CZECH CIVIC DEMOCRATS (ODS): RIGHT OF CENTER, LEFT

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAGUE 001727

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH CIVIC DEMOCRATS (ODS): RIGHT OF CENTER, LEFT
OUT OF GOVERNMENT AGAIN?

REF: A. PRAGUE 1686

B. PRAGUE 1699

Classified By: Pol-Econ Chief Mike Dodman for reasons 1.4 b+d


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. At the start of 2005, the Czech Republic's
senior opposition party, the center-right Civic Democrats
(ODS),had a comfortable lead in the polls. The party, as
well as the public, assumed ODS would easily win next June's
election and form a right-of-center government after eight
years of governments led by the Social Democrats. However,
the rebound of the Social Democrats' fortunes under PM
Paroubek, combined with lackluster ODS performance under
party leader Mirek Topolanek, mean that ODS is not likely to
be in a position to form the next government. If current
trends continue, the party could end up as the junior partner
in grand coalition, or even spend four more years in the
opposition. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) A year ago the Civic Democrats (ODS) had a
commanding lead over the Social Democrats (CSSD) in opinion
polls: 34.5% to 12.5%. That has now disappeared. One poll
released on December 1, 2005 put ODS ahead 26% to 24.5%; a
second poll released December 7 showed ODS ahead 30% to 28%.
CSSD Premier Jiri Paroubek, who only came into office this
spring, is credited with turning his party's fortunes around,
while ODS is charged with complacency. ODS now faces an
uphill battle to gain momentum. The Czech economy is doing
very well, with GDP growth expected to be over 5% (ref A),
thus minimizing what could have been a strong platform for
the pro-business ODS. Prime Minister Paroubek also makes
excellent use of his incumbency to get his message into the
media. He has an editorial in the papers, an interview on
radio, or a spot on the TV newscast nearly every day. In
contrast, Topolanek keeps a much lower profile, and
frequently comes across as sniping and acerbic when he does
appear in public.


3. (SBU) ODS is having difficulty explaining its policies and
selling itself to the public. For example, public corruption
is a salient topic and one on which CSSD is vulnerable. But
ODS, because of excesses committed when it was in power in
the early 1990,s during the period of what some consider
"wild west privatization," and alleged ongoing corruption at
the local level, is not in a position to make this an
election issue. ODS is also playing the "dangers of
communism" card every chance it gets, arguing that CSSD will
form a government through some form of cooperation with the
Communist Party (KSCM). Although the threat is real, this
tactic, too, may prove unsuccessful.

THE RED SCARE


4. (SBU) The ODS warnings about CSSD-KSCM cooperation are
unlikely to succeed for a couple of reasons. First, they are
increasingly falling on deaf ears. More and more Czechs
accept the Communists as an unavoidable part of the political
spectrum (ref B). Second, there is a note of hypocrisy in the
ODS warning, since they themselves also cooperate with KSCM.
ODS city councilmen share power with KSCM councilmen in 31
towns. (For comparison purposes, CSSD works with Communists
in 45 towns.) More conspicuously, ODS co-founder, former
chairman, and current Honorary Chairman, Vaclav Klaus, was
elected president in 2003 with the help of the Communist
Party. In other words, while an important part of the
electorate would be receptive to an anti-communist message,
ODS won't necessarily be the party to benefit from it.

MAIN APPEAL STILL UNCLEAR


5. (SBU) In September, Senator Jiri Sneberger (ODS),who is
in charge of the party's election campaign, told the Embassy
that unemployment would be the main campaign theme. Yet at
the party's annual congress November 26-27, unemployment was
not even raised. ODS had previously made a 15% flat tax rate
a cornerstone of its economic program, as a means to spur
growth and investment. However CSSD, by successfully passing
its own tax reduction plan earlier this year, has strongly
undercut the appeal of the ODS plan, and it was not
highlighted at the congress (although it has not been
shelved). Surprisingly, the main initiative launched at the
congress was a proposal to guarantee every citizen a minimum
income, a plan that seems curiously leftist and out of place
on the ODS platform. Sneberger, who has not seemed to be
concerned that the party's programs are not catching on with
the public, told the Embassy the real ODS campaign would not
start until just four weeks before the election.


6. (SBU) The party's shadow foreign minister, Jan Zahradil,
spent most of his speech at the recent party congress
criticizing the EU, even though the majority of Czechs, and

ODS voters, support the Union. (Paroubek has made support
for further EU integration one of his conditions for any
potential coalition between CSSD and ODS.) The corollary to
the ODS skepticism about the EU is its unabashed support for
the U.S. and transatlantic ties. At the ODS Congress a
significant number of speakers mentioned the importance of
good relations with the U.S., and admiration for Ronald
Reagan. (COMMENT: Foreign policy is unlikely to play a
leading role in the upcoming election, so the pro-U.S. stance
is not likely to either help or hurt ODS, although the
consensus view is that a staunch anti-EU message will hurt.)


