ECUADOR: DEMOCRATIC DOCTOR IN THE HOUSE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 QUITO 001100

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: DEMOCRATIC DOCTOR IN THE HOUSE?

REF: QUITO 1058

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i., Arnold A. Chacon, for reasons 1.
4 (b&d).


1. (C) Summary: The political scene is coming alive with
voices, new and old, providing different prescriptions for
Ecuador's democratic ills. Congress on May 11 ejected four
more of its members, tossing due process to the wind in the
face of threatened protests on May 12. As the first test of
popular sentiment and activism since ex-president Gutierrez
was summarily dismissed by Congress on April 20 the May 12
protest proved underwhelming, with media reporting only 1,000
taking to the streets. By all accounts these protesters
comprise an extremist subset of those who demanded Gutierrez'
ouster. Their demands are anti-democratic and
hyper-nationalistic: Congress should be dissolved; an FTA
with the US rejected, US use of an air base in Manta denied,
and any involvement with Plan Colombia scrapped. The GOE,
though intimidated and weak, is unlikely to crumble in the
face of this opening protest salvo. Without further progress
toward political reform, however, the protests could grow. A
continuing OAS role could help keep reforms on track. End
Summary.

Congress Intimidated by Protests
--------------


2. (SBU) In the face of new protests threatened for the
evening of May 12 (SepTel),Congress has taken several recent
actions to convey a new sense of purpose. On May 11, it
voted to expel four of its members accused of participating
in a late-night binge/orgy while in Lima for trade talks
(RefTel). In doing so, it ignored procedural rules, citing
national urgency. The four deputies will be replaced by
their alternates. Congress also announced a new process to
dismiss 10 other deputies on various ethics charges (all of
whom collaborated with pro-Gutierrez forces). On May 11 and
12, Congress debated but did not vote on President Palacio's
partial veto of the Supreme Court bill. PSC deputy Luis
Fernando Torres proposed that Congress vote separately on the
issue of reducing the size of the court from 31 to 16
magistrates, signaling a possible override effort on that
point alone. Torres told PolOffs on May 10 he thought the
veto would ultimately be approved. On other pending
congressional issues, he said TIP and money-laundering
legislation would continue to move through Congress. He also
speculated that the Palacio government would never be strong
enough to sign an FTA with the U.S.

Conspiracy Theories Validated
--------------


3. (C) Torres told PolOffs that party leader Leon Febres
Cordero had been plotting ex-president Gutierrez' downfall
ever since his failed impeachment attempt in November.
Torres disagreed that Gutierrez was brought down in a
legislative coup, claiming that Congress' decision to dismiss
Gutierrez came after the military high command decided to
withdraw its support from Gutierrez' government. That
decision was taken early on April 20, he claimed. According
to Torres, members of the rightist National Democratic
Alliance (ADN) met with Congressional leaders including
Torres on April 19, urging Gutierrez' dismissal. The ADN is
an ad-hoc pressure group which then included Government
Minister Gandara and Energy Minister Cordovez. It was
created to bring together various groups which sought the
removal of Gutierrez after Quito Mayor Paco Moncayo had
rejected their tactics and expelled them from the Assembly of
Quito. Moncayo colorfully defended his action to us,
labeling the ADN group as "Fascist coup-plotters"
("golpistas").


4. (C) In addition to meeting with Congress, according to
Torres, the ADN had extensive contact with then-Vice
President Palacio, who rewarded several of their leaders with
Cabinet positions after taking office. Most prominent were
the appointments of Government Minister Mauricio Gandara and
Energy Minister Fausto Cordovez.


5. (C) In a public address on May 11, former president
Oswaldo Hurtado agreed that conspiracy was one of several
factors contributing to the collapse of the Gutierrez
government, including:

-- Congressional disrespect for the constitution;
-- the decision of the military high command, at the request
of opposition political leaders, to withdraw their support
for the government ("the dagger that ended the bullfight");
-- the circle around Vice President Palacio conspiring to
take power;
-- Gutierrez' own combative and unconstitutional actions; and,
-- Latent racism against Gutierrez' humble mestizo roots.
Presidential Prescriptions Vary
--------------


6. (C) In addition to positions in his government, President
Palacio has offered other palliatives to demanding "forajido"
critics. On May 10, Palacio assigned Vice President Serrano
to organize national roundtable discussions intended to
generate ideas for possible inclusion in a future national
referendum, in collaboration with civil society leaders from
the forajido movement. In doing so, he reportedly agreed to
discuss possible inclusion in such a referendum of a call for
a constituent assembly (which would automatically dissolve
congress and his government).


