GOE ATTEMPTS TO GET PAST COURT ISSUE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000156

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
SUBJECT: GOE ATTEMPTS TO GET PAST COURT ISSUE



1. (SBU) Summary: Supported by a pro-government march of
10,000, President Gutierrez introduced his referendum
proposals in Congress on January 21. The reforms include a
method to select a new Supreme Court and other judicial
institutions. Already sensing opposition to his referendum
from within his alliance, Gutierrez has signaled that should
Congress block the referendum, he would try to bypass that
institution. Gutierrez used his January 14 state of the
nation speech to cite his government's accomplishments and
reaffirm his government's commitment to propose a neutral
method to replace current judicial institutions. He then
left for New York, where he reportedly convinced financiers
to approve new and cheaper lending for Ecuador.


2. (SBU) The political opposition, perhaps sensing citizen
disinterest in the court issue, is attempting to mobilize
street protests around other issues. Guayaquil mayor Jaime
Nebot is planning a citizen's march on local issues for
January 26; the indigenous leadership has signaled it will
focus any call for protests on opposing an FTA with the U.S.
Despite support from a cross section of civil society,
opponents of the new Supreme Court have not been able to
mobilize significant numbers to oppose it. Instead, they
have organized media-grabbing events, including a "honk to
reject the justices" event outside the court, and, on January
20, a "funeral march for the constitution," which attracted
2,000. Former VP and perennial presidential candidate Leon
Roldos is seeking one million signatures for a rival
referendum. Perhaps acceding to these pressures, the new
Supreme Court president resigned on December 13. End Summary.

Gutierrez Declares Victory and Departs for NYC
-------------- -


3. (U) In his January 14 annual state of the nation address,
President Gutierrez claimed credit for a long list of
advances, grouped by the following themes:

-- fight against corruption and impunity
-- fight against poverty and unemployment
-- increased productivity and competitiveness
-- increased security (social, judicial, environmental, and
citizen)
-- pragmatic foreign policy and political reform


4. (U) Gutierrez claimed credit for record low inflation
rates in 2004, the highest GNP growth rate in the region, and
the government's fiscal discipline and refusal to raise basic
commodity prices. Gutierrez singled out his government's
belief that an FTA with the U.S. would bring benefits for all
Ecuadorians, and touted his government's good relations with
the U.S., Peru and Colombia. He also acknowledged USG
support on a number of fronts (including northern border
development projects). The message was roundly applauded and
frequently interrupted with pro-government chants. The
government had seeded the auditorium with Gutierrez
supporters.

Referendum Already In Trouble?
--------------


5. (SBU) Gutierrez traveled to New York on January 15 to
meet with bankers and creditors. From a press conference
there, Gutierrez signaled that he knows his referendum may be
in trouble in Congress. Should Congress fail to act on his
proposal quickly, he said, the government would consider
employing a "Plan B" to reform the courts. This unspecified
alternative plan would not require Congressional approval.
Upon his return to Ecuador, Gutierrez submitted his
eight-question referendum proposal to Congress, and was
supported by a staged pro-government march of 10,000,
according to police sources.

Dueling Marches
--------------


6. (SBU) Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot (PSC) is organizing a
"pro-security" march for January 26, to protest the central
government's disallowance of municipal hiring of private
security guards and other local issues. PSC leader Leon
Febres-Cordero will reportedly not participate. The
Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE) has vowed to organize its
own rival march for the same date and time. Authorities seek
to separate the two to prevent conflict. Meanwhile, in a fit
of pique over a perceived slight from the president, VP
Alfredo Palacio told the press on January 13 that he might
organize his own (as yet unscheduled) anti-government march.
The VP's anti-government ruminations were played up by the
media.


7. (SBU) Indigenous leaders are sending mixed signals on
whether they will mobilize to challenge or protest the court
issue. CONAIE President Luis Macas has alternately called
for other social groups to join CONAIE in forming a "parallel
government," and signaled that CONAIE would reserve efforts
to mobilize its base for higher priority issues (i.e.
opposing an FTA with the U.S.). Pachakutik congressional
leader Carlos Gonzalez told PolOffs on January 13 that no
anti-government protests were currently planned, and that the
FTA remained the indigenous movement's highest priority.
Civil Society Efforts Start Small
--------------


8. (SBU) Several notable efforts have been launched by civil
society to protest Congress' action on the courts, but these
protests have not coalesced around a unified response. The
Episcopal Conference of Bishops quickly and publicly rejected
Congress' move to replace the Supreme Court and has expressed
public support for a referendum on the subject. An umbrella
group calling itself the Civic Convergence for Democracy is
protesting the permanence of the new court by holding
attention-grabbing events for the media, including a "honk
for new justices" event on January 19 and a "funeral for the
constitution" march on January 20. Former Vice President
Leon Roldos, meanwhile, has proposed his own referendum on
the court and other unrelated issues, and hopes to collect a
million signatures to force its acceptance by election
authorities. Civic Convergence members have privately
criticized Roldos' effort, pointing out that the constitution
prohibits private citizens (but not the government) from
raising constitutional issues by referendum.

Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) Legal arguments against Congress' December
replacement of the Supreme Court coming from civil society
groups are gaining coherence and provoking a defensive
reaction from the government, but public protest has been
limited. The government's proposal to put the issue to a
referendum seems more a diversion than a realistic option.


10. (SBU) The political opposition has been hamstrung in
seeking to capitalize on this issue by its thoroughly
discredited manipulation of the ousted court. Nebot's march
could shift the political momentum, but by changing the
subject of the march to local issues, has lowered the
political stakes. A strong PRE turnout could cancel
anti-government momentum further. The VP's posturing is
ludicrous (but not unprecedented) and has provoked little
public support. Despite lack of consensus here on how to
resolve this constitutional issue, we will continue to engage
with Congress, civil society and the GoE to encourage efforts
to strengthen judicial independence.
Chacon