REGINALD BOULOS AIMS TO ENGINEER PREVAL'S DEFEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 003093

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HA
SUBJECT: REGINALD BOULOS AIMS TO ENGINEER PREVAL'S DEFEAT

REF: A. PAUP 2994

B. PAUP 3059

C. PAUP 2029

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Timothy M. Carney for reasons 1.4(b).


1. (C) Summary. Haitian chamber of commerce president and
political activist Reginald Boulos is conducting weekly
polling that shows Preval with a commanding lead over Charles
Henri Baker and Leslie Manigat. He is disappointed that the
parties in the "Political Entente for Democracy and
Modernity" (ref A) he has engineered together with G-184
leader Andy Apaid has failed to unify around a single
candidate to oppose Preval. Boulos will directly support the
two strongest candidates within the entente, Baker and
Manigat. He is confident, however, that a parliamentary
majority will come from entente parties and will actively
support entente parliamentary candidates across the board.
Boulos believes that a second Preval presidency would be a
"disaster" for the country, but that if Preval is elected in
a credible election, he will work to see that the entente
parties live up to their pledge to accept the results and
oppose Preval by democratic means. Boulos confirmed that
Preval had made efforts to reach out to him, but that Preval
was responsible for gross abuses of law and order during his
presidency and could not be trusted. No matter what the
outcome, Boulos said he will continue to build on the program
adopted by entente; rational economic policy and efficient,
transparent government. Boulos is refreshingly
straightforward, and no doubt continues to harbor short-term
and long-term ambitions to become prime minister and
otherwise exercise key influence in Haitian politics. End
Summary.

More Polling
--------------


2. (C) During a dinner with Pol and Econcouns on December 16
to discuss recent campaign developments, Boulos advised that
his "Foundation for a New Haiti" (a Haitian PAC equivalent
and affiliate of the larger G-184) was carrying out polling
on a weekly basis (with results tabulated every Monday) that
essentially tracked with post's CID/Gallup and more recent
results from other polling organizations. Boulos' data from
December 12 showed Preval with 35% support, Baker with 14%
and Manigat with 8%. Boulos highlighted that support for
Simeus registered by CID/Gallup appears to have gone to
candidates other than Preval. Boulos noted ruefully that
things might be different if Preval did not have such a huge
advantage in resources over his rivals. Baker had raised his
level of support from early November through intensive
campaigning, but modest expenditures. Manigat, who had
practically no resources and done virtually no campaigning,
also continued to rise in the polls. Boulos said that
Manigat was Preval's strongest opponent in head-to-head
scenarios they polled. Manigat was within reach of Preval,
taking into account a five percent margin of error; everyone
else, including Baker, ran significantly behind Preval.


3. (C) Based on that information, and recognizing that the
entente candidates would not unify against a single
candidate, Boulos said that he would directly support Baker
and Manigat, the only two candidates he believed had any
chance of defeating Preval. After interrupting the
conversation to take a call from disqualified
Haitian-American candidate Samir Mourra, Boulos happily
related that Mourra was about to conclude an agreement to
support Manigat. He felt that Mourra had generated
significant support for both himself and his MPH party, and
that Mourra's endorsement would provide a significant boost
to Manigat. (Note: Media confirmed Mourra's endorsement of
Manigat on December 18. End Note)


4. (C) Boulos stated that there was much more hope for
anti-Preval forces in the parliamentary races, where his
polling showed that the entente parties would win a majority
of seats both in the senate and the chamber of deputies, with
OPL, Fusion, and Alyans polling the most strength. He
emphasized that it was all the more critical, therefore, that
the presidential race carry through to the second round.
Otherwise, significant numbers of anti-Preval voters might
sit out the second round or else jump on the L'Espwa
bandwagon. Boulos said that L'Espwa/Famni Lavalas candidates
currently would win only five senate seats -- pressed by
Polcouns, he grudgingly conceded a difference between the two
parties, saying L'Espwa candidates were running stronger.
Boulos stated that the strongest senatorial candidate
appeared to be Youri Latortue from the Artibonite Department,
who was "hugely popular" and because of his huge advantage in
resources, was running, "virtually unopposed."

Preval No Friend
--------------


5. (C) Boulos confirmed that Preval had made a special
effort to reach out to him, (ref B),but that Boulos had
resisted those overtures. Boulos remained deeply skeptical
that Preval had altered his approach to governance or would
improve his performance as president. He related that during
their most recent meeting in October, he had confronted
Preval regarding Preval's support of gang leaders and
widespread corruption within his government -- "I told him
that you were either involved or dumb, either way you were a
bad president" -- but that Preval had refused to respond to
his charges. Boulos said it was "shameful" that Preval had
allowed Aristide to force his Minister for State Security
Robert Manuel to flee Haiti fearing for his life. Boulos
said that Preval may well have broken with Aristide, but that
Preval may be too weak not to allow Aristide and his circle
back into Haitian politics. Boulos said that in his last
conversation with Preval, conducted on the telephone, he had
told Preval that he would work against his election with all
his energy, but that if Preval won he was willing to try to
work for compromise in the interest of Haiti. Preval, he
said, had said that his position was "fair."

Three Months to Form the Entente
--------------


6. (C) Boulos acknowledged his disappointment that after
three months of negotiation he had been unable to form a more
solid alliance to oppose Preval. He had, however, achieved
other significant goals. Most important, he said, was the
agreement of the nine parties to accept the result of a
credible election, a point on which he had met significant
resistance. Furthermore, the parties had agreed on the broad
terms of a policy program and to work together in the
parliament. The program focused on better government and
combating corruption, and creating employment.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Our own observations bear out Boulos' remarks about
Preval's advantage in campaign funding. In Port-au-Prince,
Preval fliers and banners far outnumber other candidates, his
radio spots dominate the airwaves, and vehicles with
bullhorns roam the streets blaring out his message. This is
reportedly also the case in the rest of the country. Taiwan
is the source of foreign funding for Preval most often
mentioned, but Boulos and others admit that many Haitian
business people including those who Preval presumably favored
during his first term, are supporting Preval again.


8. (C) Comment Continued: Boulos is refreshingly
straightforward and candid. Rather than spin conspiracy
theories as most political observers in Haiti tend to do, he
concentrates on accurate polling and research and drawing
logical conclusions. His political leanings may color some
of those conclusions, but his polling appears to be unbiased
and a useful tool in understanding the direction of the
campaign. Though not discussed during this meeting, Boulos
has been open about his political ambitions with us in the
past, including the becoming prime minister (ref C),and
every serious presidential contender in the race has courted
him.
CARNEY