HAITI ELECTIONS: DECEMBER 18 TARGET DATE FOR FIRST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT AU PRINCE 002667

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR
DRL
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HA
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS: DECEMBER 18 TARGET DATE FOR FIRST
ROUND

REF: A. PORT-AU-PRINCE 2652

B. PORT-AU-PRINCE 2634

C. PORT-AU-PRINCE 2656

Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Douglas M. Griffiths for reasons 1.4(b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary: MINUSTAH, the Provisional Electoral Council
(CEP) authorities, and CEP Director General Jacques Bernard
aim to hold the first round of national elections on December
18, and have tentatively chosen January 29 for the runoff and
local elections. To meet this target, the CEP must still
approve voting center sites and staffing and , finalize
candidate lists. MINUSTAH has started to pick voting centers
and will present a list of 800 centers to the CEP by October

30. The CEP has announced it will publish provisional lists
of all candidates by Saturday, October 29, and that the list
will include Dumarsais Simeus. The government will shortly
publish the decree removing the Supreme Court from the
electoral appeals (the decree is with the printers),thus
shortening the time necessary to prepare final candidate
lists. Bernard hopes to gain immediate approval from the CEP
for new CEP by-laws that limit the role of the electoral
support committee and strengthen his own authority. In the
meantime, the Prime Minister and the Justice Minister
continued to insist over the past week that dual-national
candidates will not be allowed to run for office. The State
Commission on the Nationality of Candidates ("Commission
d'Etat sur la Nationalite des Candidats" - CENC) has
distributed a questionnaire to the presidential candidates
requiring them to document their citizenship and attest that
they hold no other nationality. Bernard's moves are
encouraging, but the CENC continues to obscure the entire
electoral process. End Summary.

Internal Conclusion: First Round December 18
--------------


2. (C) After a series of intensive consultations between
MINUSTAH, the CEP, and Jacques Bernard, all have agreed that
Sunday, December 18 is the first possible date for the first
round of national elections. According to MINUSTAH elections
chief Gerardo LeChevallier, once the CEP publishes the
provisional list of legislative candidates, elections
preparations will take 44 days: nine days for candidate
contestation; 21 days to print and deliver ballots to
MINUSTAH; and 14 days for MINUSTAH to distribute the ballots
to the provinces. To hold to this timeline, MINUSTAH
officials told their Haitian counterparts that the
provisional candidates lists must appear by October 29. The
CEP told Emboffs privately that the list could appear as late
as November 4, though this delay would consume any remaining
flexibility in their preparations timeline. MINUSTAH,s
planning assumes the removal of the Supreme Court from the
appeals process: the government reports it will promulgate
this decree on October 28.


3. (C) In addition to producing provisional candidate lists,
Bernard and the CEP must still move urgently to identify and
approve voting centers and hire staff. MINUSTAH has started
to choose voting centers without consulting the CEP -- much
as the OAS chose their own sites to jump-start registration
-- and intends to present to the CEP on October 30 a list of
roughly 800 voting centers they can secure, support, and
service as a fait acompli. Bernard is also pushing the CEP
to immediately hire all available OAS staff from the
registration effort, a decision the CEP was unable to make
prior to Bernard's arrival. Opening voting centers is also
necessary in order for the OAS to distribute voter ID cards,
though the OAS continues to work with the CEP to distribute
as many ID cards as possible with the limited distribution
infrastructure now available (ref A). At Bernard's urging,
the CEP on October 29 will hold the lottery to assign each
party a ballot number.

Bernard Now in Charge?
--------------

4. (C) Bernard has taken further steps to solidify his
authority. As detailed in ref B, upon becoming Director
General on October 15, Bernard inherited by-laws that gave
the support committee broad authority over the electoral
process and him virtually none. Bernard reportedly gained
the approval of the Prime Minster, President Alexandre, and
CEP President Mathurin on October 27 for new by-laws that
would leave the support committee in place but greatly reduce
its rule while giving Bernard executive authority within a
(once again) re-structured CEP. Bernard and the IGOH were to
seek formal CEP approval for these by-laws on October 28.
Bernard believed he had the support of six of the nine CEP
members, with Pierre-Richard Duchemin, Patrick Fequiere, and
Louis Gerson Richme opposing his increased authority.


5. (C) CEP member Patrick Fequiere announced on October 17
that the CEP would respect the decisions of the Supreme Court
and add Dumarsais Simeus and Jean Marie Cherestal to the list
of approved presidential candidates. CEP President Max
Mathurin later confirmed that statement, but support
committee member Danielle Magloire and other CEP members have
subsequently indicated that the CEP could again publish a
provisional presidential list in order to consider
information provided by the CENC. (Comment: A second
provisional list of presidential candidates would not
necessarily interfere with election planning: MINUSTAH's
timetable includes the period of contestation for the other
national candidates that could coincide with a second period
of presidential contestation. The legal basis for a second
provisional presidential list is questionable, however, and
will further aggravate the developing crisis surrounding
dual-national candidates. End Comment.)

CENC on the Job
--------------


6. (C) Both the Prime Minister and Justice Minister Dorleans
have repeatedly re-affirmed over the past week their
intention to support the CENC and disqualify candidates at
every level who have naturalized abroad or otherwise fail to
meet constitutional requirements for citizenship and
residency. Dorleans warned candidates that while the CEP had
based its rulings on "faith," the CENC would act according to
the law. The Prime Minister insisted most recently on
October 27 that the CENC would disqualify Mr. Simeus. The
CENC delivered on October 21 a questionnaire to the
presidential candidates requiring them to document family
relationships, passport information, and travel and residence
outside of Haiti. The questionnaire also requires candidates
to attest they have not "acquired by naturalization another
citizenship and thus lost Haitian citizenship," as stipulated
by the constitution. Simeus and fellow presidential
candidate Samir Mourra have stated they will not submit the
questionnaire and will challenge the CENC's legality (ref C).


Comment
--------------


7. (C) If Bernard and company can hold a first round on
December 18, February 7 remains a viable date for a
transition of power, but just barely. Apart from meeting the
immediate deadlines to produce decrees and candidate lists,
we believe the MINUSTAH timetable will depend on Bernard
successfully pushing through by-laws that allow him to
formally operate in tandem with MINUSTAH, free of operational
interference from the CEP or any other body; a de facto
takeover of the electoral process by MINUSTAH and a CEP
executive. The CENC threatens to disrupt the entire process,
however, as it moves to identify and disqualify candidates.
GRIFFITHS