7. (SBU) Until recently, ODS had been openly pursuing a
policy of zero tolerance towards CSSD, refusing to support
legislative initiatives put forward by the Social Democrats.
(One notable exception was this month's foreign deployments
bill, which ODS supported more strongly than any of the
coalition parties, despite ODS concerns about the EU military
mission in Bosnia.) The zero tolerance policy is causing
divisions within the party, with one faction prepared to go
along with bills that are compatible with party principles,
and others who are reluctant to hand CSSD any successes.
Similarly, Topolanek continues to rule out any post-election
grand coalition, referring to those who publicly support this
possibility as "trash." (Comment: Although Paroubek has
recently toned down his rhetoric, he too has generally
dismissed the idea of a grand coalition. We continue to see
this as pre-election posturing, and expect that both of the
leading parties will look closely at a grand coalition once
election results are final.)

LEADERSHIP TROUBLES AND DECLINING SUPPORT


8. (SBU) President Klaus was such a dominant figure as ODS
Chairman that he overshadowed everyone else in the party.
Under Topolanek, a number of younger politicians have emerged
and the party has been able to put together a strong shadow
cabinet. In this respect, ODS has a much stronger bench than
CSSD, which has had difficulty finding suitable candidates
after its frequent ministerial resignations.


9. (SBU) However, Klaus proved better than Topolanek at
holding the party together. For example, ODS has a number of
very competent, respected individuals in the governorships of
12 of the nation's 13 provinces. But some of them, such as
Evzen Tosenovsky, the Governor of Moravia/Silesia, have
publicly questioned Topolanek's leadership and electability.
Topolanek has failed to capitalize on ODS success at the
regional level, with most ODS governors telling us they do
not intend to play an active role supporting ODS in the
national campaign.


10. (SBU) Topolanek's popularity, as measured in the number
of people who perceive him favorably in opinion polls, has
dropped steadily from 48% at the beginning of the year to 39%
in November. He is currently 9th in the rankings, four places
behind Prague Mayor Pavel Bem, a party colleague. Some party
insiders think Bem would have an easier time forming a grand
coalition with Paroubek than would Topolanek. Bem has
recently decided to seek another term as Prague Mayor,
meaning the party's most popular politician won't even be
running in next June's parliamentary contest. The party's
second most popular politician is Petr Bendl, Governor of the
Central Bohemian Region and Vice-Chair of the party. Bendl
will run in the parliamentary election, though he will not
give up his position as Governor until he sees how his party
does in the elections, hardly a sign of confidence in the
party's chances. At the party's November congress, a
resolution was passed saying the party was firmly united
under Topolanek's leadership. But some observers saw the need
for such a declaration as confirmation of the discontent
within the party. Still, it is widely accepted that with six
months to go before the election, no change of party leader
is likely.

BLAME IT ON PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION


11. (SBU) To a certain extent, ODS's hopes lie with the
success of its natural ally, the small Christian Democrats
(KDU-CSL),or the possible entrance to parliament of a new
fifth party, such as the European Democrats or the Greens,
who have already said that they would be willing to join ODS
in an anti-communist coalition. Based on current
preferences, ODS and KDU-CSL alone would not have the seats
to form a coalition. The problem with the fifth party
scenario is that, with the exception of the Greens, the other
handful of small extraparliamentary parties are
right-of-center. If one of them succeeds, that party will
almost certainly be an ally for ODS, and provide the seats
needed to form a government with the Christian Democrats. But
if none of the small parties get the needed 5%, they will

only end up siphoning votes away from ODS. Most of the small
parties are currently polling at less than 2%.


12. COMMENT. (C) There are still six months left before the
election and much can change in the volatile world of Czech
politics. However, based on today's polls and what we have
seen to date of the campaign abilities of the leading
parties, it does not look good for ODS. The party has been
the opposition since 1998 (although it provided support for a
minority CSSD government from 1998-2002 under the terms of
the so-called opposition agreement). Another four years in
the opposition will mean certain things for the party:
certainly Topolanek will be forced from his position, but the
party could even see itself split, as happened on several
occasions during the 1990s. A more immediate concern for
party founder Klaus is that the parliament selects the Czech
president, meaning that Klaus could have trouble getting
reelected in 2008 if ODS is in opposition. These support the
consensus view that the most likely outcome next June is a
CSSD-ODS grand coalition. This would be a government that
essentially resembles the current left-right coalition and
the previous opposition agreement, marked more by pragmatism
and the preservation of power than by overriding principle.
Of course it is possible to see several other scenarios where
ODS does remain in opposition, including a minority CSSD
government, or a coalition (like today's) of CSSD and all
parties other than ODS and KSCM, or even the slim chance of
an outright CSSD victory. The one thing that is hard to see
today is a government that ODS leads. END COMMENT.
CABANISS