Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05PARIS904
2005-02-14 10:55:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - ELECTION RESULTS

Tags:  OPRC KMDR FR 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000904 

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU;
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA;
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - ELECTION RESULTS
MUNICH SUMMIT - NATO - IRAN TOGO
PARIS - MONDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2005

(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000904

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU;
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA;
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - ELECTION RESULTS
MUNICH SUMMIT - NATO - IRAN TOGO
PARIS - MONDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2005

(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. IRAQ - ELECTION RESULTS

2. MUNICH SUMMIT - NATO - IRAN

3. TOGO

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

A WIDE VARIETY OF STORIES ARE FEATURED IN TODAY'S EDITORIALS,
INCLUDING DEVELOPMENTS IN TOGO (LE FIGARO),BUT THE IRAQI
ELECTION RESULTS MAKE THE FRONT PAGE OF RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE
FIGARO: "THE SHIITES IN POWER" AND LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION:
"THE RETURN OF THE SHIITES." FOR JEAN-PIERRE PERRIN IN
LIBERATION "THE KURDS ARE THE GREAT WINNERS OF THESE
ELECTIONS" WHILE PHILIPPE GELIE IN LE FIGARO BELIEVES THAT
"THE BATTLE FOR POWER WILL BE A BITTER AND DIFFICULT ONE. FOR
WASHINGTON, THIS IS THE END OF THE ALAWI ERA." (SEE PART C)

IN A FULL-PAGE INTERVIEW IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE
SOIR, ANTOINE SFEIR, EDITOR OF "LES CAHIERS DE L'ORIENT,"
BELIEVES THE "SHIITES WILL BE THE MASTERS OF THE ASSEMBLY. AND
THE KURDS, IRAQ'S SECOND POLITICAL POWER." HE ALSO CONTENDS
THAT "SISTANI HAS NEVER PROMOTED AN ISLAMIC STATE."

THE MUNICH SUMMIT, SCHROEDER'S PROPOSAL FOR A "HIGH-LEVEL
GROUP" TO REFLECT ON THE FUTURE OF NATO, AND U.S.-EU
POSITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON IRAN ARE DEBATED IN A FULL-PAGE
REPORT IN LE FIGARO BY CORRESPONDENT PIERRE BOCEV WHO ENTITLES
HIS REPORT: "TRANSATLANTIC MISUNDERSTANDINGS." HE ALSO QUOTES
CDU PRESIDENT ANGELA MERKEL: "IRAN WILL BECOME THE MAJOR TEST
FOR TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS." (SEE PART C)

BERNARD GUETTA IN HIS RADIO COMMENTARY TITLED "SCHROEDER'S
ANSWER TO BUSH" ATTEMPTS TO DECIPHER WHETHER PRESIDENT BUSH
AND CONDOLEEZZA RICE'S RECENT SPEECHES INDICATE A CHANGE IN
POLICY OR JUST A CHANGE IN TONE. (SEE PART C)

FINANCIAL LA TRIBUNE DEVOTES ITS LEAD TO THE EXECUTIVE LIFE
TRIAL OPENING TOMORROW IN CALIFORNIA. A TWO-PAGE REPORT
REVIEWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS, THE STAKES AND THE "50-50" CHANCE
THE FRENCH SIDE BELIEVES IT HAS OF WINNING.

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:
IRAQ - ELECTION RESULTS

"WASHINGTON WILL NOT TOLERATE A THEOCRACY"
PHILIPPE GELIE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/14): "AFTER

THE POSITIVE IMAGES OF IRAQIS STANDING ON LINE TO VOTE AND THE
MARCH FOR DEMOCRACY, NOW COMES THE TIME FOR DIFFICULTIES. THE
BATTLE FOR POWER PROMISES TO BE BITTER, NOT NECESSARILY
TRANSPARENT AND THE TYPE OF REGIME THAT WILL COME OUT IS NOT
AT ALL GUARANTEED. NO SINGLE LEADER STANDS OUT AMIDST THE
HETEROGENEOUS COALITION. THE BATTLE FOR PRIME MINISTER IS ON.
FOR WASHINGTON, THE FIRST CONSEQUENCE OF THE ELECTIONS IS THAT
THE ALAWI ERA IS COMING TO AN END. BUT THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION
SAYS IT IS READY TO TAKE THE RISK OF LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE
PROCESS, CLAIMING IT IS ALSO READY TO WITHDRAW ITS TROOPS IF
ASKED."

"DANGERS"
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (02/14): "THE FUTURE
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WILL NOT BE FULLY REPRESENTATIVE OF IRAQ
BECAUSE OF THE MASSIVE BOYCOTT BY THE SUNNIS. ALSO ONE CANNOT
DISREGARD THE FACT THAT THE AYATOLLAHS' INTENTIONS ARE
UNCLEAR, BEGINNING WITH SISTANI'S. THE RESULTS WILL STRENGTHEN
THE KURDS. THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO DANGERS OF CIVIL WAR,
TRIGGERED BY THE KURDS OR BY THE RELIGIOUS SHIITES. BUT
EXACTLY BECAUSE THESE TWO GROUPS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THEY NOW
HAVE MUCH TO LOSE, WE CAN EXPECT THEY WILL AVOID ENGAGING IN
THIS SORT OF POLITICAL ADVENTURE. THE BEST WAY TO CONSERVE
POWER IS, AFTER ALL, TO BEGIN BY SHARING IT."

