HAITIAN CANDIDATES' OBSTINATE PURSUIT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002994

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA AND USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV HA
SUBJECT: HAITIAN CANDIDATES' OBSTINATE PURSUIT OF
PRESIDENCY IMPEDES COALITION-BUILDING


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Douglas M. Griffiths for Reasons
: 1.4 (b and d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Nine Haitian political parties,
essentially comprising an anti-Preval front, have agreed to
support the presidential candidate among them who advances to
the second round. The agreement includes Charles Henry
Baker, who had previously been excluded from discussions of
party alliances because of his independent status. With the
publication of the electoral calendar, the pace of
discussions among various presidential candidates has
intensified, and smaller alliances may emerge. But the
unwillingness of the most established candidates to step
aside in support of a single candidate casts doubt on their
ability to unite in opposition to Preval. Preval could
conceivably win in the first round, particularly if
disqualified candidate Dumas Simeus concludes an alliance
with him. End Summary.

The Political Agreement for Democracy and Modernity
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2. (SBU) On November 28, 2005, nine Haitian parties signed
an agreement to support the presidential candidate among them
who advances from the first round of national elections on
January 8, 2006. The parties came to this agreement assuming
that their candidate would face off against the front-runner,
former president Rene Preval. (Haitian electoral law
stipulates that if no candidate receives an absolute majority
in the first round, the top two vote-getters proceed to a
second round run-off election.) The nine parties signing the
Political Agreement for Democracy and Modernity accord
include: RDNP (presidential candidate - Leslie Manigat),
Alyans (Evans Paul),KOMBA/PLB (Charles Henry Baker),FUSION
(Serge Gilles),OPL (Paul Denis),MOCHRENHA (Luc Mesadieu),
Union to Save Haiti-UNCRH (Chavannes Jeune),GFCD (Hubert
DeRonceray) and the Haitian Liberal Party-PLH (none). If two
of the signatories make it into the second round, each party
is free to support their choice of candidate. The agreement
also calls for the formalization of the opposition once a
parliament is seated and the establishment of "significant"
state budgetary support for parties that obtain at least five
percent of votes for the presidency and at least ten percent
of parliamentary seats (even for non-signatories to the
accord).


3. (C) Several sources, both political and non-political,
have told Polcouns that G-184 leaders, notably Andy Apaid and
Reginald Boulos, have concentrated their political efforts on
completing this agreement. Apaid himself had reportedly
favored Manigat, but shifted his focus over the past several
weeks to promoting an anti-Preval alliance. In the process,
Apaid and Boulos successfully brought independent candidate
Charles Henri Baker, who had previously been left out of
previous discussions among party leaders. (Note: Baker
allied with KOMBA and smaller PLB only after successfully
establishing his independent candidacy. End Note.)


4. (C) Alyans campaign manager Fred Brutus shared the results
of an Alyans poll with poloff on December 1 showing Paul,
Preval and Baker as the top three candidates. Brutus said
that he was in talks with the disqualified presidential
candidate Samir Mourra to pursue an electoral alliance with
Mourra's MPH party. (Note: Mourra later confirmed his
campaign manager was meeting Brutus. End note). Brutus
flatly said the Political Agreement for Democracy and
Modernity would disintegrate, possibly even before the first
round. Mourra had told poloff November 30 that he would have
considered joining this coalition, but was not asked to be
included. Mourra said he had held talks with several of the
candidates involved and none mentioned this agreement before
it was publicly announced. Mourra continues to pursue his
challenge before the supreme court to have his name put back
on the ballot.

Simeus Considering Alliance
--------------


5. (U) Disqualified presidential candidate Dumas Simeus
announced at a December 1 press conference that his "Tet
Ansamn" party would soon make "an alliance or coalition" with
another party, so that the electoral contest could be decided
"in one round." Simeus told the press he has talked to
several candidates, but he only mentioned L'Espoir's Rene
Preval by name. (Note: In discussions with Polcouns over the
last several months, Simeus has consistently mentioned Preval
most often in discussing potential alliances, but has
insisted that he will consider all options. End Note.)

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The November 28 agreement is the result of the
acknowledgment that Preval is the front-runner, and might
even carry the election in the first round. While the
signing of the accord made a big splash in the media, it
simply formalizes a grouping of parties that began to
coalesce with their adoption of the June 2005 governability
pact, in which signatories pledged to work together in the
new parliament and to create an inclusive cabinet. It was
surprising to see Baker included in this latest agreement:
his status as an independent, and success in garnering
support, has been a hard pill to swallow for the
long-standing members of the "political class." His
inclusion shows they prefer to have him as an ally rather
than another front of competition. Despite the growing fear
of Preval, however, this coalition's ability to form a
credible front will only succeed if presidential hopefuls
overcome their unwillingness to be the first to step aside in
favor of another candidate. End Comment.
CARNEY