HARPER FACES STEEP UPHILL BATTLE IN QUEBEC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUEBEC 000035

SIPDIS

WHA/CAN FOR TERRY BREESE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR CA
SUBJECT: HARPER FACES STEEP UPHILL BATTLE IN QUEBEC

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED


1. (SBU) Summary: In the fall of 2003, the federal Canadian
Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties merged and Stephen
Harper beat out Stockwell Day for the new Conservative Party
leadership. In the federal election following that merger the
Conservatives failed to elect anyone in Quebec province.
Today, Harper is desperate to pick up seats in Quebec but his
chances are slim at the moment. Political pundits tell us that
Harper would need to win at least 10 seats in Quebec to win
nationally. Hence, it is no coincidence that the party's first
national convention is being held in Montreal, March 17-19. As
the Quebec Tories convene in Montreal, Harper is still
struggling to gain support in French-speaking Canada, where
Conservative Party values are not widely shared. End summary.


2. In 1984, no one would have predicted the Brian Mulroney wave
that swept Quebec in which the Tories won 55 of a total 75
seats. Harper is asking Quebecers to remember the "beau risque"
proposed by PQ premier Rene Levesque at that time, which helped
Brian Mulroney's Conservatives defeat the federal Liberals.
(Levesque urged Quebecers to vote for the Conservatives in the
hopes of negotiating a new constitutional deal.) So far,
however, Stephen Harper and his party have so far been unable to
establish any strong footing in Quebec province.


3. (SBU) CG and Pol/Econ Asst recently had lunch with Harper's
lieutenant for Quebec, Josee Verner. Verner ran and lost in the
Quebec City riding of Louis St-Laurent in June 2004 but managed
to collect the highest level of support in the province with 31%
of the votes in her riding, behind the Bloc candidate Bernard
Cleary. (The average support for conservative candidates in
the other provincial ridings was only 8%.) Although Verner did
not win her constituency, Harper took the unusual step of naming
her to his shadow cabinet as his Quebec lieutenant and chair of
the Quebec caucus. (Bio note: Josee Verner is a native of
Quebec City, is married, and has three children. Verner worked
for Quebec Liberal Premier Robert Bourassa from 1986-1992 and
campaigned for the right-of-center Action Democratique de Quebec
(ADQ) party in the last provincial campaign. End note.)


4. (SBU) Josee Verner told us her party has everything to win
and nothing to lose in Quebec. They are vigorously building
support here and Quebec is the party's number one priority. She
is the face and look of the party in the province and her job,
she said, is to plant roots. The party has been increasingly
present over the past months and Harper has come to Quebec on
numerous occasions since the June election. Verner confidently
predicted that the Tories would form the next government.


5. (SBU) The politics, she pointed out, are simple. Outraged
by the corruption of the federal Liberals, Quebecers decided to
vote for the Bloc Quebecois. However, by electing 54 Bloc MPs,
voters helped the Liberals return to power. The Bloc Quebecois
picked up the maximum number of seats last year and can only
lose constituencies now. Paul Martin, she said, has proven to
be a major disappointment to voters and the Gomery Commission
has disclosed the corruption of the previous Chretien
government. Comparatively, Tory leader Stephen Harper's strong
points are honesty, integrity and transparency; he is squeaky
clean, she said. The Conservatives are working very hard on the
ground and they are ready organizationally and financially for
an election, she assured us.


6. (SBU) Others we spoke with agree that the Conservatives
need to win in Quebec, but are skeptical that this can be done
with Harper at the helm. Michel Rivard, another Conservative
party organizer here, told us the Conservatives would need to
win ten seats in Quebec to win nationally. But Rivard believes
Harper's focus on moral conservatism, especially gay marriage,
is losing him support in Quebec. He, like other conservatives
in Quebec, believe that there will need to be a Conservative
party leadership change before Quebecers vote conservative in
significant numbers.


7. (SBU) Separately, the Ambassador and CG met with ADQ leader
Mario Dumont. (Dumont's party is the provincial equivalent of
Harper's Conservative Party and many of Harper's organizers in
Quebec, including Verner, are also local ADQ party organizers.)
Dumont also felt that the chances of the Conservatives under
Harper in Quebec are slim. Dumont believes that had Bernard
Lord assumed the leadership of the Conservative Party, the
entire political picture would be different for the
Conservatives in Quebec. With Harper, the challenge of the
Conservatives in Quebec is simply to exist. Harper represents
moral conservatism which is unpopular in Quebec. Dumont's
bottom line: Harper is not the right candidate to win votes in
Quebec.


8. (SBU) Comment: Despite Verner's optimism, recent polls
show no clear trend in Quebec voting intentions favoring Harper
and his party. Harper's high-profile stance opposing gay
marriage left many Quebec Tory organizers scrambling to explain
their party's moral conservatism. Verner tried to limit the
damage by highlighting Harper's decision to allow Conservative
MPs (and supporters) to vote their conscience on the matter.
But we believe she has not succeeded in overcoming what is now
seen in Quebec as the Conservative Party's defining
characteristic: moral conservatism. Finally, Harper's efforts
to overhaul his Quebec organization by bringing in new faces,
including Verner, has triggered infighting which is likely to
surface at the Party congress this weekend.