QUEBEC OPPOSITION LEADER BERNARD LANDRY STEPS DOWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUEBEC 000091

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/6/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV CA
SUBJECT: QUEBEC OPPOSITION LEADER BERNARD LANDRY STEPS DOWN

REF: QUEBEC 79

CLASSIFIED BY: Abigail Friedman, Consul General, Quebec City,
State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)


1. (C) Summary: Falling short of his self-imposed target of 80
percent in a June 4 vote of confidence at the Parti Quebecois
convention, PQ leader Bernard Landry announced to a stunned
audience his immediate retirement from political life. Saying
he needed "solid, unequivocal, massive" support from his troops
to lead the PQ back into power and Quebec to independence,
Landry made clear that the 76.2 percent support he received fell
far short of the mark. After a brief period of consternation
and disarray, the PQ convention was back in session the
following day. (Policy decisions taken at the convention will
be reported septel.) PQ executives will meet June 7 to work out
the timing and procedures for electing a successor. In the
interim, PQ Executive Council President Monique Richard will
preside over the PQ, while the PQ caucus in the Quebec National
Assembly will appoint a temporary head of the opposition on June

6. Speculation now turns to who will succeed Landry. The bar
is set high, as the party wants its next leader both to bring
the PQ back into power and to lead Quebec to independence via a
third referendum. Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe's name
currently tops the list of possible candidates, but it is
unclear he is ready at this time to make the jump from federal
to provincial politics. Much will depend upon the date set for
the next leadership race. Premier Charest, whose popular
support is languishing now at a low of 20 percent, has the most
to gain from a PQ in limbo, and the most to fear should Duceppe
come to lead the opposition in Quebec. End summary.


2. (U) A rousing speech by Gilles Duceppe in support of Landry
at the opening of the convention, and an earlier decision by
several contenders to drop their challenge against him, were not
enough for former Premier Landry to reach the target of 80
percent support that he hoped to get in the June 4 vote of
confidence. His score of 76.2 percent was lower than any of the
other three PQ votes of confidence held up to now, and may have
been even lower in actual fact given that a number of delegates
abstained. (Prior PQ votes of confidence were as follows:
Jacques Parizeau, 1991, 92 %; Lucien Bouchard, 1996, 76.7 % and
2000, 90.9 %.)


3. (SBU) Several reasons are being put forth to explain the
results: (1) Landry was defeated by the PQ "hard core" or
radical sovereigntists (who believe the PQ, once in power,
should immediately take acts toward independence and seek a
referendum only after the fact - the reverse of Landry's
position); (2) Although his two competitors, Pauline Marois and
Francois Legault, chose not to stand against him, some of their
supporters refused to follow and voted against Landry; (3) a La
Presse poll published the day of the confidence vote showed that
30 percent of the Quebec public would prefer Duceppe as head of
the PQ, compared to 19 percent for Landry; and finally, (4)
Landry's own poor performance the night before, opening the
conference with a painfully lackluster, pedantic speech that
compared unfavorably with dynamic stump speeches by the youthful
Andre Boisclair and by Gilles Duceppe.

Reactions
--------------


4. (U) Party delegates seemed ready to accept Landry after the
result of the vote of confidence and in fact were in mid-clap
when Landry took the microphone to announce that, from here on
out, he would be a simple militant in the PQ. To lead the party
and meet the PQ's objectives, he needed "solid, unequivocal,
massive support." The support he received, he said, left "too
great a concern," and "the possibility of speculation" that
would harm the party and harm his leadership. Amid shouts of
"No! no!" he announced that he was stepping down as head of the
PQ; as head of the official opposition in the Quebec National
Assembly; and as member of the National Assembly from Vercheres.
Landry then left the convention, dined alone with his family
and a few close aides, and did not return Sunday for the last
day of the convention.


5. (U) Beyond the incredulous reaction from party militants,
others also expressed surprise at the news. Bloc Quebecois
leader Gilles Duceppe, who the night before had introduced
Landry at the convention and declared him to be the man of the
hour to bring Quebec toward independence, issued a statement
reiterating this position, and asking Landry to reconsider his
decision. Duceppe's entourage told the media that Duceppe was
"extremely surprised." Premier Charest, on an official visit to
Haiti, conveyed to the media his respect for Bernard Landry and
added that he was both "surprised and touched." PM Martin
conveyed his best wishes and recognized Landry's devotion "even
if he does not at all share his vision of the future of Quebec."


