MEDIA REACTION REPORT - LEBANON: ASSASSINATION OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000985

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU;
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA;
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - LEBANON: ASSASSINATION OF
HARIRI - SYRIA KYOTO U.S - EUROPEAN RELATIONS
PARIS - WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2005

(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. LEBANON: ASSASSINATION OF HARIRI - SYRIA

2. KYOTO

3. U.S - EUROPEAN RELATIONS

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

EXECUTIVE LIFE IS TODAY'S TOP HEADLINE STORY, WITH LE FIGARO,
LA TRIBUNE AND LES ECHOS REPORTING THAT FRANCE IS READY TO PAY
THE CALIFORNIA INSURANCE COMMISSION BETWEEN 525 AND 600
MILLION DOLLARS TO AVOID A CIVIL SUIT.

THE SECOND STORY ELICITING MUCH COMMENTARY IS THE AFTERMATH OF
HARIRI'S ASSASSINATION IN LEBANON, WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT
SYRIA'S INVOLVEMENT, AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR LEBANON'S
ELECTIONS. (SEE PART C)

AS THE KYOTO PROTOCOL GOES INTO EFFECT TODAY, MANY REPORTS AND
COMMENTARIES ANALYZE THE IMPACT OF ITS IMPLEMENTATION,
"WITHOUT THE GREATEST POLLUTER OF THEM ALL, THE U.S" AS WELL
AS THE TEATY'S LIMITATIONS. OVERALL, MOST AGREE "IT WAS ABOUT
TIME." (SEE PART C) IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX, FORMER SOCIALIST
PRIME MINISTER LAURENT FABIUS PENS AN OP-ED IN WHICH HE CALLS
FOR "ACTION RATHER THAN WORDS." "WE MUST REJOICE OVER THE
KYOTO PROTOCOL'S IMPLEMENTATION, EVEN IF IT IS ONLY PARTIAL
AND COMES LATE. BUT WHAT IS IMPORTANT IS TO ACT. INCLUDING IN
FRANCE, WHERE THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPANCY BETWEEN PRESIDENT
CHIRAC'S WORDS AND FRANCE'S REDUCED ENVIRONMENTAL BUDGET,
WHICH HAS EARNED US LAST PLACE IN EUROPE."

RIGHT-OF-CENTER LES ECHOS INTERVIEWS DEFENSE MINISTER ALLIOT-
MARIE: "THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP IS FUNDAMENTAL FOR US,
ESPECIALLY IN DEFENSE MATTERS. AND NATO IS JUST AS IMPORTANT
FOR HOW WE CONCEIVE EUROPE'S DEFENSE. I DO NOT BELIEVE THERE
IS A NEED FOR FRANCE TO RE-ENGAGE IN NATO. FRANCE IS A FULL
CONTRIBUTOR TO NATO. EUROPE'S DEFENSE INITIATIVE IS ALSO A
PLUS FOR NATO BECAUSE IF WE ARE STRONGER, WE CAN MORE EASILY
TAKE OUR PLACE IN NATO OPERATIONS. EUROPE'S DEFENSE IS NOT
IMPLEMENTED AGAINST NATO. THERE WAS AN ERROR IN THE MINDS OF
SOME AMERICANS. WHICH HAS BEEN CLEARED UP."

DANIEL VERNET IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE PREVIEWS PRESIDENT
BUSH'S TRIP TO EUROPE AND SAYS EUROPEANS NEED TO FIND
AGREEMENT ON THEIR MESSAGES TO THE PRESIDENT IN ORDER TO BE
TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:
LEBANON: ASSASSINATION OF HARIRI - SYRIA

"WASHINGTON WANTS TO PUNISH SYRIA"
PHILIPPE GELIE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/16):
"WASHINGTON DOES NOT KNOW WHO IS BEHIND HARIRI'S
ASSASSINATION, BUT IT HAS FOUND A TARGET FOR ITS ANGER: SYRIA.
IN THE EYES OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION, SYRIA HAS ENOUGH
FAULTS TO WARRANT WASHINGTON'S ANGER AND TO PAY FOR THE
CONSEQUENCES OF THIS ASSASSINATION, WHETHER IT IS BEHIND IT OR
NOT. IF WASHINGTON'S STANCE BECOMES HARSHER, ESPECIALLY WITH
ITS SYRIA ACCOUNTABILITY ACT, ONE MAY CONCLUDE THAT EL-ASSAD
HAS MADE THE WORST POSSIBLE POLICY CHOICE VIS-A-VIS
WASHINGTON. THE LIST OF CONFLICTS WAS ALREADY LONG. BUT NOW
THAT THE PEACE PROCESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS COMING OUT OF ITS
COMA, SYRIA'S AMBIVALENCE IS MAKING AMERICANS AND ISRAELIS
VERY NERVOUS."

