VP READY TO DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 001274

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: VP READY TO DIALOGUE


Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reasons 1.4 (b & d)


1. (C) Summary: Vice President Alejandro Serrano Aguilar
discussed his role as coordinator of national dialogue with
the Ambassador, including plans for the upcoming public
dialogue process and referendum that the GOE is planning to
hold by December 11. Serrano also discussed his past
experience as Mayor of Cuenca, and the growth and progress
occurring now in many of Ecuador's major cities. Overall we
were impressed with the courtly but accessible Serrano. As
the dialogue process moves toward formulation of referendum
questions, we hope Serrano will be a force for moderation.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) On June 3, Serrano met with the Ambassador and
PolChief alone in his office at our request. At the end of
the meeting, he introduced his wife and daughter for
photographs with the Ambassador. He has a son living in
Boston.

Process Leading to Referendum Still Vague
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3. (C) At President Palacio's request, Vice President
Serrano will lead the dialogue process in preparation for the
referendum that the GOE plans to hold in December. The first
phase will consist of a nation-wide dialogue in which the
government will listen to citizen concerns and suggestions
for political reform. Serrano admitted the GOE had not yet
settled on a specific strategy for this, but said the GOE
would be flexible when considering format. "Nothing has been
ruled out," he emphasized when discussing formats for citizen
input. The issues raised during the dialogue process would
later be synthesized into four or five questions to be
addressed in a referendum on December 11.


4. (C) Asked why December 11, Serrano explained that it was
a carefully considered date. First, the referendum should
occur before the holiday season begins in late December, and
before the upcoming electoral year begins in January. The
idea is to keep the referendum separate from the electoral
issues and campaigning that will draw public attention
beginning in January of 2006. December 11 also immediately
follows the Quito festivities, reducing political fervor in
the contentious capital. The greatest political tension in
the country is in Quito, he said, but since the majority of
the population does not reside in the capital, the GOE must
carefully balance the interests of the Quito electorate with
those of the rest of the nation.


5. (C) The Ambassador warned Serrano that the dialogue
process would raise public expectations for real change.
Because the Vice President is neither seeking re-election nor
affiliated with any particular party, he is in a unique
position to consider political reform to serve national
interest. Dialogue is clearly needed and a referendum could
help focus reform debate--but the GOE must carefully consider
which issues are put to the people. Serrano agreed, saying
any referendum must be limited to four to five key questions.


VP Upbeat on Economy, Youth
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6. (C) To signal USG economic concerns, the Ambassador
mentioned her experience with hyper-inflation in Argentina in
the 1980s. Serrano talked about his experience with the
difficulties of living with high inflation, and said that the
younger generation is very lucky to not have that problem
now. The Ambassador commented that based on a recent meeting
with a group of Ecuadorian students, she found this younger
generation to be very optimistic about Ecuador's future. The
conversation then turned to the generation gap in Ecuador
right now, and Serrano noted that a whole generation aged
25-40 seem to have opted out of politics.


7. (SBU) The Ambassador complimented the growth and progress
occurring in Ecuador's cities. Serrano said he was a
committed "municipalista," citing his experiences as Mayor of
Cuenca in the 1970's, a city the Ambassador praised for its
work ethic and governance. Serrano is well-known for
building the main soccer stadium in Cuenca, which is named
for him. He said he would need to build on that reputation
to increase his effectiveness as Vice President. Serrano
said that a highlight of his mayorship had been an
Embassy-sponsored tour of several US cities. He also proudly
mentioned a bicentennial medal he received from the Embassy
as mayor.

Comment
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8. (C) We left hopeful that the Vice President will be a
moderating force in the Cabinet. We will maintain close
contact with the VP and his staff to monitor the dialogue
process, which will likely involve US interests.
Kenney