CZECH CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS: STRUGGLE FOR SOUL OF

UNCLAS PRAGUE 001649

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS: STRUGGLE FOR SOUL OF
THE PARTY COULD HAVE LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES



1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) in the
Czech Republic, a numerically small force, have traditionally
exercised an influence beyond their numbers, staking out the
middle ground in order to maintain the option of forming
coalition governments with larger parties either to their
left or right. After the 2002 election, the party teamed up
with the Social Democrats (CSSD) and one other small liberal
party to form the current ruling coalition. But the party's
current Chairman, Miroslav Kalousek, elected two years ago
and reelected to a four-year term this month, has
increasingly broken ranks with the Social Democrats (CSSD)
and adopted several conservative positions that have pulled
the party to the right. This is likely to set the stage for
a right of-center alliance with the Civic Democrats (ODS),
should they be the winners in next summer's election. If the
Christian Democrats link themselves too strongly to the Civic
Democrats and this right-of-center partnership fails to form
a government, it will most likely mean the end of Kalousek's
leadership, and possibly even the eventual end of the party
in parliament. END SUMMARY.

TIGHTENING THE TIES TO ODS


2. (SBU) President Vaclav Klaus, who is honorary Chairman and
co-founder of ODS, this month attended the KDU-CSL annual
party congress, the first time a sitting president has done
so. KDU-CSL -- whose leader brought down former PM Gross
earlier this year, and a party with a reputation as an
untrustworthy political ally -- was praised by Klaus as a
force for stability. Klaus pointed out, much to the party's
credit, that its three ministers in the current government
are among the longest serving: of the 17 members of the
cabinet created in the summer of 2002, only six are still in
office, three of whom are from KDU-CSL: Foreign Minister
Svoboda, Environment Minister Ambrozek, and Transport
Minister Simonovsky. One reason some observers say Klaus is
trying to help another political party is the fact that Czech
presidents are chosen by parliament. Klaus, who would very
much like to be reelected for a second presidential term in
2008, knows that the parliament that is elected next summer
will choose the next president in 2008. Just as KDU-CSL might
need ODS to stay in parliament, President Klaus might need
KDU-CSL to stay on as president.


3. (U) The first speaker at the KDU-CSL Congress this month
was current ODS Chair, Mirek Topolanek. Topolanek stood
before a large banner proclaiming, "Socialni Jistoty Bez
Socialmu" (Social stability, without socialism),and took
KDU-CSL to task for providing the political cover CSSD needed
to increase their cooperation with the Communists. But
Topolanek went on to say that he would welcome KDU-CSL as
partners in a government that would keep the Communists from
reasserting their influence. Kalousek is also scheduled to
speak at the ODS annual party congress this weekend. No
speakers have been invited from any other Czech political
parties.

DEMOGRAPHIC AND ATTITUDINAL TRENDS AGAINST KDU-CSL


4. (U) A significant number of KDU-CSL members are
uncomfortable with the positions that Kalousek has taken, his
confrontational style, and the result these have had on the
party. Deputy Chairman Jan Kasal argued at the congress that
the party should maintain its religious roots, but could show
a bit more tolerance and flexibility. He argued, for example,
that abortion should be allowed when the health of the mother
is threatened. Church attendance and belief in God among
Czechs have declined steadily over the last decade. A recent
EU poll shows only 19% of Czechs believe in God. The
Catholic Church lost a third of its members in the 1990s and
other churches showed even larger declines. The Czech
Republic is arguably the most secularized country in the EU.
By linking its lot inextricably with the Church, KDU-CSL also
makes it harder to attract new members. In fact, the
Christian Democrats had 44,800 members last year, 15,600 less
than in 1998.


5. (U) Demographics are not in the party,s favor either. The
average age of party members is 62. At the recent party
congress, the party leadership voted to amend past practices
and increase the electoral terms for party leaders from two
years to four, in spite of an impassioned plea from a member
of the party,s youth wing that such a move would keep any up
and comers out of any active leadership roles for an
additional four years, and make it hard for the party to
field appealing, experienced young candidates in 2010.


6. (U) In addition, the party's positions on a number of
issues seem to run counter to current trends. The party has

adopted a hard line on narcotics just as the country is
leaning towards non-criminalization of the possession of
small amounts of soft drugs. The party promotes family values
in its published platform. But Czechs have the third lowest
birth-rate in the world, behind only China with its one-child
policy, and Hong Kong, where housing shortages and career
ambitions have led to one-child families. KDU-CSL is the only
Czech party for whom faith plays any role. KDU is strongly
opposed to abortion, communism, same-sex marriage, and
tolerance towards so called soft drugs; and strongly in favor
of family values and entrepreneurism. For the U.S., KDU-CSL's
decreasing numbers represent the potential loss of a
like-minded partner.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: If Kalousek's gamble pays off and
ODS/KDU-CSL get enough votes to form a government, then
Kalousek will be in a strong position. He could push for
KDU-CSL maintaining its three, or possibly even more cabinet
seats, which would be good for U.S. interests. Foreign
Minister Svoboda has been particularly good for US-Czech
ties. Svoboda's personal crusade against the regime in Cuba
has even led to threats against him and his family.


8. (SBU) In the most recent poll of political preferences,
released November 17, KDU-CSL was supported by just 6.3%, a
drop of 2.1% from the October poll. This leaves them just
above the 5% threshold for entry into parliament. They
should make it into parliament next year, and will almost
certainly do all they can to link up with whichever party
forms a government. But if Paroubek's CSSD decides it doesn't
need KDU-CSL, and the Christian Democrats spend four years in
the opposition, the party could have trouble getting 5% in

2010. The current demographic and opinion trends, if
unchanged, will exacerbate the party's decline. Small
opposition parties can easily become extraparliamentary
parties and in the Czech Republic, those tend to become and
remain politically insignificant.
CABANISS