HAITIANS CONSIDER LEAVING; PUT AFFAIRS IN ORDER

UNCLAS PORT AU PRINCE 001547

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL HA
SUBJECT: HAITIANS CONSIDER LEAVING; PUT AFFAIRS IN ORDER


1. While Haiti has yet to see a run on airline tickets and
long lines at the Dominican border, many Haitians have been
putting their affairs in order or at least hedging their
bets. Eight locally engaged staff have resigned at USAID in
the past four months, four since the kidnapping of a USAID
employee in early May. Within the Embassy, two Consular LES
and two GSO workers have resigned this month, and one IT
systems staff member has given notice of his impending
immigration to Canada. Approximately eight local guard force
employees have left Haiti with their families in the past few
months due to insecurity, including three bodyguards. In the
larger community, the Consular Section has recently seen an
increase in inquiries to NIV for premature visa renewals, as
well as an increase in walk-ins to ACS by Amcits looking for
visas for their domestic employees. An American Airlines
representative told EconCouns that their planes departing
Haiti are carrying at least ten percent more passengers than
normal for this time of year, which she attributed almost
entirely to emigration. Lastly, after a four month lull, the
Coast Guard has intercepted and repatriated 310 migrants in
the past month.


2. These data hardly represent statistical evidence of an
impending mass exodus. According to the Groupe d'Appui Aux
Repatries et Refugies (GARR),a non-profit that supports
refugees and repatriated Haitians, activity at the Dominican
border crossings has been normal, and more Haitians are being
returned by the Dominicans than are leaving. However,
anecdotal reports from the political elite, the business
community, and the Haitian middle class corroborate this
trend of preparation to leave Haiti. Many LES at post,
including at least 11 in the Management section, have laid
all of the groundwork for a swift and permanent departure
should the situation deteriorate further. Other Haitians who
lack the means or cannot easily uproot are at least sending
their children out of the country for the summer. In
previous instances of unrest, Haitians have scoffed at
American drawdowns and travel warnings, but they appear to be
taking this one more seriously.


3. COMMENT. One statement often heard these days is "This
is the worst it has ever been." Whether this is an example
of Haiti's affinity for hyperbole or a testament to her
remarkable tolerance for misery, room still exists for the
situation to get even worse. Haitians talk a mean game about
their plans to pack it in if things do not change, but they
rarely back it up. Post believes that the situation may
indeed be different this time. Violent crime, carjackings
and kidnappings are rampant and now appear to
indiscriminately target Haitians and foreigners alike. The
Embassy's LES are extremely worried. The economy continues
to languish and risks being crippled by gang activities in
the industrial areas. Unfortunately, the only Haitians who
are not looking for a way out are the ones who stand to
profit from the anarchy - the greedy, the corrupt, and the
power-hungry. However, Haitians are cognizant of the fact
that it would not take much to put an end to the current
disorder, which may be what is holding them in place. They
may be pinning their hopes on improved performance by
MINUSTAH or on the intervention of a third party. END
COMMENT.
FOLEY