OPPOSITION TO MBEKI'S POLICIES AT ANC CONFERENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002599

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR S, P, AF, AF/S; NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ELAB ECON PINR SF
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION TO MBEKI'S POLICIES AT ANC CONFERENCE
IN PRETORIA

REF: PRETORIA 02333

Classified By: Ambassador Jendayi E. Frazer.
Reasons: 1.4 (B&D).


1. (U) Summary: There appeared to be a popular revolt by
provincial representatives against South African President
Thabo Mbeki's proposed program to legislate a dual economy
and redesign the ruling ANC party on the first day (June 30)
of a four-day ANC National General Council (NGC) conference
in Pretoria. Pressure by supporters of fired former Deputy
President Jacob Zuma also led to a reversal of Zuma's
decision to resign as ANC Deputy President pending the
outcome of his trial in Durban on two counts of corruption.
Municipal elections in December or early 2006 could indicate
a weakening trend in the dominance of the ANC, a party in
increasing disunity. End Summary.


2. (U) Reportedly, ANC delegates from key provinces (Eastern
Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Free State) at the June
30-July 3 ANC National General Council (NGC) meeting at the
University of Pretoria are poised to reject two discussion
documents: "Development and Underdevelopment" and "The
Organization Design of the ANC." A July 1 Mail&Guardian
newspaper report noted that this move could derail ANC
President Thabo Mbeki's plans to legislate a dual labor
market by easing or eliminating high labor costs and
regulations to address the unemployment rate and also hamper
a move toward a more technocratic ANC with recalcitrant
branches and provinces being brought more firmly under the
control of Luthuli House (ANC Headquarters in Johannesburg),
respectively.


3. (U) There was also a groundswell of support at the
conference for former Deputy President Jacob Zuma. Mbeki had
fired Zuma on June 14 in the wake of the early June
conviction of Zuma's former financial advisor for corruption
and fraud and Zuma's indictment on two counts of corruption.
Zuma and Mbeki entered the conference together, avoiding
different receptions from their supporters and sat
collegially next to each other. Zuma's KZN supporters wore
t-shirts pronouncing his innocence.


4. (C) Unusually, diplomats have not been invited to attend
any sessions of the ANC NGC, including the opening meeting,
which, according to a reliable source, started two hours late
due to efforts to keep the Zuma issue off of the agenda
completely and get on with the course of business. Our
source stated that "everyone was for Zuma" and not one
liberation song was sung in honor of Mbeki, but Mandela,
Zuma, and Oliver Tambo's wife received several songs. All
but one of South Africa's nine provinces (Gauteng where party
discipline held),the ANCYL, and COSATU wanted Zuma to
participate in the ANC National Executive Council (NEC)
meeting and demanded that he retain his position as ANC
Deputy President, notwithstanding his firing as the SAG
Deputy President.


5. (C) Zuma, our source stated, came out and said that no one
had forced him to not participate in ANC affairs, affirming
that it was his decision alone. However, Zuma noted that
since it was the "sentiment of the movement" and the peoples'
wish that he continue to serve in party affairs, he would do
so. Our source affirmed that it was a showdown, and Zuma,
who welcomed charges and his day in court, won the day. The
source also stated that people do not like Mbeki's economic
policies, and he does not know how to deliver his message on
those policies. For example, he does not even symbolically
deal with the challenges in the townships. The source saw a
parallel to the situation in Zimbabwe, whereby the
unpopularity of Mbeki's policies could allow populism to win
the day.


6. (U) Nonetheless, ANC leaders opened the conference with a
show of unity, with renewed criticism of patronage and
factionalism within the party, dominant themes from Luthuli
House in recent weeks. ANC Secretary General Kgalema
Motlanthe claimed that the single-minded pursuit of access to
and control of public resources and ascendancy to authority
by ANC cadres threatened to paralyze the party. The central
challenge was "to address the problems that arise from our
cadres susceptibility to moral decay occasioned by the
struggle for the control of and access to resources." He
noted that recent grassroots protests over poor municipal
service delivery was a direct consequence of growing
patronage in the party, fueling the perception that the ANC
only comes at election time. He reportedly questioned the
correctness of public servants having business interests that
do not predate assumption of public office and suggested an
automatic review by "a dedicated government agency" to
eliminate any conflict of interest.


7. (U) Motlanthe bemoaned the disconnect between party
structures and the government the ANC controls, resulting in
a breakdown of trust between provincial ANC structures and
the provincial executive council. The result, he said, was
"parallelism" between the ANC and government structures,
citing the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and the Free State
Provinces as prime examples of this problem.


8. (U) According to press reports, Mbeki stated that the NGC
had to answer questions about how the branches and other
structures of the ANC could help achieve the national
democratic revolution and assess progress it had made
promoting its principles, eradicating poverty, and improving
social cohesion.

9. (C) Comment: The ANC indeed appears to be in increasing
disunity. The rank and file forced senior ANC leaders to
backtrack on the decision to omit the Zuma issue from the
NGC's agenda, demonstrating a fundamental difference of
opinion with Mbeki on his handling of the matter and throwing
a political lifeline to Zuma. Although initial reaction to
Zuma's firing was muted and Mbeki's popularity rose in some
elements of South African society, there obviously is strong
on-going grassroots and ANC support for Zuma. Moreover, ANC
branches are functioning in only half of the country's
municipal wards, as indicated by violent protests over poor
delivery of services and some ANC members' lead role in
creating structures outside the ANC. The municipal elections
scheduled for December or early 2006 could be an indication
of a weakening trend in the ANC dominance in South Africa, if
any of the opposition parties were in a position to take
advantage of ANC vulnerability.
FRAZER