MUNICH SUMMIT - NATO - IRAN
"TRANSATLANTIC MISUNDERSTANDINGS IN MUNICH"
PIERRE BOCEV IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/14): "MUNICH
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE REMEMBERED AS A MISSED OPPORTUNITY.
PRESIDENT BUSH, WHEN HE COMES TO EUROPE NEXT WEEK, WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE CONVINCED BY THE IDEA OF A `GROUP OF HIGH
LEVEL FIGURES' TO THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE OF NATO. EVEN IF
RUMSFELD HIMSELF SIGNIFIED A CHANGE OF ATTITUDE, WHEN HE SPOKE
OF `THE OLD RUMSFELD.' BUT WHILE THE TONE HAS CHANGED, THE
MUSIC SCORE REMAINS THE SAME. IF NECESSARY WASHINGTON WILL ACT
WITHOUT NATO AND WITH VOLUNTEERS, AS IT DID IN IRAQ."

"SCHROEDER'S RESPONSE TO BUSH"
BERNARD GUETTA ON GOVERNMENT-RUN FRANCE INTER RADIO (02/14):
"THERE IS A GROWING DEBATE IN EUROPE ABOUT WHETHER U.S.
DIPLOMACY HAS CHANGED OR REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. IN
MUNICH ON SATURDAY SCHROEDER'S SPEECH PARTOOK OF THAT DEBATE.
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DEBATE THERE ARE VALID ARGUMENTS,
BECAUSE IN POLITICS, WHEN THERE IS A CHANGE IN FORM IT MEANS
THERE IS A CHANGE IN CONTENT. ONE THING IS CERTAIN: PRESIDENT
BUSH HAS NOT ADOPTED MULTILATERALISM AND HE IS NOT READY TO
SUBMIT AMERICA'S POWER TO THE UNSC'S DECISIONS. AMERICA IS
STILL `THE ESSENTIAL NATION' OF MADELEINE ALBRIGHT'S DAYS. ON
THIS FUNDAMENTAL POINT, CONTINUITY IN WASHINGTON PREVAILS. WHY
THEN ARE BUSH, RICE AND NOW RUMSFELD TRYING SO HARD TO SOFTEN
THE EUROPEANS? . PRESIDENT BUSH HAS WON A WAR (IN IRAQ) AND
WHEN HE HAS RUMSFELD SAY IN MUNICH THAT `A NATION CANNOT FIGHT
EXTREMISM ALONE,' WHEN SECRETARY RICE EXPLAINS THAT `LIBERTY
CANNOT BE IMPOSED' AND THAT `TODAY'S AGENDA REQUIRES A GLOBAL
PARTNERSHIP' WE HAVE EVERY REASON TO BELIEVE THEM BECAUSE
AMERICA IS INDEED VERY MUCH ALONE. SO, WHETHER IT IS CHANGE OR
CONTINUITY, AMERICA NEEDS EUROPE. AND EUROPE HAS UNDERSTOOD
THAT THIS IS A MAJOR AND DECISIVE CHANGE. SCHROEDER
IMMEDIATELY COUNTERED BUSH'S OFFER FOR A `PARTNERSHIP' WITH A
REQUEST FOR A DIPLOMATIC AGREEMENT WITH IRAN AND FOR THE
ALLIANCE TO BECOME `A VENUE FOR DISCUSSION AND COORDINATION.'
WE MUST TAKE THE WHITE HOUSE UP ON ITS WORDS AND IMPOSE OUR
CONDITIONS."

TOGO

"PARIS BARELY CONDEMNS."
YVES THREARD IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/14): "WHAT TO DO
WITH TOGO? EVERY TIME SOMETHING GOES WRONG IN WEST AFRICA,
EVERYONE IS AFRAID THE REGION WILL BE SET ON FIRE. BUT TOGO IS
NOT THE IVORY COAST. THIS IS A COUNTRY THAT SEEMS EASIER TO
BRING BACK TO REASON. AND REASON MEANS ORGANIZING DEMOCRATIC
ELECTIONS. FRANCE HAS THE MEANS TO WEIGH IN ENOUGH TO DEMAND
THE WITHDRAWAL OF EYADEMA'S SON. EVERY INTERNATIONAL
INSTITUTION, THE EU AND THE U.S. HAVE CONDEMNED THE COUP. THE
WORD COUP WAS NOT UTTERED BY PARIS, WHICH PREFERRED TO TALK
ABOUT `PUTTING AN END TO THE TRANSITION.' CHIRAC RECENTLY SAID
THAT FRANCE COULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO BE `AFRICA'S SHERIFF.'
GRANTED. BUT ONE COULD EXPECT IT TO BE THE BEST FRIEND OF THE
RIGHT OF LAW AND DEMOCRACY. WITHOUT EXCEPTION." LEACH