"WHY WAS HARIRI KILLED?"
ALEXANDRE ADLER IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/16): "THE
U.S. AND FRANCE WILL PROBABLY NOT GIVE UP ON THEIR UN
RESOLUTION AGAINST DAMASCUS. AND SO THE ONLY CONCLUSION ONE
CAN ARRIVE AT IS THAT (BEHIND THIS ASSASSINATION) THERE IS THE
IN-FIGHTING FOR POWER IN DAMASCUS. OUR TEMPORARY CONCLUSION IS
THAT THE TARGET BEHIND HARIRI'S TERRIBLE ASSASSINATION IS
BACHAR EL-ASSAD AND DAMASCUS'S MODERATES. THE ASSASSINATION
ANNOUNCES A MAJOR STRATEGIC BREAK BETWEEN TWO OLD ALLIES:
SYRIA AND IRAN. THE ONE CANNOT ACCEPT THE FACT THAT IRAQ HAS
FALLEN INTO THE HANDS OF THE SHIITES AND THE OTHER CANNOT HELP
BUT GIVE IT ITS SUPPORT, MORE FOR REASONS OF TRADITION THAN
FOR REASONS OF STRATEGY."

KYOTO
"CONSERVATION"
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (02/16):
"REPHRASING A FAMOUS SAYING, IT IS A SMALL STEP FOR DIPLOMACY
AND A BIG STEP FOR MANKIND. THE KYOTO PROTOCOL'S GESTATION WAS
LONG AND PAINFUL. AFTER TWENTY YEARS, SOME POLITICIANS
-PRESIDENT BUSH THE FIRST OF MANY - ARE STILL NOT CONVINCED OF
THE URGENCY OF THE MATTER. WE CANNOT EXPECT MIRACLES FROM
KYOTO, AT BEST IT IS A FIRST STEP. MODERN SOCIETIES ARE BUILT
ON THE CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL RESOURCES, WITH THE U.S. SHOWING
THE WAY. THE POLITICAL REVOLUTION WILL BE TO IMPOSE THE NEED
TO MASTER ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND TO BASE ALL POLICIES ON THE
NEED TO CONSERVE ENERGY RESOURCES. IN THIS ERA, BEING
CONSERVATIVE IS REALLY REVOLUTIONARY."

"KYOTO, FINALLY"
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE IN ITS EDITORIAL (02/16): "THINGS ARE
CHANGING IN THE U.S. THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS GOING TO HAVE
TO COME TO TERMS WITH ITS ISOLATION ON THE INTERNATIONAL ARENA
- SOMETHING PRESIDENT BUSH IS FAMILIAR WITH - BUT ALSO WITH
AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION. PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S GOAL IS TO INCLUDE
THE U.S. IN THE FIGHT AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE IN SPITE OF HIS
OBVIOUS DISREGARD FOR THIS ISSUE."

U.S -EU RELATIONS

"THE EU 25 AND THE BUSH REVOLUTION"
DANIEL VERNET IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE (02/16): "THE
EUROPEANS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD IDEA OF WHAT PRESIDENT BUSH WILL
TELL THEM NEXT WEEK. SECRETARY RICE ALREADY GAVE THEM A
PREVIEW OF THE MAJOR THEMES. ALONG WITH THE PRESIDENT'S
INAUGURAL SPEECH, THESE TWO TEXTS SUMMARIZE THE NEO-
CONSERVATIVE RHETORIC OF THE ADMINISTRATION. ARROGANCE. HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH RECONCILIATION AND DIALOGUE WITH THE
EUROPEANS. BUT THE FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN THE SAME. THE U.S. IS
NOT A NATION OF STATUS QUOS. IT WANTS TO CHANGE THE WORLD AND
DO AWAY WITH TYRANNIES. WHAT IS NEW IS THAT THE U.S. WANTS TO
DO IT WITH EUROPE. AND THAT THE U.S. RECOGNIZES IT NEEDS THE
EUROPEANS. THE TIME HAS COME NOW FOR THE EUROPEANS TO ANSWER
THE AMERICANS. PRESIDENT BUSH IS COMING TO EUROPE, NOT TO
REPEAT WHAT HE AND CONDOLEEZZA RICE HAVE ALREADY SAID, BUT TO
LISTEN TO WHAT THE EUROPEANS HAVE TO SAY. THE EUROPEANS ARE
FOR THE MOST PART AGAINST THE TYPE OF IDEOLOGICAL LANGUAGE
PRESIDENT BUSH USES. FOR THEM, DEFENDING THE STATUS QUO IS A
NATURAL. IT IS A TOKEN OF STABILITY. THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION
DISTURBS THE EUROPEANS, WITH ITS MIX OF CHRISTIAN LANGUAGE AND
DEMOCRATIC MESSIANISM. WITH ALL THIS, ONE WONDERS WHETHER RE-
SHAPING THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP IN DEPTH WILL BE A
REALITY OR JUST SOMETHING DONE ON THE SURFACE. IF THE EU HOPES
TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY BY THE U.S. PRESIDENT, ALL OF ITS
MEMBERS NEED TO MEET AND AGREE ON WHAT THEY WILL SAY TO HIM.
THEY HAVE A WEEK TO DO IT." LEACH