Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05PORTAUPRINCE2765
2005-11-08 10:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Port Au Prince
Cable title:  

FORMER PRESIDENT LESLIE MANIGAT WAITING FOR CALL

Tags:  PREL PGOV HA 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002765 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA)
WHA/EX PLEASE PASS USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV HA
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT LESLIE MANIGAT WAITING FOR CALL


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Timothy M. Carney for reasons 1.4 (B)
and (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002765

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA)
WHA/EX PLEASE PASS USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV HA
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT LESLIE MANIGAT WAITING FOR CALL


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Timothy M. Carney for reasons 1.4 (B)
and (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a meeting on October 31, former
President Leslie Manigat told Charge that he is a natural
consensus candidate around whom numerous parties will rally
to counter what will likely be a strong showing from fellow
ex-President Rene Preval. Manigat said that FUSION and OPL
are strong, well organized parties, but their presidential
candidates, Serge Gilles and Paul Denis respectively, are not
"Presidential." He appeared content to wait for these
parties to call him out of retirement. Manigat was
pessimistic about electoral progress and he spoke candidly on
the prospects of democracy in Haiti. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On October 31, Manigat welcomed Charge to his
palatial home/campaign headquarters in La Plaine, a suburban
haven north of Port-au-Prince that has been overtaken by the
ever-expanding shantytowns north and west of Cite Soleil.
Manigat, who was President in 1988 for four months of the
post-Duvalier era, and his wife/campaign manager, Myrlande,
are aged veterans and astute observers of the Haitian
political scene.

Electoral Pitfalls ---


3. (C) Manigat told Charge that the majority of Haitians do
not see how elections can take place. Further, he stated
that the transition will be extremely difficult for the
winner, who will have to assemble a new cabinet and
administration in a matter of days after the second round.
He blamed the current situation on three factors: the gross
incompetence of the CEP, the manipulation of the electoral
process by the political class, and machinations against
elections by those who profit from the anarchy. Charge
replied that there are certainly those in the interim
government who wish to remain in power, those in Haiti who
benefit from the current legitimacy vacuum, and plenty of
incompetence to go around. Nevertheless, Manigat believes
that Haiti can meet the December 18 first round date, but he
is worried that Haitian peasants will not make the numerous
lengthy trips necessary to pick up their registration cards

and vote in the two electoral rounds. He said, "clearly,
election conditions will not be ideal."


4. (C) Charge asked Manigat about the State Commission on
the Nationality of Candidates (CENC) and how it would affect
the publication of the candidate lists. Manigat responded
that this issue was only one of several which basically
boiled down to one question: how to make the elections
acceptable. He stated that there was a need to make the
elections both psychologically and practically acceptable,
saying "the population can just as easily accept a severely
flawed election as condemn a perfect one. It all depends on
the circumstances." In his view the key was to reduce the
number of significant parties to around seven, with seven
heavyweight presidential candidates, all of whom would commit
to accept the results of the elections, no matter what. He
stated that the acceptance of the result by major candidates
would be crucial in order to nullify what he called the
"absolute certainty that other, lesser candidates will cry
foul."

Retire the Supreme Court ---


5. (C) Charge then asked Manigat what would be the role of
the Court of Cassation (Haitian supreme court),now that the
interim government had removed it from the electoral appeal
process. Manigat replied that, despite the decree removing
the Court of Cassation from the process, any serious appeal
would inevitably wind up before the Court. Referring to a
tactic of fellow post-Duvalier President Ertha Truillot, he
stated that one way to avoid this would be for the President
to forcibly retire three of the justices, eliminating a
quorum and rendering the Court inoperative.

Haiti "Not A Democracy" ---


6. (C) On the prospect of progress in Haiti, Manigat was
candid. He said that Haiti has two problems, money and a
lack of democracy. According to him, Haiti is not a
democracy, because Haiti has no democrats. He said, "the
political class and elite are not democratic. They
fraudulently manipulate the electoral process to secure power
by installing their loyalists in the electoral offices and
polling places." He said that the only motivation of the
political class is power. He said that the Haitian people as
a whole are changing, but that intolerance is still the most
prevalent attitude, "Aristide or death, Duvalier or death,
etc." The Charge noted that at times it seems that vengeance
is the primary motivation of the political class, and Manigat
agreed saying, "With 50 percent of the population illiterate,
with no civic development and no education, how can Haiti be
democratic?" He described Haiti as a country that ignores
impending catastrophe until the absolute last minute, then
improvises.

7. (C) Manigat believes that the traditional power
structure still has control in Haiti, despite progressive and
democratic advances of the past two decades. However, he
feels that this election might be the opportunity to
definitively break with the old structure of ruling elite and
impoverished masses.

Preval, Simeus, Bazin, Aristide ---


8. (C) Charge asked Manigat whether he would go it alone or
seek political alliances, and whether he is concerned about
fellow ex-President Rene Preval. Manigat stated that he must
publicly go it alone while preparing to build a coalition.
He stated that Paul Denis of OPL and Serge Gilles of FUSION
were not sufficiently "presidential" to win for their
respective parties, and he envisioned an alliance with him
atop the ballot.


9. (C) Concerning Preval, Manigat did not believe that the
rest of the field would allow Preval to get to the second
round. He believes that a strong anti-Preval movement exists
among FUSION, OPL, the Group of 184 and others who would
combine to thwart his campaign in the first round. He said
that it is important that Preval not make it to the second
round. However, he acknowledged that should an alliance
between Preval, Bazin and Simeus emerge, it would be
unstoppable. The Charge posited that Aristide might
intervene to break up such an alliance, but Manigat
disagreed, stating that Aristide knows his best chance for
returning to Haiti lies with a Preval presidency.


10. (C) COMMENT. Manigat's candor was refreshing, if
sobering. He may give himself too much credit if he thinks
Paul Denis, Serge Gilles and the Group of 184 will come
running to him. Independent presidential candidate Charles
Henri Baker has claimed the same groups will support him.
Nevertheless, Manigat enjoys favorable public opinion, and he
was the second most popular politician behind Aristide in a
2004 Haitian poll. Critics say he is too old. END COMMENT.
CARNEY