7. (U) Former president Hurtado, for his part, lamented the
damage done to Ecuador's international reputation and
expressed concern about the populist tone of the Palacio
government's economic policies. He expressed hope that
Ecuadorians would strengthen Ecuador's democratic
institutions, rather than seek undemocratic alternatives.
Election reforms should strengthen larger parties by reducing
proportional representation. Political parties must be
purged from their absolute control over the Supreme Electoral
Tribunal. (On May 5, Congress swore in a new Supreme
Electoral Tribunal, shifting the political balance there by
replacing Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party representative
with one from Pachakutik, and naming the PSC representative
as president.) Hurtado also expressed hope that "new
political blood" represented by Quito's more "virtuous"
protest leaders, would enter electoral politics to pursue
their reform agenda.


8. (C) Quito Mayor and presidential aspirant Paco Moncayo
seemed downbeat in a meeting on May 9. Moncayo, who has kept
a low public profile since publicly calling on the police and
military to support anti-Gutierrez protests, referred to the
"tiresome" grind of politics, and only perked up when
defending his own virtues (not corrupt, not beholden, etc.).
Moncayo blamed Gutierrez for being a victim of
"self-inflicted wounds." Were it not for Gutierrez' flagrant
violations of the constitution, there was "no way he should
have fallen," having survived past the halfway mark. Moncayo
also blamed Gutierrez for politicizing the military, at heavy
cost. "It will take the military 20 years to recover the
prestige it enjoyed when I left it," he said. About his own
role in Gutierrez' downfall, Moncayo chose to emphasize his
efforts to restrain radical elements in the Quito Assembly.
He claimed not to be tarnished by his actions; as of last
week, private polls showed no dip in his popularity (which
remained at 80%, he claimed).


9. (C) Like Hurtado, Moncayo expressed hope that the Palacio
government would focus on what is necessary to strengthen
democracy during its abbreviated term. A constituent
assembly would be uncontrollable and silly, especially if
politicians were barred, as some would have it. A new
constitution would not be the answer. Instead, political
reforms are desperately needed to make parties more
accountable and constrain the influence of powerful elites.
Those reforms should include strengthening judicial
independence (he favors the presidential veto),electoral law
and political party reforms to increase transparency, and
decentralization. Moncayo said he was in touch with Palacio
and would meet with MinGov Gandara shortly, to emphasize
these points.


11. (C) Vinicio Baquero, president of the
government-supported National Higher Education Council
(CONESUP),rejected the media's characterization of the ADN
as a political group, saying the membership is diverse (in
addition to CONESUP it includes the major labor union
federation, and several citizens groups). ADN provides a
forum to join forces to press the government for overdue
reforms. With Gutierrez now gone, the ADN and other
like-minded "forajidos" seek to maintain popular pressure on
the government to implement political reforms. These reforms
could include a change in the executive/legislative branch
relationship through the creation of a prime ministership
responsible to Congress. Baquero said the May 12 protests
outside Congress, would "take the pulse" of citizen pressure
for more structural change. Other academic leaders of the
anti-Gutierrez protest movement have told us they will not
support any protests seeking to dissolve Congress.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) With the new government in place but struggling for
focus, political speculation and debate is noticeably
shifting from who comprises the new government toward what
kind of democratic reform is necessary. As always, there is
no shortage of prescriptions. Only the most extreme are
calling for a new constitution and early elections. To
protect itself, the GOE is offering a national dialogue and
referendum to put priority issues to the people. Acutely
sensing its own vulnerability, Congress is likely to
facilitate the referendum process. A positive outcome would
include reforms which support stability by increasing
government accountability. A worst-case scenario for USG
interests would be a GOE sell-out to populist and nationalist
impulses. An ongoing OAS role could help tip the balance in
favor of responsible reform by providing political cover for
the Palacio government to do the right thing.
CHACON