Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05PORTAUPRINCE2820
2005-11-14 19:50:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Port Au Prince
Cable title:  

HAITI ELECTIONS VOTE COUNT, QUICK COUNT,

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM HA 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002820 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR
DRL
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HA
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS VOTE COUNT, QUICK COUNT,
CREDIBILITY


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002820

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR
DRL
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HA
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS VOTE COUNT, QUICK COUNT,
CREDIBILITY



1. Summary: The February electoral decree provides five days
for results to move from the voting centers (BVs) to the
Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) through the communal and
departmental electoral bureaus (BECs/BEDs). MINUSTAH and the
CEP have agree that throughout the process, MINUSTAH will
transport results and the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP)
will tally and announce them. However, while MINUSTAH
prefers to move results by truck and helicopter, some CEP
members prefer to transmit them by satellite. However, a
recent partial test of the satellite system failed. MINUSTAH
plans an internal quick count to verify results once they
have reached the communal election bureaus (BECs). The
Canadian Government contends MINUSTAH should not run the
quick count because of its role in the electoral process.
The EU Mission suggested that its monitoring mission might
run a quick count instead. In addition, Canadian diplomats
proposed using the USAID-funded political party support
centers to bolster local press coverage of election night to
help strengthen the credibility of the results. End Summary.

CEP will Count, MINUSTAH will Transport
--------------


2. The vote counting plan outlined in the February electoral
decree called for results to be passed from voting centers to
the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) through communal and
departmental electoral bureaus, but the CEP and MINUSTAH
support separate counting plans that would centralize as much
of the process as possible. According to the February
electoral decree, MINUSTAH and the Provisional Electoral
Council (CEP) will have five days to count votes and release
results: 24 hours for results to reach the communal electoral
bureaus (BEC) from the voting centers (BVs); 24 hours for the
results to reach the departmental electoral bureaus (BEDs);
and 48 hours for the results to reach the CEP. The CEP has
long supported using the National Bank,s V-SAT satellite
communication system to transmit results from the BECs to
Port-au-Prince and centralize results tabulation. The CEP
arranged to use the National Bank of Haiti's old V-SAT
system, but has not procured and installed the additional
equipment necessary for satellite transmission in all of the

BECs. During the week of October 31 - November 4, the CEP,s
first partial test of the system was unsuccessful because the
National Bank,s generator failed. MINUSTAH election
officials agree that centralized counting would increase
transparency, but argue the V-SAT system is too expensive and
liable to fail. They advocate using helicopters to transport
results (but not ballots, which will be securely stored near
voting centers) from the BECs to Port-au-Prince and counting
the results centrally.

MINUSTAH Proposes Quick Count - EU Better Option
-------------- ---


3. In an effort to discourage cheating, MINUSTAH proposed a
parallel quick count. According to MINUSTAH quick count
consultant Glenn Cowan, MINUSTAH would use results from a
sampling of 75 - 100 BECs, which would enable the quick count
to be accurate to within 'a few' percent. Given the
international presence on the ground, he said, a
statistically relevant quick count would cost as little as
USD 100,000.


4. Members of the international community support a quick
count, but oppose MINUSTAH,s involvement. A Canadian
diplomat observed that because MINUSTAH is administering
elections, not only is it already overburdened, Haitians
would question its neutrality. Bias against MINUSTAH would
undermine the purpose of the quick count by making it useless
to publicly verify results. She also worried that losers
might attempt to foment a nationalistic backlash by claiming
MINUSTAH manipulated elections and covered its tracks by
verifying its own work. Confronted with the Canadian
assessment, LeChevallier said the quick count would be an
internal MINUSTAH document used only to pressure the IGOH and
CEP, verifying the Canadian assessment.


5. EU officers volunteered to consider a quick count as part
of the EU monitoring mission. Friends of Haiti
representatives supported the idea as the best source of a
quick count and noted that the EU's 44 medium term, observers
slated to arrive in the coming weeks, and 40 short-term
observers, for election days, would provide coverage for an
accurate quick count. The EU Mission has requested guidance
from Brussels, but has not yet received a response.

Media Could Lend Results Credibility
--------------


6. The Canadian embassy unofficially proposed supporting
elections results by funding the Haitian media to provide
election night coverage from the BEC level. MINUSTAH
elections officials agreed with the need for robust local
media coverage, but said because most fraud is likely to
occur before results arrive at the BECs, the same result
could be achieved by reporting from the BED level. They
proposed using the USAID funded political party centers as
press buildings on election nights. USAID and UNOPS believe
the plan is feasible and are exploring the technical aspects
of how to best use the centers.

Quick Count Must be Neutral
--------------


7. Comment: Haiti's history of electoral fraud makes
multiple-source reporting of results critical to accepted
elections. However, a quick count must be a public document
for it to be useful verifying results. A MINUSTAH quick
count would fail in that measure, but an EU-run quick count
would not. The EU's 84 total observers would provide roughly
the right number of sample points from the BECs. Post
recommends pushing the EU to include a quick count in its
monitoring plan.

GRIFFITHS