CZECH DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER ON EU AND ARMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAGUE 000860

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2015
TAGS: PREL ETTC EZ EUN
SUBJECT: CZECH DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER ON EU AND ARMS
EXPORT CONSULTATIVE MECHANISM.


Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY ECON OFFICER SAMSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AN
D (D).

1.(C) SUMMARY: The Czech Republic will focus on developments
in Belarus and Moldova at the June 10 "Visegrad 4" meeting.
According to Deputy FM Winkler, lessons learned from the
recent events in Ukraine and Kygyzstan underline that the EU
needs to improve its capacity to respond to opportunities and
that the EU underestimated the potential for change. Winkler
signaled that the Czechs will again submit a proposal to the
USG to sell a modified version of the VERA passive radar to
Vietnam. He also confirmed that the Czech government will
continue to use the consultative process with the USG after
his departure this summer. END SUMMARY


2. (C) The June 10 meeting in Poland of "Visegrad 4" (V4)
prime ministers will include Ukraine. The Czech Republic
will focus on the situation in Belarus and Moldova and they
hope to offer assistance to the development of democratic
reform in these countries. Winkler is skeptical that the
current leadership in these countries is in a position to
make significant strides forward, but agreed that the Czech
Republic is in a good position to promote a transition to
democracy based on its own experiences. Winkler is concerned
that Russia regards Belarus as a country that it "cannot
lose" and that steps need to be taken by the EU, the US, and
neighboring countries to assure Russia that democratic change
in Belarus is not a threat, but rather a gain for all.


3. (C) Winkler believes that the EU was poorly prepared for
the events in Ukraine. The messages sent from the EU were
muddled and slow. He noted that the EU urged against street
demonstrations, and then did not support the second round of
voting. His hope is that in the future, the EU will do a
better job of reaching out to Ukraine and encouraging their
democratic and market development. A systematic review of
"lessons learned" from the ORANGE Revolution in Ukraine and
the movement in Kygyzstan is crucial if the EU is to improve
its ability to communicate effectively and with one voice in
moments of political crisis.


4. (C) Regarding the recent votes on the European
Constitution, Winkler believes that a direct result of this
will be a delay in negotiations to enlarge the EU. He
anticipates that the entry of Romania and Bulgaria will be
pushed back, and that politicians will regard the
unsuccessful referenda in France and the Netherlands as clear
indications that voters are unhappy with further expansion of
the EU.


5. (C) The consultative process established last year to
review with the USG, in advance, sales of sensitive military
technology such as the VERA passive surveillance system, will
remain in place after Winkler's departure this summer (Note:
Winkler expects to be nominated to be the Czech Ambassador to
the UK). Winkler mentioned that current MFA political
Director Martin Povejsil is likely to move up to a Deputy
Minister position in the near future, and that he, rather
than the incoming First Deputy FM Jaroslav Basta (currently
Czech Ambassador to Moscow),will likely handle the security
portfolio. SepTel will discuss possible VERA sale to Vietnam.
CABANISS