM Acosta said the GOE was already applying the law
in a landmark TIP case in Ambato; cited a recent Quito
municipality initiative against child prostitution; lauded
GOE internal coordination and help from the American Bar
Association, including an impending airport poster campaign
against sexual tourism; and said the First Lady's office will
soon launch a nationwide anti-TIP public education campaign.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The hyper-nationalist and sometimes prickly Gandara
was clearly eager to impress and welcome the Ambassador.
Boasting about his personal fitness, he even invited the
Ambassador to join him on long walks up Pichincha volcano
once she became accustomed to the altitude. However, events
may intervene to thwart this invitation. Presidential
sibling Gustavo Palacio told the DCM on September 1 that
although he felt mounting criticism of Gandara was largely
undeserved, he had recently recommended that his brother
replace Gandara. We agree with brother Palacio's view that
Gandara has become a liability.
JEWELL