HAITI ELECTIONS: PREVAL'S MEETING WITH CDA CARNEY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002989

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA AND USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV HA
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS: PREVAL'S MEETING WITH CDA CARNEY,
NOVEMBER 29


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Timothy M. Carney for Reasons: 1.4 (b
and d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Former President Rene Preval expressed
satisfaction with the January 8 election date in a meeting
with Charge d'Affaires Carney on November 29. He expressed
confidence that he was the leading candidate, attributing his
popularity to his previous term and his attempts to improve
Haiti's infrastructure. Preval evinced less than thorough
knowledge of his party's slate of senate and parliamentary
candidates, and demonstrated no enthusiasm over its chances
to gain a parliamentary majority. Policy goals include
dedicating "at least 20 percent of the budget" towards
education, and formalizing the informal economy, which he
estimates at $2 billion. The Charge and post's senior
officers have maintained a regular dialogue with Preval over
the past two months, and in light of his front-running
status, we will maintain this contact and seek to expand the
scope of our dialogue. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Charge Carney called on former president and
L'Espoir (Hope) presidential candidate Rene Preval on
November 29, at his campaign headquarters to discuss the
campaign. Preval included his former Prime Minister Jacques
Edouard Alexis and former Foreign Minister Fritz Longchamp
and several other L'Espoir party members. Preval told the
Charge he has demurred from participating in the
Embassy-sponsored debates between the leading candidates
because he has not sorted out differences with the party's
platform drafted by others within L'Espoir, though he
suggested that he may be interested in participating in the
second round of debates. (Note: Media coverage of the final
debate between Evans Paul and Leslie Manigat on December 1
focused on Manigat's public admonishment of Preval for not
appearing. End Note).


3. (SBU) Preval felt comfortable with the announcement that
the first round of elections will take place January 8, 2006.
He favored "good elections, but quickly because the people
want them." Preval suggested that some interests do not want
elections, including those who suggest elections should be
delayed at least two years. He also indicated that the
Interim Government of Haiti's (IGOH) failure to meet the
constitutionally-mandated transition date of February 7 would
create problems only if elections ran poorly: "If elections
are good, no one will care about February 7." Preval
believes that interim prime minister Latortue will not step
down as promised on February 7, arguing that Latortue will
need to stay on until a new prime minister is sworn into
office. He noted that the issue whether the next president's
term is five years from the date of inauguration or February
7 needed to be discussed prior to the inauguration.


4. (C) Preval said his party is "calm" and encouraging the
Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) to do its job without
layering on criticism. He admitted the CEP was "not ready"
and cited the bungled announcement of electoral dates as
evidence. Preval raised the issue of voting sites, warning
that more are required as many Haitians would find it
difficult to get to their assigned voting locations. Preval
said people would give up if they went to the wrong voting
site. Preval did not know how many candidates his party is
running. Advisors at the meeting, including Preval's former
prime minister, education minister and foreign minister,
informed Preval and the Charge that L'Espoir had 75 or 76
candidates for deputy and 20 senatorial candidates. Preval
shook his head no when asked if L'Espoir could win a majority
in parliament.


5. (SBU) Preval said that his apparent status as
front-runner in the campaign is due to his tenure as
president of Haiti 1995-2000. Preval recited having begun
several infrastructural projects, but blamed their
incompletion on lack of materiel. Preval said that education
would be his priority during a second administration and
would dedicate "at least 20 percent of the budget." He
added, "if we can get it up to 40%, we'll do it." Preval
wants to fulfill his first administration's promise of
providing universal primary and secondary education. He
lamented that parents cannot afford to send their children to
school and said he would encourage small to medium-sized
enterprises to create jobs to help parents defray education
costs. Preval noted the one place children could receive a
meal was at school. Preval said he is an ardent believer in
the teachings of Peruvian economist Hernando De Soto. Preval
estimates that the informal economy in Haiti generates over
USD two billion and it should be "secularized and
formalized." Preval admitted that there has to be
simultaneous macroeconomic management to lead to growth in
the economy. Preval said he would work to strengthen
institutions (nfi) and achieve decentralization of the
government called for by the Haitian constitution.


6. (C) On security, Preval said there is no need for a
Haitian army since Haiti is "neither defending itself from
war nor making war." Preval said he is inclined to maintain
the presence of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti
(MINUSTAH) since they are "here to help." Preval advocates
the creation of a type of gendarmerie.


7. (C) Comment: As he has done so in several prior
meetings, Preval appeared fit and in good health, not
betraying any signs of the chronic alcoholism from which he
is rumored to suffer. His excuse for not participating in
our debates is no more than that. Preval has yet to appear
in public or pronounce on any issue, and as the acknowledged
front runner (confirmed by our most recent CID-Gallup poll)
there is no reason to expect him to change his strategy.
Preval has always made himself available to us privately, and
the conversations have been cordial and wide-ranging, if
somewhat guarded. Preval has demonstrated a desire to
maintain a dialogue with the USG. Post will address the
political ramifications of his front-runner status via
septel, but for the moment, we will continue our steady
dialogue with Preval and his close advisors and seek to
expand the areas of our talks to include matters of key
bilateral interest. End comment.
CARNEY