Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05PRAGUE1601
2005-11-10 14:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Prague
Cable title:  

CZECHS PROVIDE RECIPE FOR DEMOCRACY IN BELARUS

Tags:  PREL EAID PHUM KDEM PGOV BO EZ EUN 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001601 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2015
TAGS: PREL EAID PHUM KDEM PGOV BO EZ EUN
SUBJECT: CZECHS PROVIDE RECIPE FOR DEMOCRACY IN BELARUS

REF: A. STATE 188900


B. PRAGUE 1399

Classified By: Poloff Sarah C. Peck for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001601

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2015
TAGS: PREL EAID PHUM KDEM PGOV BO EZ EUN
SUBJECT: CZECHS PROVIDE RECIPE FOR DEMOCRACY IN BELARUS

REF: A. STATE 188900


B. PRAGUE 1399

Classified By: Poloff Sarah C. Peck for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. The Czechs have been working for years to
promote democracy in Belarus. Thus, talking to the Czechs
about Belarus is like preaching to the choir. The Czech MFA,
in the words of their Transition Promotion Unit Coordinator,
supports U.S. policy toward Belarus without hesitation. She
also gave her unvarnished assessment of the political
situation in Belarus (guarded optimism that a transition will
take place); described Czech support of Belarusian opposition
leader, Alesandr Milinkievich (unconditional); and summarized
the Czech approach to promoting democracy in Belarus (a
formula based on experience). In short, the Czechs are ready,
willing, and able to support U.S. efforts to promote
democracy in Belarus. End summary.

--------------
Czechs support U.S. policy on Belarus
--------------


2. (C) Poloff met recently with Czech MFA officials Gabriela
Dlouha, Transition Promotion Unit Coordinator, and Ivana
Kuranianova, Department of Southwestern and Eastern Europe,
to discuss Czech efforts to promote democratic transition in
Belarus, and to deliver ref A talking points. Dlouha said the
Czechs strongly support the U.S. policy, and she endorsed
each point articulated in the talking points. Note, however,
that while Dlouha agreed Russia is an important player, she
was pessimistic that Russia can be persuaded to turn its back
on the Lukashenko regime. In her view, Russia is not
interested in regime change because any turn toward the west
means losing importance in the region.

--------------
Election in Belarus: cause for optimism
--------------


3. (C) Dlouha predicted that Lukashenko will try to steal the
election, and thinks Russia and some western countries are
nave on this point. However, the election would be close
even without fraud. She estimated that 45-50% of the voters
actually support Lukashenko, citing social stability and the

country's good economy as reason for their support.


4. (C) Nevertheless, she also saw reasons for guarded
optimism that the opposition could win the election. First,
the very fact that the three major opposition groups elected
one common candidate, Alesandr Milinkievich, is a major
success. Second, Milinkievich could win the election on his
own merits. He has measurable support, and the Czechs think
he is qualified to lead (Dlouha noted he is an economist and
a good manager). Moreover, Milinkievich says he can bring
people to the streets if there is fraud. (Unlike Ukraine,
however, Dlouha predicted violence if such an event occurs.)
Third, the political conditions in Belarus are more favorable
for transition then the conditions in Czechoslovakia before
1989: Belarus has a formal opposition party with a
presidential candidate, a shadow government, and an
established political system.


5. (U) To increase the chances for a successful transition,
the Czechs have launched pro-democracy initiatives in Belarus
that read like a how-to manual: (1) promote free elections by
strongly supporting the opposition and taking a tough stand
against the dictatorship; (2) promote free press; and (3)
rebuild civil society by training Belarusian democracy
advocates.

-------------- --------------
Promoting Free Elections, Step 1: Support the Opposition
-------------- --------------


6. (U) The Czechs were among the first to publicly support
the opposition. In the days following the election of
Milinkievich as the elected common opposition candidate,
Czech PM Jiri Paroubek announced unconditional support for
him. Former Czech president Vaclav Havel immediately invited
Milinkievich to visit Prague to meet with Czech FM Cyril
Svoboda. The former Czech Ambassador to the U.S., Alexandr
Vondra, will travel to Belarus in November to meet with him.
The Czechs also encouraged the EU to recognize Milinkievich.


7. (U) In addition, the opposition requires financial
support. Therefore, the Czechs have urged the EU to change
its funding requirements to permit EU funds to go directly to
civil society rather than through Belarusian NGOs (controlled
by the GOB). The Czechs have also urged the EU to invite
Milinkievich to come to Brussels to explain what he needs in
the way of EU support.


8. (C) An important aspect of supporting the opposition is
denouncing the regime. The Czechs therefore supported the
U.S. proposal that the EU should call on Lukashenko not to
run again for the presidency. The Czechs submitted the
proposal to the EU working group in advance of the Nov 7
GAERC. However, according to Petr Kaiser, Director of the
Czech MFA's CFSP Department, the Czechs were the only
supporters of the proposal. Although the proposal failed to
pass, the EU did ultimately issue strong statements against
the GOB after the GAERC. The Czechs have also urged the EU to
impose political sanctions on members of the Lukashenko
regime (but not to impose economic sanctions).

--------------
Step 2: Promote Independent Media Channels
--------------


9. (C) Dlouha said the success of Milinkievich,s campaign
depends on whether he can get his message to the voters.
Unfortunately, the government-controlled media is closed to
the opposition. Therefore, Milinkievich is conducting an
old-fashioned, door-to-door campaign. Dlouha said this
approach will be effective because the opposition can reach
"every day" people this way. She added that the Belarus
pro-democracy radio project (financially supported by the
Czechs, Poles, EU, and USAID, ref B) will play a critical
role in the election by supporting opposition outreach
efforts. Because timing is crucial, the Czechs aim to have
radio programming on the air by the end of 2005. At a
conference in Prague on Oct 10 attended by Poloff,
Milinkievich expressed gratitude for the radio project, and
added that the opposition "desperately" needs paper to
distribute campaign fliers and samostat newspapers.

--------------
Step 3: Rebuild Civil Society
--------------


10. (U) Drawing on their own peaceful transition from
communism to democracy, the Czechs recognize the need to
educate civil society to prepare it to govern. Accordingly,
the Czechs have launched a number of initiatives that provide
educational, financial and political support to Belarusian
democracy advocates. For example:

--- The Czechs provide seminars and study trips for
Belarusians involved in democratic reform (e.g., journalists,
lawyers, local politicians, educators, economists, etc.).
Lectures take place in the Czech Republic, and address human
rights, defense, education, good governance, institution
building, etc.

--- Scholarships in the Czech Republic for persecuted
students who are forced out of Belarusian colleges because of
their views.

--- Financial assistance for victims of political repression.

--- Election monitoring.


11. (SBU) Comment. Democracy promotion in Belarus is a
priority for both the Czech Republic and the U.S. This
creates considerable opportunities for cooperation. The U.S.
will find in the Czechs a committed partner -- one that can
provide needed support, expertise, and inspiration for U.S.
efforts to promote democracy in Belarus, Cuba, and other
non-democratic states.
CABANISS