FORMER PQ HEAD LANDRY SUMS UP HIS SUCCESSOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUEBEC 000190

SIPDIS

WHA/CAN FOR TERRY BREESE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: FORMER PQ HEAD LANDRY SUMS UP HIS SUCCESSOR


CLASSIFIED BY: Abigail Friedman, Consul General, Quebec City,
State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (c) Summary: In a Nov. 16 breakfast with CG, former PQ
leader and Quebec Premier Bernard Landry expressed support for
newly elected PQ leader Andre Boisclair. He characterized the
controversy of Boisclair's past cocaine use as "over and done
with," but warned that if any new revelation of criminal
wrongdoing surfaces, Boisclair's political career will be over.
Landry suggested Boisclair's commitment to sovereignty is not
deeply felt, but merely a condition that Boisclair must accept
in order to run the party. Boisclair will follow the policy
course set out by the PQ in its platform ratified last spring.
On views of the U.S., Landry felt that Boisclair shares
Quebeckers' fondness for Americans but objects to a range of
current U.S. policies, including Iraq. End summary.


2. (SBU) Former Premier Bernard Landry shared his assessment of
the newly-elected Boisclair at the CG's residence the morning
after the announcement of PQ election results. (Comment: Since
his resignation as head of the PQ last June, Landry has
positioned himself as the elder statesman of the PQ and
behind-the-scenes mentor to Boisclair. Quebec rumors are that,
should Boisclair be undone by his cocaine past or other
political difficulties, Landry would likely be called back to
restore order in the party. End comment.) French CG Alabrune
and TDY Econ/Pol officer Anne Coleman also attended the
breakfast.

Consolidating His Hold on the Party
--------------


3. (SBU) Landry believes Boisclair's first task is to mend
fences within the party after the bitter leadership race.
Boisclair's task of unifying the party is made easier by the
election timetable, as a provincial election is likely within
the next two years. With that election on the horizon, Landry
believes PQ members will not have the luxury of extensive
internecine warfare. Boisclair's call for party unity will be
persuasive, but he will have a tougher time winning over the
wider Quebec public, suggested Landry. Boisclair is declining
the opportunity (offered by his PLQ opponents) to run
uncontested for a seat in the National Assembly so that he has
the freedom to travel the province and weigh in on issues at a
time and place of his own choosing. To shore up his image,
Landry said Boisclair will need to stick close to popular Bloc
Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe. Boisclair needs to move public
concern away from his past wrongdoings, and onto the future of
the PQ itself and Quebec more generally. Landry characterized
the controversy over Boisclair's past use of cocaine as "over
and done with." But he was categorical that if any single new
revelation of criminal wrongdoing surfaces, Boisclair's
political career will be over. Landry affirmed his confidence
in Boisclair, pointing out that although many rumors are
circulating, no proof of other wrongdoing has been found.

Boisclair's Thin Sovereigntist Credentials
--------------


4. (C) Landry pointed out that Boisclair will not be making new
PQ policy, as he must carry out the policies ratified by PQ
members during last spring's party congress. On the question of
sovereignty, Boisclair stuck close to the PQ platform stating
that he will seek a referendum "as soon as possible" after a PQ
provincial election victory. Asked by Pol/Econ officer how deep
Boisclair's commitment to sovereignty runs, Landry smiled,
paused, and responded, "He knows that if he wants to be the head
of the Parti Quebecois, he has to support sovereignty."

PQ Election Prospects Uncertain Under Boisclair
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) According to Landry, with the advent of Boisclair, the
"revolutionary" period of the PQ is over. But Boisclair will
need the support of that "revolutionary" generation (including
people like Landry) to bring Quebec to independence. Landry
speculated that it is not just the cocaine issue that will be
problematic for Boisclair but that Boisclair's open
homosexuality will make it difficult for him to win popularity
among Quebec's Latin American and African immigrants. Although
Boisclair "does not have the same connections" to Quebec's
different immigrant communities, Landry himself would help bring
out the immigrant vote during an election campaign.

Boisclair is anti-Iraq war~ but not anti-U.S.
--------------


6. (U) During the course of the PQ party leadership debate,
Boisclair was asked who his favorite political figure was, to
which he answered French PM Dominique de Villepin, because of
Villepin's "courageous" stance at the U.N. on the war in Iraq.
CG asked Landry what he thought Boisclair intended to show by
this answer. Landry said that Boisclair's answer should not be
taken as an indication that he is anti-American, but rather that
he is anti-Iraq war, as is the majority of Quebec.
Comment: Forging an inter-generational alliance in the PQ
-------------- --------------


7. (C) The election of the young, sharp and ambitious Boisclair
as head of the ageing PQ brings with it a potential for the PQ
to re-invent itself as the party with broad appeal among the
next generation. Now that Boisclair is at the helm of the PQ,
he needs to widen his base. Boisclair's personal life and
cocaine past are likely to affect his popularity in rural Quebec
and among more traditional immigrant groups. For Boisclair to
succeed with these groups, he will need PQ allies. We expect
Boisclair will keep a coterie of advisors of the "revolutionary"
generation, with Landry figuring large among them.

8. (U) This cable was drafted by TDY Pol/Econ Officer Anne
Coleman.
FRIEDMAN