Next Steps
--------------


6. (U) The PQ has only once before in its history held a
leadership race. (In that election, in 1985, seven candidates
ran for the leadership of the party.) Not all of the procedures
- including the timing -- of an election are set out in the
party's by-laws, according to former Executive Council chair
Marie Malavoie. For this reason, the Executive Council will
meet on June 7 to begin to work out the ground rules for a
leadership race. One rule that is agreed is that all 75,000
members of the PQ (as opposed to the roughly one thousand five
hundred delegates who attended the June 3-5 convention) are
allowed to vote. Organizing such a vote is expected to take
time and several PQ members speculated to CG that an election
would not take place before this fall.


7. (U) In the interim, the PQ will have two "heads" - the
leader of the parliamentary opposition and the "President" of
the party. As for the former, on June 6, the PQ caucus of the
National Assembly will choose someone to lead the official
opposition for the remaining two weeks that the National
Assembly is in session. Current speculation is that this
position will be held either by Louise Harel or Diane Lemieux.
On the latter, newly elected Executive Council head Monique
Richard will hold the PQ Presidency. (One of the amendments to
the PQ by-laws enacted during the current convention, prior to
Landry's resignation, changed the title of the leader of the
Party (i.e., Bernard Landry) to "chief," while the head of the
Executive Council became "President." At this stage, we
understand that there will not be another person appointed as
interim "chief" to replace Landry.

Who's Next?
--------------


8. (U) Landry had scarcely left the convention center when
speculation began to spread as to who might succeed Landry.
Pauline Marois, who called for a leadership election months ago,
was on the air that very night saying she would run. Francois
Legault, who is also considered a candidate, told the media it
was too soon for him to make a decision. Andre Boisclair, the
"Young Prince" of the PQ, is also on the pundits' list. (But
many consider him too young and prefer that he hold off for now.
Boisclair himself seems to agree: he spent the past year at the
Kennedy School of Government, burnishing his academic
credentials, and is now off to Toronto for a job at MacKenzie.)


9. (C) Topping the list of possible successors is Bloc Quebecois
leader Gilles Duceppe, who is seen as one of the few
sovereigntists with the gravitas to stand against Charest. Many
here expect the pressure on him will be intense to make the jump
from federal to provincial politics. But with a federal
election on the horizon, he may be reluctant to do so. It is
also worth noting that support for Duceppe within the PQ is
mixed. In hallway conversations with the CG during the
convention, many PQ militants were quick to criticize Duceppe.
He was faulted for being "too authoritarian," "for not having
earned his stripes as a PQ militant," and for "not really
understanding what is dear to Quebeckers."

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Crisis in the PQ is nothing new. As one delegate, a
former PQ minister, put it to CG, "This party lives from crisis
to crisis." What is noteworthy is the particular juncture at
which the present PQ leadership "crisis" is taking place. Many
in the PQ are convinced that the time is ripe for the PQ to come
back into power and lead Quebec toward another independence
referendum. They point to record-low popular support for the
Charest government (only 20 percent according to a CROP-La
Presse poll last week) and majority (53 percent) support for
sovereignty according to that same poll. There is a minority
government in Ottawa and an unpopular pro-federation government
in Quebec. As Duceppe hammered to convention delegates, "on est
prhs" meaning not "we are ready" but "we are near."


11. (C) This sense of urgency within the PQ is one reason why
Duceppe is likely to be under great pressure to lead the party
in advance of the next Provincial election. But Duceppe will
have to weigh the risks - not only of leaving the scene in
Ottawa, but in seeking the leadership of a party which is deeply
divided into factions that have been the undoing of every leader
it has had since its creation. No one will watch this more
closely than Premier Jean Charest, who has the most to gain from
a PQ in disarray, and the most to fear should a powerful
opposition figure appear on the scene to replace Landry.


FRIEDMAN